GIEFEU Pt 1 (of 3) CK

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welshwhite
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 9:15 pm

Re: GIEFEU Pt 1 (of 3) CK

Postby welshwhite » Sun May 05, 2019 1:37 pm

rss1969 wrote:
They have let Bielsa down badly.


Nail on the head.

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kennyb41
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 7:10 am

Re: GIEFEU Pt 1 (of 3) CK

Postby kennyb41 » Sun May 05, 2019 1:37 pm

You have one remaining hope......so do i and can only pray he is preparing something different for the play offs.

Just coz you're paranoid doesn't mean people aren't after you....Show me a good loser and i'll show you a fcking loser...I owe I owe it's off to work I go.

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Phil LUFC
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2008 12:26 pm
Location: Scunthorpe

Re: GIEFEU Pt 1 (of 3) CK

Postby Phil LUFC » Sun May 05, 2019 1:38 pm

MightyWhite wrote:My one remaining hope is that we can put in a performance like we did vs Villa next Saturday and still be in the shake up when the home leg comes round. I’d take a 1 goal defeat right now if offered it I reckon.

I wouldn't, we're utterly fucked if if we're behind - we can't break teams down and are vulnerable on the break. We need to be at least level by the 2nd leg.

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MightyWhite
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 11:38 am
Location: Notts

Re: GIEFEU Pt 1 (of 3) CK

Postby MightyWhite » Sun May 05, 2019 1:40 pm

Phil LUFC wrote:
MightyWhite wrote:My one remaining hope is that we can put in a performance like we did vs Villa next Saturday and still be in the shake up when the home leg comes round. I’d take a 1 goal defeat right now if offered it I reckon.

I wouldn't, we're utterly fucked if if we're behind - we can't break teams down and are vulnerable on the break. We need to be at least level by the 2nd leg.


I guess my point is I’d take a 1 goal deficit now over letting it ride and coming out of it with a 2 or 3 goal deficit - which I feel is terrifyingly possible right now.
Keep Fighting
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Mustafaster
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Re: GIEFEU Pt 1 (of 3) CK

Postby Mustafaster » Sun May 05, 2019 1:43 pm

Amazing how we find new ways to lose.
Mirrors and copulation are abominable, since they both multiply the numbers of men.

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jackos
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 7:49 am
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Re: GIEFEU Pt 1 (of 3) CK

Postby jackos » Sun May 05, 2019 1:46 pm

rss1969 wrote:Nonsense, you cannot just switch form on and off at will.

That was our best team out today vs by far the worst team in the division. We have gone to pot since the Wendies game.......it has every bearing on the play offs. Our shit form is why we are in them and not promoted.


Agree that based on our form since Christmas we have no chance in the play-offs. Our defending and Roofes form since Christmas is on par with our worst form last season. Thought we would sneak it anyway after Wednesday, but fuck me, we have been awful.

Don't agree that any team with Dallas at lb is our best team. He's not a defender and even our poor defence looks worse with him in it.

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Phil LUFC
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2008 12:26 pm
Location: Scunthorpe

Re: GIEFEU Pt 1 (of 3) CK

Postby Phil LUFC » Sun May 05, 2019 1:51 pm

Last 10 games of the season, after shitting ourselves our last 2 successful sides only took 15 points from 30:
Leeds: 13
Sheff Utd: 21
Norwich: 22

We're on our worst run if form all season.

rss1969
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2013 3:52 pm

Re: GIEFEU Pt 1 (of 3) CK

Postby rss1969 » Sun May 05, 2019 2:01 pm

That is 1 point from 12

10 goals conceded against 1 team already down, 2 with nowt to play for and 10 man Wigan.

We have imploded.

We have a chance to rescue this but it will take men and not sulking children to do it.

Bielsa needs to spank a few backsides and get an angry response out of the players because our season will be over Saturday night if we let this carry on.

rss1969
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2013 3:52 pm

Re: GIEFEU Pt 1 (of 3) CK

Postby rss1969 » Sun May 05, 2019 2:03 pm

jackos wrote:
rss1969 wrote:Nonsense, you cannot just switch form on and off at will.

That was our best team out today vs by far the worst team in the division. We have gone to pot since the Wendies game.......it has every bearing on the play offs. Our shit form is why we are in them and not promoted.


Agree that based on our form since Christmas we have no chance in the play-offs. Our defending and Roofes form since Christmas is on par with our worst form last season. Thought we would sneak it anyway after Wednesday, but fuck me, we have been awful.

Don't agree that any team with Dallas at lb is our best team. He's not a defender and even our poor defence looks worse with him in it.


Yeah but on availability it is arguably our best team.

Chieftain626
Joined: Sat Sep 09, 2017 3:56 pm
Location: Detroit, MI

Re: GIEFEU Pt 1 (of 3) CK

Postby Chieftain626 » Sun May 05, 2019 2:13 pm

kennyb41 wrote:You have one remaining hope......so do i and can only pray he is preparing something different for the play offs


Let it go kenny it’s not happening

Andymac-47
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 3:06 pm
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Re: GIEFEU Pt 1 (of 3) CK

Postby Andymac-47 » Sun May 05, 2019 2:25 pm

Phil LUFC wrote:
MightyWhite wrote:My one remaining hope is that we can put in a performance like we did vs Villa next Saturday and still be in the shake up when the home leg comes round. I’d take a 1 goal defeat right now if offered it I reckon.

I wouldn't, we're utterly fucked if if we're behind - we can't break teams down and are vulnerable on the break. We need to be at least level by the 2nd leg.

Phil I think you said it before, we have lost the fundamentals of being tight at the back first and foremost, I have copied what you have said on a few media sites.
Before Christmas we built from the back and wore teams down, until we were able to take advantage.
Andymac

Andymac-47
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Re: GIEFEU Pt 1 (of 3) CK

Postby Andymac-47 » Sun May 05, 2019 2:27 pm

How many penalties have we missed this season, has to be a record, all meant we dropped points.
Andymac

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Vampire
Joined: Sat Aug 23, 2008 4:19 am

Re: GIEFEU Pt 1 (of 3) CK

Postby Vampire » Sun May 05, 2019 2:29 pm

Come on guys, we’re not out of this. Everyone will be feeling the pressure in the play offs - everyone starts again and it’s a level playing field.
There will be no end to the problems afflicting mankind until economists become rulers, or, by some miracle, rulers become economists.

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Tycipa
Joined: Thu Jul 19, 2012 4:39 pm

Re: GIEFEU Pt 1 (of 3) CK

Postby Tycipa » Sun May 05, 2019 2:31 pm

Another season of Keith Andrews, Daniel Mann and that absolute muppet Andy Hinchcliffe....sigh.
The fact that we are not taking care of the planet, our children will pay the consequences. With football it will be the same because we're destroying football and in the future we'll see the negative effects. Those who have power are responsible for it.

BARE-NAKED-LADY
Joined: Fri Feb 15, 2008 6:29 pm
Location: LEEDS

Re: GIEFEU Pt 1 (of 3) CK

Postby BARE-NAKED-LADY » Sun May 05, 2019 2:40 pm

I went to the match. We were crap. The end.
B-N-L

BARE-NAKED-LADY
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Re: GIEFEU Pt 1 (of 3) CK

Postby BARE-NAKED-LADY » Sun May 05, 2019 2:41 pm

P.S. I hate Jack Harrison.
B-N-L

Mr Reality
Joined: Mon Apr 02, 2012 2:17 pm

Re: GIEFEU Pt 1 (of 3) CK

Postby Mr Reality » Sun May 05, 2019 2:42 pm

If you had offered 3rd place before the season I would have taken it.

Current form is worrying but given the resources there isn't much available to change it spoken before about Shackleton and Davis think both should have played more but it's not over yet.

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Phil LUFC
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2008 12:26 pm
Location: Scunthorpe

Re: GIEFEU Pt 1 (of 3) CK

Postby Phil LUFC » Sun May 05, 2019 2:59 pm

Andymac-47 wrote:
Phil LUFC wrote:
MightyWhite wrote:My one remaining hope is that we can put in a performance like we did vs Villa next Saturday and still be in the shake up when the home leg comes round. I’d take a 1 goal defeat right now if offered it I reckon.

I wouldn't, we're utterly fucked if if we're behind - we can't break teams down and are vulnerable on the break. We need to be at least level by the 2nd leg.

Phil I think you said it before, we have lost the fundamentals of being tight at the back first and foremost, I have copied what you have said on a few media sites.
Before Christmas we built from the back and wore teams down, until we were able to take advantage.

Yep. We're always playing a high risk/reward game so even when we were tight at the back we were often fortunate to have not faced so many shots but still... experimental 361 does those scatted diagram things, they make interesting reading (to ma anyway). His end of season ones shouldn't be too far away (League One and 2 already published). I've pulled all his season to date images in each category so they can be compared over time more easily (see below).

Worth noting the 50 we've conceded is 3rd best in the division while the 73 we've scored is 5th best.

EDIT: End of season charts are up now. In summary, in the last 8 games we've increased our dominance but taken a much smaller proportion of our chances AND our opponents have needed fewer chances to score. None of this is really news and all very worrying ahead of the playoffs.

Shots Per Game
We've crept up from 15 to 16 per game on average, I feel this has only gone up if anything in the last few games. Facing just under 10 per game consistently all season, the divisions best for the most part.
After 10 games
Image
After 17 games
Image
After 21 games
Image
After 30 games
Image
After 38 games
Image
Full Season
Image

Attacking Effectiveness
You can see easily how we've gone backwards by this measure. If these stats were done on blocks of games rather than season to date I suspect the reduction would be much more obvious. The drop off in the last 8 games really is alarming in context of how much its moved the needle in this view!
After 10 games
Image
After 17 games
Image
After 21 games
Image
After 30 games
Image
After 38 games
Image
Full Season
Image

Defensive Effectiveness
The amount of shots we face largely remains the same, the quantity of chances faced per goal massively dropped between December and February. It did recover for his last update but I expect the season end view to show we've hit a season low in this regard.
EDIT: I was half right, the last 8 games have caused a noticeable swing but not quite worse than it showed in the Feb update.
After 10 games
Image
After 17 games
Image
After 21 games
Image
After 30 games
Image
After 38 games
Image
Full Season
Image

Expected Goals
This has only increased as the season has progressed in at attacking sense and remained largely static at the other end. We remain very good but we're not taking as many chances as we should whilst conceding too many of the few we ship.
After 10 games
Image
After 17 games
Image
After 21 games
Image
After 30 games
Image
After 38 games
Image
Full Season
Image

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MightyWhite
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 11:38 am
Location: Notts

Re: GIEFEU Pt 1 (of 3) CK

Postby MightyWhite » Sun May 05, 2019 3:24 pm

Last 6 games going into:

2006 Championship playoffs
W1 D3 L2
Lost in final

2008 League 1 playoffs
W5 D0 L1
Lost in final

2009 League 1 playoffs
W4 D1 L1
Lost in semis

2019 Championship playoffs
W2 D1 L3
TBD

So, erm, in conclusion form probably isn’t that critical. We’ve approached playoffs in similar form and made the final, and in better form and gone out in the semis.
Keep Fighting
@lufchris - contributes to your daily bullshit quota in easy 140 charactor installments

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Phil LUFC
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2008 12:26 pm
Location: Scunthorpe

Re: GIEFEU Pt 1 (of 3) CK

Postby Phil LUFC » Sun May 05, 2019 3:44 pm

Yeah, I'm not too worried in that sense, subject to some big shifts in the season end update of the above I think I've satisfied myself we haven't really changed anything across the season, we've just had patches where we've taken our chances and others where we're allowed the opposition to take more of theirs but we consistently create more than anyone else and consistently ship fewer chances than anyone else. We're not off form as such, not in general play, against anyone.

We've a chance, so have the other 3 teams.

As I've bothered collating them, I thought I'd look at Derby's trends over the season too:
Shots: They create fewer and ship more than us, unsurprisingly, that covers all other teams. They seem to have been up and down in terms of shots faced over the season.
Attacking Effectiveness: More clinical than we are but they slipped a bit between the 30 and 38 game mark. Suspect they'll have improved against since once they got that Liverpool lad back fit.
Defensive Effectiveness: First half of the season we were secure than them, 2nd half they typically concede fewer goals per shot faced. That said, they've been consistent in this regard all season, says more about us than them vs their levels when we've played them.
Expected Goals: Through the 2nd half of the season, they're expected to lose 1.1 - 1.2. We're expected to win 1.5 - 0.9. I don't see why this would change.

I don't think I've learnt anything there other than they're probably a little fortunate to make the top 6. Brentford, Swansea and Millwall appear to have been more on top than Derby. That said, it could possibly say they have an above average keeper and are more likely than other teams to score something unexpected?


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