Can the looming financial Armageddon be averted?

[eric olthwaite]

Ask nine 'leading' economic analysts whether we're heading for another crash. Collate the answers and:

Not a fucking clue

[Tycipa]

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37582150

It's them damn computers wot did it.....but no, we won't ask them why the pound tanked we'll ask a human coz them's the cunts wot wrote the algorithm and they can comfort us, no?

NO you fucking can't.

So you can basically plant a load of stories on the interweb and the pound will tank because AI. Lovely.

[Mustafaster]

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37582150

It's them damn computers wot did it.....but no, we won't ask them why the pound tanked we'll ask a human coz them's the cunts wot wrote the algorithm and they can comfort us, no?

NO you fucking can't.

So you can basically plant a load of stories on the interweb and the pound will tank because AI. Lovely.

When the next crash comes this is what it will look like. It will all be over before anyone realises it's happening.

[Son of Leeds]

Yep. This reminds of a post by - I think - Eric who said he'd vote for the person who said, The global market is crazy, I haven't a clue what's going on.

There are many problems with the status of economists. Traditionally, the compulsory reading for senior politicians was history. Government was not seen as primarily an economic manager: the economy was one part of its work. Then came 1990 and The End of History as Fukayama put it and Business - that vague abstraction - was suddenly the new Catholic Church, and Economists its priests.

Economics is of course a valid subject. The danger is when it claims the surety of a science. When Physicists disagree they at least understand what lack of evidence is responsible for their disagreement. The reverence for Economics among politicians has put so many of them close to power that they compete for authority - by claiming a certainty for what is essentially an ideological position. Instead of saying, Well, minister, these seem to be the risks and advantages for your policies, and these are the groups that will most likely benefit and these other groups are the ones that will likely suffer, but do look at he work of so-and-so who comes to a different conclusion, they say, You have an imperative to follow these economic principles. This will save the world.

That Korean chap at Cambridge (23 Things They Don't Tell You About Capitalism) is more honest. All Economy is Political Economy.

It's the secondary consequences you have to look out for.

It substitutes abstract mathematical formulas for clarity of thought. An example: May says, following the fashion since Blair, that they government will rule for fairness for all. She follows the modern 'liberal' Adam Smithian idea that with correct capitalist policies you have have an automatic justice. Merit will get its reward by a law of nature. But the historic function of government is to help citizens negotiate conflicts of interest so that each gets enough of what they want to preserve social order. You cannot have a system where, to use her words, everyone can fulfil their aspirations. We can all fulfil enough of them to truckle along. Marx, though wrong on most things, understood that bit, at least. The contradictions become clear when real policies are put in place. The government believes in merit, and free markets - but will control immigration. The government will re-introduce grammar schools for social mobility, but will not increase inheritance tax. The government will end discrimination against minorities, but will not consider 'affirmative action'. One could go on.

The fact that economics do not agree does not invalidate the subject. It just points out its limitations.

[SimonB]

I went to a business dinner last night and the speaker was the senior economist of one of the big banks and it was a very depressing outlook.

A hard brexit will significantly hit the city of London, who pay over 10% of all UK tax revenue and employ over 1 million people. His forecast is that we will have parity with the dollar and drop below 1€ to the £. This drop wont significantly help exports as we don't make much and the things we do make involve a large amount of imported materials which will go up in price.

Not a very inspiring picture of our economic future but still we will have our country back

[eric olthwaite]

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37582150

It's them damn computers wot did it.....but no, we won't ask them why the pound tanked we'll ask a human coz them's the cunts wot wrote the algorithm and they can comfort us, no?

NO you fucking can't.

So you can basically plant a load of stories on the interweb and the pound will tank because AI. Lovely.

When the next crash comes this is what it will look like. It will all be over before anyone realises it's happening.

One of my mates is a software bunny for a major bank and his job is writing / refining these algorithms. He's kind of a Corbynite really and his stance varies between fuck it, it's a (well paid) job and mild amusement at the thought that when the entire global financial structure collapses, it'll likely be his fault.

I dunno if anyone saw this story about two financial trading outfits vying to spend millions on transmission masts simply to shave a few microseconds off trading times. It's fucking nuts.

[Mindo]

Lloyds and Easyjet make up half of my pisspoor share portfolio. Been an expensive few days/weeks

[barry white]

The recent melt down of the GBP exposed BOE Stupidity. The first Central Bank goes down, the rest will follow. Time for a major correction soon. FTSE top's probably not in yet. They'll probably get it over 7200. Then short and wait for the correction. Might as nick a few quid out of it.

Mindo - personally I don't think EasyJet is anywhere near the bottom yet.

[Phatphil65]

Lloyds and Easyjet make up half of my pisspoor share portfolio. Been an expensive few days/weeks

Tough shit. Try investing in people not stocks.

[Mustafaster]

Lloyds and Easyjet make up half of my pisspoor share portfolio. Been an expensive few days/weeks

Tough shit. Try investing in people not stocks.

Harsh, but fair.

[Mindo]

Lloyds and Easyjet make up half of my pisspoor share portfolio. Been an expensive few days/weeks

Tough shit. Try investing in people not stocks.

Harsh, but fair.

Is it?

[Mindo]

Tough shit. Try investing in people not stocks.

Harsh, but fair.

Is it?

By which I mean, I appreciate the benefits of investing in people versus big business but how does PhatPhil know how much I've invested in shares versus, say, how much I've invested in local start-ups or friends businesses, or given to charity? I'm sat in a 2 and a half bed semi in the West Midlands and I had a few shares in well known companies who pay dividends, I'm not running a hedge fund or trading made up derivatives!

[barry white]

Tough shit. Try investing in people not stocks.

"Since 1991 Investors in People has set the standard for better people management. Our internationally recognised accreditation is held by 14,000 organisations ...".

I'm guessing you're not referring to this shite management spiel

So what is this investing in people? Giving people a job to make money for you, i.e. capitalism?

[jackos]

So what is this investing in people? Giving people a job to make money for you, i.e. capitalism?

Was thinking the same thing? Perhaps he means slavery? People trafficking. Lot of money in that at the moment supposedly.

[barry white]

FTSE’s at all-time high. Record 12 day winning streak. 7320. Everything’s fine. Honest.

[Blackwhite]

Someone actually said to me the other week, "Maybe everything's going to be ok with this Brexit business, I mean, the world hasn't ended, has it?". This person is English, works in a sector massively affected by capital availability, is in a reasonable amount of debt, and is budgeting for a bonus they may not get.





It's coming, I reckon. Recovery my arse.

[OWETB]

According to Ann Pettifor, the next financial crisis 'has begun and will be worse than 2008 crash'

Get your bunkers filled.

[OWETB]

Shares slump as bond markets flash warning signals not seen since financial crisis

[Vampire]

Shares slump as bond markets flash warning signals not seen since financial crisis

Is this going to be an annual warning from you, OWETB?

This one is interesting in that the suggested predictive capacity of yield curve inversion can become a self fulfilling prophecy - but to add some perspective:

Just because yield curves have inverted immediately before the last 8 US recessions doesn’t mean every inversion has been followed by recession. 3 month versus 10 year bonds inverted back in March without generating the same reaction we’re seeing this time. And 8 US recessions isn’t a huge data set - the predictive power of yield curve inversion is far less pronounced if you include countries outside the US.

At present, in the real economy, most developed countries are experiencing growth, low unemployment, low inflation, low interest rates, wages finally ticking up, and low oil prices. So, consumers have money to spend and it doesn’t feel like a global recession is imminent - though the UK may be a special case due to Brexit.

But the big fear is fear itself - there is certainly plenty of anxiety - and the latest yield curve inversion has obviously added to it. And there are plenty of good reasons for anxiety - geopolitical risk, trade wars and protectionism, slowing growth in China, poor economic policy by incompetent Governments, and debt levels to name a few.

Fear and anxiety can feed on themselves so there are reasons to worry. But it’s also worth remembering that past recessions have often been preceded by (and in part caused by) complacency and reckless risk taking. A bit of anxiety and caution by central banks, investors, and firms may not be a bad thing - provided it doesn’t become a panic.

[jackos]

A bit of financial Armageddon would be a nice break from Trumpecnomics and Farage BS