Occasional statto attack

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Chieftain626
Joined: Sat Sep 09, 2017 3:56 pm
Location: Detroit, MI

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Chieftain626 » Fri Mar 15, 2019 2:33 pm

Ponte wrote:
eric olthwaite wrote:Ben Mayhew, the stats blog fella, says here that we're 90% certain of auto if we beat Blunts, 50/50 if we lose.

No pressure there, then.

:puker:


Football is constantly on my mind atm. It's horrible


this

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eric olthwaite
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 10:14 pm
Location: Over there, behind that bush

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby eric olthwaite » Fri Mar 15, 2019 2:40 pm

You're not the only ones.

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Phil LUFC
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2008 12:26 pm
Location: Scunthorpe

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Phil LUFC » Fri Mar 15, 2019 2:43 pm

eric olthwaite wrote:Ben Mayhew, the stats blog fella, says here that we're 90% certain of auto if we beat Blunts, 50/50 if we lose.

No pressure there, then.

:puker:

I've been following his stats fairly clearly in recent weeks, what's apparent in his model is that points on the board make a huge difference (for obvious reasons). Us and the blades are right at the top of his xG model so I assume he's projecting a draw within his existing forecasts. But he'll pretty much also be forecasting a high probably of wins for each of the top 3 in almost all remaining games so I take it with a pinch of salt.

We dropped over 10% after losing to QPR for example, not really because of that game but because it put us 2nd with no games in hand. We didn't gain anything like as much after beating West Brom because it ultimately changed nothing (I bet the blades draw with Wednesday caused the bigger part of that shift that weekend).

Still, massive game and I've not been able to park it to the side in the way I have other games recently.

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the flying pig
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 8:24 am

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby the flying pig » Fri Mar 15, 2019 2:51 pm

Phil LUFC wrote:...massive game...


er, yes.

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Blackwhite
Joined: Sun Feb 24, 2008 1:07 am
Location: Arse end of nowhere

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Blackwhite » Fri Mar 15, 2019 3:16 pm

I'm lurching from stress event to stress event. Last ones were last night, next one is in forty minutes, then tomorrow lunchtime, then Sunday, then Monday...


It's not right.
You know, I'm sick of following my dreams, man. I'm just going to ask where they're going and hook up with 'em later.

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dirty leeds
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 12:13 pm
Location: London

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby dirty leeds » Fri Mar 15, 2019 6:30 pm

Plenty of family stress going on for me of late, so Leeds is my escape. I'm enjoying it.

Mr Reality
Joined: Mon Apr 02, 2012 2:17 pm

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Mr Reality » Fri Mar 15, 2019 7:24 pm

Phil LUFC wrote:
eric olthwaite wrote:Ben Mayhew, the stats blog fella, says here that we're 90% certain of auto if we beat Blunts, 50/50 if we lose.

No pressure there, then.

:puker:

I've been following his stats fairly clearly in recent weeks, what's apparent in his model is that points on the board make a huge difference (for obvious reasons). Us and the blades are right at the top of his xG model so I assume he's projecting a draw within his existing forecasts. But he'll pretty much also be forecasting a high probably of wins for each of the top 3 in almost all remaining games so I take it with a pinch of salt.

We dropped over 10% after losing to QPR for example, not really because of that game but because it put us 2nd with no games in hand. We didn't gain anything like as much after beating West Brom because it ultimately changed nothing (I bet the blades draw with Wednesday caused the bigger part of that shift that weekend).

Still, massive game and I've not been able to park it to the side in the way I have other games recently.


I think the pressure is all on them. They have to come and avoid defeat but realistically they need the win.

Will be interesting to see if they struggle physically after playing with 10 the other night.

I think it could be a little higher 87 needed given current form. 89 possibly.

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eric olthwaite
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 10:14 pm
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby eric olthwaite » Fri Mar 15, 2019 8:49 pm

Mr Reality wrote:I think it could be a little higher 87 needed given current form. 89 possibly.


There are two particular precedents I’ve looked at for tight three way battles: 1998 and 2012. In both cases teams traded places right up to the wire :pale: It seems likely that in this situation there’ll be an acceleration in PPG for the top two for the last few games - at least relative to a situation where two teams are away and cruising. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 92/90 for the auto places and unfortunately I don’t think anything will be fixed until the last game or two.

Wakefield White
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 11:57 pm
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Wakefield White » Fri Mar 15, 2019 9:30 pm

eric olthwaite wrote:
Mr Reality wrote:I think it could be a little higher 87 needed given current form. 89 possibly.


There are two particular precedents I’ve looked at for tight three way battles: 1998 and 2012. In both cases teams traded places right up to the wire :pale: It seems likely that in this situation there’ll be an acceleration in PPG for the top two for the last few games - at least relative to a situation where two teams are away and cruising. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 92/90 for the auto places and unfortunately I don’t think anything will be fixed until the last game or two.


Of course it won’t be settled until the last game or two, it’s Leeds FFS! :cheers:
Fuck you Rod Liddle, fuck you in your cunting fuckface you fucking third division cunt!
(courtesy of Ponte)

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Phil LUFC
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2008 12:26 pm
Location: Scunthorpe

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Phil LUFC » Sat Mar 16, 2019 8:33 pm

eric olthwaite wrote:Ben Mayhew, the stats blog fella, says here that we're 90% certain of auto if we beat Blunts, 50/50 if we lose.

No pressure there, then.

:puker:

45%

Chieftain626
Joined: Sat Sep 09, 2017 3:56 pm
Location: Detroit, MI

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Chieftain626 » Sat Mar 16, 2019 9:48 pm

Going to be a long 2 weeks, think Norwich have more than enough to carry on at their current rate. Didn’t see much from Sheffield to think they dare going to be unbeaten for the rest of the season. Just have to dig in now and win more than they do.

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MightyWhite
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 11:38 am
Location: Notts

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby MightyWhite » Sat Mar 16, 2019 9:57 pm

Sheff Utd are a fantastic team and are incredibly well organised but, yeah, the hope has got to be that they’re due a run of bad luck. From what I’ve seen of Wednesday away, a bit of the Brentford game (admittedly with 10 men) and today their great recent defensive record owes as much to the opposition spurning chances as it does great defending
Keep Fighting
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jackos
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 7:49 am
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby jackos » Sun Mar 17, 2019 8:41 am

MightyWhite wrote:their great recent defensive record owes as much to the opposition spurning chances as it does great defending


Five in defence, or was it 8, dirty bastards, looked like they were purposely trying to fuck Bamfordz knee at times, should have had a red and a few more yellows. All that. They waited for our mistake and we lost. 3p is all that matters at this point in the season.

rss1969
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2013 3:52 pm

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby rss1969 » Sun Mar 17, 2019 10:43 am

jackos wrote:
MightyWhite wrote:their great recent defensive record owes as much to the opposition spurning chances as it does great defending


Five in defence, or was it 8, dirty bastards, looked like they were purposely trying to fuck Bamfordz knee at times, should have had a red and a few more yellows. All that. They waited for our mistake and we lost. 3p is all that matters at this point in the season.


In all fairness we would have been delighted with that win if it were the other way around.

They should have had men sent off in both games but finish half of the decent chances we created and the game would have been secured by half time. We only have ourselves to blame for that.

The lack of killer instinct in front of goal is our biggest opponent, we play teams off the park but cant turn that dominance into goals.

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Phil LUFC
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2008 12:26 pm
Location: Scunthorpe

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Phil LUFC » Mon Apr 01, 2019 9:02 pm

This may have been true 2 weeks ago anyway but I'm sorry to report we've failed in our bid to finish 15th this season. Worst we can do now is 9th* as there's 2 games to come between Forest, Preston and Wednesday (maybe 8th, I can't be arsed to work through the many other head to heads

*without engineering a big points deduction of course.

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Quiffy
Joined: Thu May 01, 2008 6:56 pm

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Quiffy » Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:16 am

here's the last 5 games, including norwich's, and if you look at the form of each opponent over the last 5 games and tally the amount of points they've collected from them.....(eg wednesday have collected 7 points from their last 5 away games)
Image
for Leeds
sheff weds 7pts
wigan 1 pt
brentford 10pts
villa 13pts
ipswich 3 pts
Total of 34pts

for sheffU
millwall 6pts
forest 2pts
hull 13pts
ipswich 6pts
stoke 6pts
Total of 33pts

so basically, if you look at form both run in's are pretty much equal. it's worth noting we're at home and away on the same weeks when they are, so there's no benefit there, it's just that they play before us on 4 of those 5 occasions. a gnat's chaff springs to mind.
increasing doubt, decreasing hope, even my imaginary friend went and changed his mind.

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Quiffy
Joined: Thu May 01, 2008 6:56 pm

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Quiffy » Mon Apr 15, 2019 6:17 pm

so we won what was on paper our 3rd most difficult game of the 5 :thumbl:

for the remaining 4 including the effects of the latest run of games, looking at wigan's last 5 away and brentford's last 5 at home etc
for Leeds
wigan 1 pt
brentford 10pts
villa 13 pts
ipswich 3 pts
total 27pts

for sheffU
forest 2pts
hull 13 pts
ipswich 6pts
stoke 7pts
total 28pts

so again fuck all in it.
increasing doubt, decreasing hope, even my imaginary friend went and changed his mind.

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eric olthwaite
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 10:14 pm
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby eric olthwaite » Mon Apr 15, 2019 6:31 pm

Interesting that the next two opponents for both of us are well matched.

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Quiffy
Joined: Thu May 01, 2008 6:56 pm

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Quiffy » Mon Apr 15, 2019 6:48 pm

eric olthwaite wrote:Interesting that the next two opponents for both of us are well matched.


there are so many variables at play, it's almost meaningless to do what i did, it was just doing my head in when people were squabbling about who had the easier run in, hence me doing this. i reckon their injuries are far more significant than what i've looked at above, especially to duffy, as i said, as he was their heartbeat against us.

i have to admit, although there's fuck all statistically in the overall form of both sets of opponents, i'd rather we were playing hull then ipswich in the 2nd and 3rd games rather than brentford and then villa. i hope hull beat west brom on friday to keep them interested in the play-offs. in those last games, stoke are so mid-table they'll be on holiday that their better form is meaningless.

probably the most important variable is which Leeds turn up, the one that takes too many touches or the more decisive and effective, like we've seen in the last two games.
increasing doubt, decreasing hope, even my imaginary friend went and changed his mind.

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Blackwhite
Joined: Sun Feb 24, 2008 1:07 am
Location: Arse end of nowhere

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Blackwhite » Mon Apr 15, 2019 9:37 pm

I'm quitting this thread for my health. Cheers.
You know, I'm sick of following my dreams, man. I'm just going to ask where they're going and hook up with 'em later.


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