Planning for next season

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Yeboah
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2012 11:06 am

Re: Planning for next season

Postby Yeboah » Wed May 22, 2019 9:23 am

eric olthwaite wrote:
Yeboah wrote:It could be argued that a fluke run before Xmas put us in the position we got to and post Xmas is the norm. in which case it’s £6m for 9th/10th followed by fire sales and relegation battles.


No, it couldn’t.

There’s no such thing as a 25+ game ‘fluke run’.

There’s no such thing is a ‘norm’ either. A season is a reflection of its own parameters.



A team or an individual has a level which they most often perform at. That’s their norm.....performance wise.

Leeds pre Xmas and post Xmas were effectively 2 different teams, but were only 13 points different (per 23 games)..... that can easily be explained by rub of the green, decisions etc.

Sheff U away, QPR home being 2 examples I can think of immediately.

Yeboah
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2012 11:06 am

Re: Planning for next season

Postby Yeboah » Wed May 22, 2019 9:24 am

Tommy wrote:Had a think for a few days and I've come to realise that Bielsa and Radrizzani have a couple of things in common (and no doubt some stuff that they are polar opposites on) - they have both done well for us and I fully believe they've both contributed to our eventual success in the coming years but I don't think either will achieve it here. It's weird because I don't want either to go (which is as well because it seems neither are) but as long as they are here I think we'll always fall just short for a few frustrating reasons (most of which are in themselves admirable/sensible traits).

Radrizzani

Money
- It's good to live within our means and stay on the right side of FFP.
- It seems extraordinary to say it given that he's invested so much money getting us this far but he's not quite wealthy enough to outright own a club at the level of Leeds United, ostensibly challenging for promotion.

Recruitment
- It's gratifying that he has so much faith in Orta given the previous turnover of staff. He's also brought in some good players and particularly has improved the U23s and below.
- He will likely never replace Orta, who is a decent enough DOF but has to accept responsibility for the number of fairly middling players we've brought in at considerable expense. As far as I can work out under Orta we've spent about £30m in such players excluding the wages spent on players signed on a free or loaned in.

Networking
- Seemingly has lots of worldwide contacts through his media sports concerns.
- The connections he has made for us (Qatar, Myanmar, 49ers?) don't seem to actually go anywhere or have any obvious material benefit to our club.

Bielsa

Tactics
- Has unflinching faith in his system and when it works, produces wonderfully entertaining attacking football.
- Seems to lack versatility and his preferred system doesn't seem to have a mode other than attack, which is sometimes counterproductive in the Championship.

Fitness
- Demands that players are extremely fit and his sides seem to win more games in the final phase.
- Sometimes places too much emphasis on athleticism, thus having little room for less mobile but more creative players. Also seems to run his players into the ground (see below).

Squad
- Keeps a small squad and includes young developing players when necessary.
- Perhaps too attached to his chosen few, to the extent that the first team favourites can start to show signs of tiring. Sometimes reluctant to use youth when it would seem to be obvious.

It could be that I'm still feeling down due to the particularly Leeds-y way we fucked up the season (even though actually we did much better than I'd dared to hope) but given all of the above and specifically the fact that we're almost definitely going to lose at least a couple of our few good players and be stuck with quite a few who I now strongly suspect aren't quite good enough (ironically most of whom we paid a small fortunate for and continue to do so), I think next season will be a bit of pisser. No chance of relegation or owt but I suspect that the top two will continue to elude us and perhaps a season where we spend most of the season hovering around the mid-table beckons.



One obvious benefit is that if the club had gone up then it was already sold to the 49ers.

Yeboah
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2012 11:06 am

Re: Planning for next season

Postby Yeboah » Wed May 22, 2019 9:26 am

eric olthwaite wrote:
Yeboah wrote:
eric olthwaite wrote:So let me get this straight. There is only success - ie promotion - or failure - ie not promotion. Given that only three teams can be promoted, there is a necessary imperative to replace the manager of the other twenty one teams, which fail, every season. Okay. Doesn’t seem like a particularly sustainable model.


Depends if any of those managers are getting paid c.10% of the turnover to not get promoted. Sustainable?

You pay top dollar to get tangible results surely?

Otherwise....what’s the point.?


Equivocation then. It isn’t win or lose, it’s conditional on how much the manager is paid. What’s an acceptable salary for a manager to deliver a third place finish?



The salary sets the expectation surely, like it does in any job?

This plan with Bielsa in charge threatens the existence of the club, if it doesn’t work.

If Radz has had enough next year, he could walk away from funding it, leaving the club with £40m debt and a bau operation that is massively overspending.

Yeboah
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2012 11:06 am

Re: Planning for next season

Postby Yeboah » Wed May 22, 2019 9:32 am

Tommy wrote:But with Bielsa he virtually pays for himself. Almost literally given that he paid all the fines etc (probably £300k). Add the improved gate receipts and match day revenue, not to mention the improvement of worldwide visibility to the club and more importantly the value his staff have (at least in theory) added to some of our players. I'm one of those people who believed that Phillips was always very good but regardless of who gets credit, this past season probably quadrupled his worth if not more. I should imagine we'll see more of the same this coming season with some of the Academy graduates.

Compare that to the money we've pissed away on some really lukewarm footballers of late and quibbling over a few million seems daft. In order to work out how much we've spent on players who I think ultimately aren't quite good enough and/or have not shown their worth or been otherwise disappointing, I compiled this list of signings under Radrizzani/Orta excluding the two that I think worked out, Klich (£1.5m) and Roberts (£3m) -

Buys

Bamford - £7m
Forshaw - £4.5m
Douglas - £3m
Saiz - £3m
Alioski - £2.5m
De Bock - £1.5m
Cibicki - £1.5m
Grot - £1.5m
Sacko - £1.5m
Ekuban - £500k
Wiedwald - £400k

Significant Wages/Loan Fees

Casilla
Harrison
Brown
Blackman
Baker
Anita
Pennington
Borthwick-Jackson
Ideguchi
Lonergan
Lasogga

Not to say that the above are/were totally without merit or even bad signings on paper, they've just not (yet?) proved to be as good as I'd have hoped or have otherwise disappointed at crucial times etc.



No he doesn’t....

Average attendance has gone up what... 8k?

That’s c £3m per year....his coaching staff cost is north of £6m

Plus the players I assume he wanted have now put the wage bill up massively.

Agree with the value of some players but like a house, it only matters if we sell them.

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MightyWhite
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 11:38 am
Location: Notts

Re: Planning for next season

Postby MightyWhite » Wed May 22, 2019 10:29 am

Moscow’s bit on the latest pod in regards to expected goals gave me a lot of encouragement for next season. I know stats can be deceptive but being top of both the expected goals scored and conceded rankings helps narrow things down our efforts to the final third of the pitch as opposed to a root and branch upgrade across the whole squad. 3 high quality attacking players to push us over the hump, anything else is a bonus
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Yeboah
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2012 11:06 am

Re: Planning for next season

Postby Yeboah » Wed May 22, 2019 10:46 am

MightyWhite wrote:Moscow’s bit on the latest pod in regards to expected goals gave me a lot of encouragement for next season. I know stats can be deceptive but being top of both the expected goals scored and conceded rankings helps narrow things down our efforts to the final third of the pitch as opposed to a root and branch upgrade across the whole squad. 3 high quality attacking players to push us over the hump, anything else is a bonus


Maybe, maybe not.......any plan for the money needed?

And if we hadn’t conceded 4 goals in 50 mins in the last game, we may still be going to Wembley.

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jackos
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 7:49 am
Location: Stockholm

Re: Planning for next season

Postby jackos » Wed May 22, 2019 11:20 am

dirty leeds wrote:Norwich and Sheff U both played good football AND were promoted. We played good football and were not. Boro played crap football and didn't do so well.


Possibly missing Yebo's point though I think. The Blunts might have played some nice football, Man City play nice football, wasn't the point also that their owners might not be that the more PC of us would call "nice"? We all know how City have manipulate FFP rules, and the Blunts are owned by a Saudi and have connections to the bin Laden's. No-one gives a fuck when it's them. They're a great little club managed by a genius, but Saudi ownership isn't what a lot of Ballers seem to dream of.

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MightyWhite
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 11:38 am
Location: Notts

Re: Planning for next season

Postby MightyWhite » Wed May 22, 2019 11:26 am

Yeboah wrote:
MightyWhite wrote:Moscow’s bit on the latest pod in regards to expected goals gave me a lot of encouragement for next season. I know stats can be deceptive but being top of both the expected goals scored and conceded rankings helps narrow things down our efforts to the final third of the pitch as opposed to a root and branch upgrade across the whole squad. 3 high quality attacking players to push us over the hump, anything else is a bonus


Maybe, maybe not.......any plan for the money needed?

And if we hadn’t conceded 4 goals in 50 mins in the last game, we may still be going to Wembley.


True about the Derby game. But I suppose when funnelling your funds in to certain areas you have to make that differentiation between looking at the defence as one that conceded more than 2 goals on only a handful of occasions over 48 games and one that bottled it on the very last game. I’m happy to go with the former as a policy, without being opposed to getting an upgrade here and there if there’s resources left over. We evidently could do better than Cooper and probably even Ayling if push comes to shove.

Like everybody else other than the ownership I have absolutely no idea what the position will be in terms of funding, I guess we’ll see.
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dirty leeds
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 12:13 pm
Location: London

Re: Planning for next season

Postby dirty leeds » Wed May 22, 2019 11:29 am

jackos wrote:
dirty leeds wrote:Norwich and Sheff U both played good football AND were promoted. We played good football and were not. Boro played crap football and didn't do so well.


Possibly missing Yebo's point though I think. The Blunts might have played some nice football, Man City play nice football, wasn't the point also that their owners might not be that the more PC of us would call "nice"? We all know how City have manipulate FFP rules, and the Blunts are owned by a Saudi and have connections to the bin Laden's. No-one gives a fuck when it's them. They're a great little club managed by a genius, but Saudi ownership isn't what a lot of Ballers seem to dream of.


No I wasn't: we were having a discussion about his proffered options of promotion or a good style of football that failed to get promotion. My reply was simply that you don't have to choose - you can also get promotion by playing good football, so his was a false dichotomy. It had fuck all to do with ownership or FFP rules. Perhaps you're confusing my email/discussion with Yeboah with someone else's?

Yeboah
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2012 11:06 am

Re: Planning for next season

Postby Yeboah » Wed May 22, 2019 11:32 am

MightyWhite wrote:
Yeboah wrote:
MightyWhite wrote:Moscow’s bit on the latest pod in regards to expected goals gave me a lot of encouragement for next season. I know stats can be deceptive but being top of both the expected goals scored and conceded rankings helps narrow things down our efforts to the final third of the pitch as opposed to a root and branch upgrade across the whole squad. 3 high quality attacking players to push us over the hump, anything else is a bonus


Maybe, maybe not.......any plan for the money needed?

And if we hadn’t conceded 4 goals in 50 mins in the last game, we may still be going to Wembley.


True about the Derby game. But I suppose when funnelling your funds in to certain areas you have to make that differentiation between looking at the defence as one that conceded more than 2 goals on only a handful of occasions over 48 games and one that bottled it on the very last game. I’m happy to go with the former as a policy, without being opposed to getting an upgrade here and there if there’s resources left over. We evidently could do better than Cooper and probably even Ayling if push comes to shove.

Like everybody else other than the ownership I have absolutely no idea what the position will be in terms of funding, I guess we’ll see.


There are no funds....

Zero, nada, zilch

Phil Hay reporting operating loss of £20m this season.

I don’t think people understand the gravity of the finances

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MightyWhite
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 11:38 am
Location: Notts

Re: Planning for next season

Postby MightyWhite » Wed May 22, 2019 12:03 pm

We’ve always had operating losses and still brought players. Every team in the Championship has an operating loss but still brought players. Let’s see what happens hey?
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Tycipa
Joined: Thu Jul 19, 2012 4:39 pm

Re: Planning for next season

Postby Tycipa » Wed May 22, 2019 12:39 pm

jackos wrote:
dirty leeds wrote:Norwich and Sheff U both played good football AND were promoted. We played good football and were not. Boro played crap football and didn't do so well.


Possibly missing Yebo's point though I think. The Blunts might have played some nice football, Man City play nice football, wasn't the point also that their owners might not be that the more PC of us would call "nice"? We all know how City have manipulate FFP rules, and the Blunts are owned by a Saudi and have connections to the bin Laden's. No-one gives a fuck when it's them. They're a great little club managed by a genius, but Saudi ownership isn't what a lot of Ballers seem to dream of.

The Blunts are having an almighty row in court at the moment as to who owns the club, is it McCabe or is it the Saudi chap. In the circumstances it’s even more remarkable that Widler managed to get them up.
The fact that we are not taking care of the planet, our children will pay the consequences. With football it will be the same because we're destroying football and in the future we'll see the negative effects. Those who have power are responsible for it.

Yeboah
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2012 11:06 am

Re: Planning for next season

Postby Yeboah » Wed May 22, 2019 12:40 pm

MightyWhite wrote:We’ve always had operating losses and still brought players. Every team in the Championship has an operating loss but still brought players. Let’s see what happens hey?


We’ve never had operating losses approaching 50% of the turnover

Yeboah
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2012 11:06 am

Re: Planning for next season

Postby Yeboah » Wed May 22, 2019 12:41 pm

Tycipa wrote:
jackos wrote:
dirty leeds wrote:Norwich and Sheff U both played good football AND were promoted. We played good football and were not. Boro played crap football and didn't do so well.


Possibly missing Yebo's point though I think. The Blunts might have played some nice football, Man City play nice football, wasn't the point also that their owners might not be that the more PC of us would call "nice"? We all know how City have manipulate FFP rules, and the Blunts are owned by a Saudi and have connections to the bin Laden's. No-one gives a fuck when it's them. They're a great little club managed by a genius, but Saudi ownership isn't what a lot of Ballers seem to dream of.

The Blunts are having an almighty row in court at the moment as to who owns the club, is it McCabe or is it the Saudi chap. In the circumstances it’s even more remarkable that Widler managed to get them up.


Mental resilience

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Tycipa
Joined: Thu Jul 19, 2012 4:39 pm

Re: Planning for next season

Postby Tycipa » Wed May 22, 2019 12:44 pm

Yeboah wrote:
Mental resilience

You know that’s crap Y, you’re just posting for posting’s sake now.
The fact that we are not taking care of the planet, our children will pay the consequences. With football it will be the same because we're destroying football and in the future we'll see the negative effects. Those who have power are responsible for it.

Yeboah
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2012 11:06 am

Re: Planning for next season

Postby Yeboah » Wed May 22, 2019 12:48 pm

Tycipa wrote:
Yeboah wrote:
Mental resilience

You know that’s crap Y, you’re just posting for posting’s sake now.


Nope, I believe it be true.

Leeds as a team were mentally weaker than a number of other teams.

rss1969
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2013 3:52 pm

Re: Planning for next season

Postby rss1969 » Wed May 22, 2019 1:17 pm

Tycipa wrote:
rss1969 wrote:Looking at the list above it just keeps bouncing back to our loan signings.

Villa - Mings, Tuanzebe, Abraham (there was also the winger from Everton who was part of their mid sesaon revival cant remember his name)
Derby - Tomori, Mount, Wilson

They are THE reason that both clubs finished in top 6 ultimately with one of them to go up.

No championship club can sustain wages north of 50k a week but they can bring in quality loans that have been making the big difference over the last 4/5 seasons now.

It is imperative that we sign some quality on loan this coming season.

And one of them won’t go up and be substantially out of pocket.


All championship clubs are out of pocket when they stay down. It is a loss making division.

The point is whoever does not go up will not have to fund the wages and signing on fees for those loans. They will send them back to their parent clubs and scout the next set of kids that they can loan in to make the difference. WBA have stated that they cannot afford to turn Gayle's loan into a transfer, effectively saying that they could not afford him in the first place but they can now cut off that expense. You cannot do that when you own these players.

If you get good ones who do not cost the earth because they are not established players like Gayle then the loan market is probably the biggest difference in gaining promotion from a squad quality sense. This has been proven and Monday's match continues to prove it.

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Phil LUFC
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2008 12:26 pm
Location: Scunthorpe

Re: Planning for next season

Postby Phil LUFC » Wed May 22, 2019 1:23 pm

Yeboah wrote:
MightyWhite wrote:We’ve always had operating losses and still brought players. Every team in the Championship has an operating loss but still brought players. Let’s see what happens hey?


We’ve never had operating losses approaching 50% of the turnover

You sure about that? The losses at the end of the Ridsdale era were fucking huge, over £100m of debt acquired in at most 5 years with ~£30m turnover.

Yeboah
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2012 11:06 am

Re: Planning for next season

Postby Yeboah » Wed May 22, 2019 1:38 pm

Phil LUFC wrote:
Yeboah wrote:
MightyWhite wrote:We’ve always had operating losses and still brought players. Every team in the Championship has an operating loss but still brought players. Let’s see what happens hey?


We’ve never had operating losses approaching 50% of the turnover

You sure about that? The losses at the end of the Ridsdale era were fucking huge, over £100m of debt acquired in at most 5 years with ~£30m turnover.


Yes, sorry I meant losses without going bust. Sustainability etc.

Yeboah
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2012 11:06 am

Re: Planning for next season

Postby Yeboah » Wed May 22, 2019 2:37 pm



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