It's the End of The World as we know it - and its all THEIR fault!!

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jackos
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It's the End of The World as we know it - and its all THEIR fault!!

Postby jackos » Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:57 am

Thought the latest panademic panic deserved its own thread, especially given its potential for fucking up our promotion sesson. What's the risk the EFL season would be abandoned? Can imagine games being postponed, but surely they'd be played in empty stadiums and streamed before they start canceling games or abandon the season?

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eric olthwaite
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Re: It's the End of The World as we know it - but its still going round

Postby eric olthwaite » Sun Mar 01, 2020 12:03 pm

The stuff I’ve read seems to suggest peak impact might be six to nine months rather than the next two.

We’ll see.
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eric olthwaite
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Re: It's the End of The World as we know it - but its still going round

Postby eric olthwaite » Sun Mar 01, 2020 12:06 pm

Incidentally, taking something which might - worst case - kill 10% of the global population and considering it in terms of the impact on the Championship:

:salute:
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jackos
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Re: It's the End of The World as we know it - but its still going round

Postby jackos » Sun Mar 01, 2020 12:39 pm

10%? Where did you get that from? Fatality rate is reportedly 1%? I guess that might be higher in the west with an aging population, but better health and health care should weight against that.

Cannot even being to imagine the irony of it prevented our promotion though

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Phil LUFC
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Re: It's the End of The World as we know it - but its still going round

Postby Phil LUFC » Sun Mar 01, 2020 12:48 pm

jackos wrote:10%? Where did you get that from? Fatality rate is reportedly 1%? I guess that might be higher in the west with an aging population, but better health and health care should weight against that.

Cannot even being to imagine the irony of it prevented our promotion though

Assuming it proves uncontrollable, due to low mortality rate, minimal symptoms in many cases and the long gestation period we're looking at something the average person will contract more than once over many years. 1% risk each time round.

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eric olthwaite
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Re: It's the End of The World as we know it - but its still going round

Postby eric olthwaite » Sun Mar 01, 2020 12:53 pm

jackos wrote:10%? Where did you get that from? Fatality rate is reportedly 1%? I guess that might be higher in the west with an aging population, but better health and health care should weight against that.

Cannot even being to imagine the irony of it prevented our promotion though


Can’t remember where I saw it but I think the modelling was based on assumptions about mutations which have happened previously. And yes, obviously there’s a huge imbalance in that ‘10% globally’ towards countries with poverty and poor healthcare.

Like I said, worst case
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Blackwhite
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Re: It's the End of The World as we know it - but its still going round

Postby Blackwhite » Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:12 pm

The other thing to factor into this is being ignored.

We're getting more and more zoonotic pandemics. These cross species jumps might be getting more frequent, because of intense farming or factory processes, stock transfer, who knows.

There are blood cancers likely caused by unknown zoonotic viruses which are more common among slaughterhouse workers. Just a cheery thought for your Sunday.
You know, I'm sick of following my dreams, man. I'm just going to ask where they're going and hook up with 'em later.

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Re: It's the End of The World as we know it - but its still going round

Postby Blackwhite » Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:19 pm

Anyway, relax. The Iranian clerics have got this. You just need to put a small dab of violet oil in your anus. Not a big dab, that'd be gay.
You know, I'm sick of following my dreams, man. I'm just going to ask where they're going and hook up with 'em later.

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jackos
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Re: It's the End of The World as we know it - but its still going round

Postby jackos » Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:54 pm

Phil LUFC wrote:Assuming it proves uncontrollable, due to low mortality rate, minimal symptoms in many cases and the long gestation period we're looking at something the average person will contract more than once over many years. 1% risk each time round.


Can't see how it can possibly be controllable now its spread do far, but surely its even more likely the mortality rate will sink well below 1% over time? What were the early predictions for swine flu? 11-20% of the world population were infected, but less than 200K died. Admittedly a vaccine was available quiet quickly which helped stop the spread and saved a lot if lives, but still. Spanish flu infected 25% of the world population, 2-3%, or 40-50M people died, but that was 1918 and we have a lot more knowledge about how to prevent the spread of diseases and vaccine development, and a healthier population, so anything like 10% seems extremely pessimistic/unlikely. Even 1% of the UK population is 700000 people, so it would be still grim if it got that bad.

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Re: It's the End of The World as we know it - but its still going round

Postby Blackwhite » Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:06 pm

France sounds like it's fallen. Now a ban in place on large gatherings and kissing fingers.
You know, I'm sick of following my dreams, man. I'm just going to ask where they're going and hook up with 'em later.


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jackos
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Re: It's the End of The World as we know it - but its still going round

Postby jackos » Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:17 pm

Blackwhite wrote:France sounds like it's fallen. Now a ban in place on large gatherings and kissing fingers.


Which brings me back to football, the French ban is for indoor events with more than 5000 attendees, so it does not impact football matches. Do you have any idea why their ban only relates to indoor gatherings? The WHO has rrcommended over 60ies avoid crowded places, there's very few places less crowded than a football match - why on earth have the French only banned indoor events?

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Re: It's the End of The World as we know it - but its still going round

Postby Blackwhite » Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:33 pm

No idea. Several aspects of the national medical responses look like chaos and indecision until you guess that they just prefer the hit to be on the population figures rather than the economy.
You know, I'm sick of following my dreams, man. I'm just going to ask where they're going and hook up with 'em later.

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OWETB
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Re: It's the End of The World as we know it - but its still going round

Postby OWETB » Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:35 pm

jackos wrote:
Blackwhite wrote:France sounds like it's fallen. Now a ban in place on large gatherings and kissing fingers.


Which brings me back to football, the French ban is for indoor events with more than 5000 attendees, so it does not impact football matches. Do you have any idea why their ban only relates to indoor gatherings? The WHO has rrcommended over 60ies avoid crowded places, there's very few places less crowded than a football match - why on earth have the French only banned indoor events?


I'm guessing that the air doesn't move very freely indoors even with aircon. So the air is more stagnant and not blowing about. Also, a possibility might be that if it gets into aircon systems it could act like legionella and become a breeding ground.

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Blackwhite
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Re: It's the End of The World as we know it - but its still going round

Postby Blackwhite » Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:40 pm

No, it's not bacterial. Is an RNA virus. Killed by UV. Outdoors means more UV maybe..?
You know, I'm sick of following my dreams, man. I'm just going to ask where they're going and hook up with 'em later.

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OWETB
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Re: It's the End of The World as we know it - but its still going round

Postby OWETB » Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:41 pm


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Quiffy
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Re: It's the End of The World as we know it - but its still going round

Postby Quiffy » Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:55 pm

Blackwhite wrote:No, it's not bacterial. Is an RNA virus. Killed by UV. Outdoors means more UV maybe..?


can you tell us a bit more about this RNA stuff?

i was on a plane a week ago, so i was thinking along the same lines as b@stard when i felt a bit iffy on friday morning, suspected i had a temperature so i got it checked out. it shows i maybe don't know enough about this.

(it was fine - 36.7, possibly just the result of one too many the previous night and being a drama queen)
increasing doubt, decreasing hope, even my imaginary friend went and changed his mind.

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Blackwhite
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Re: It's the End of The World as we know it - but its still going round

Postby Blackwhite » Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:26 pm

It's a virus, not bacterial, for a start. So antibiotics don't work. Some antivirals might.

Second, it's genome is carried on a different nucleic acid to ours; its is ribonucleic, ours deoxyribonucleic.

Ours is tougher, more resistant to damage. Theirs is delicate, very easy to damage. [Anyone who's worked in the lab purifying both materials will have slight PTSD from their experiences learning to make good RNA.]

Briefly, it's a description of how the virus replicates in the host. Anything else specific?
You know, I'm sick of following my dreams, man. I'm just going to ask where they're going and hook up with 'em later.

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Quiffy
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Re: It's the End of The World as we know it - but its still going round

Postby Quiffy » Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:42 pm

Blackwhite wrote:It's a virus, not bacterial, for a start. So antibiotics don't work. Some antivirals might.

Second, it's genome is carried on a different nucleic acid to ours; its is ribonucleic, ours deoxyribonucleic.

Ours is tougher, more resistant to damage. Theirs is delicate, very easy to damage. [Anyone who's worked in the lab purifying both materials will have slight PTSD from their experiences learning to make good RNA.]

Briefly, it's a description of how the virus replicates in the host. Anything else specific?

you've gone in a bit strong there, maybe overestimating my knowledge base on this.

i was wondering what's the best way of keeping my loved ones safe beyond washing our hands, which seems to be the only advice i've heard?

my biology teacher was a twat, i dropped it as soon as i could.
increasing doubt, decreasing hope, even my imaginary friend went and changed his mind.

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Blackwhite
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Re: It's the End of The World as we know it - but its still going round

Postby Blackwhite » Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:46 pm

Wash your hands. That's it. Stay away from crowds or people in any numbers ever, really. Costs outweigh the benefits pretty fast.

It seems to be airborne, mild symptoms on most people, more significant or worrying if you have an impaired immune system or compromised respiratory system.

It might become a regular thing, like cold or flu season. Add COVID season (series?).

Current estimate about 1% fatality rate BUT there may be WAY more people silently infected, which would mean it was much safer.

Any help?
You know, I'm sick of following my dreams, man. I'm just going to ask where they're going and hook up with 'em later.


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