Devi wrote: Blackwhite wrote:
Ponte wrote:And the time between now and the deadline will be taken up by a Tory leadership circus.
Meaning we have to revoke. I'll take that.
I’ll take it too but if the lunatics take the asylum over any more, it’ll be no deal on 31-10...
Whilst May’s resignation increases the complexity and uncertainty with respect to Brexit, I think it also undoubtably increases the risk of no deal.
First, the next Conservative Leader (and PM) will undoubtably be a more hard line Brexiteer. That’s because whatever happens in the ballot of Tory MPs, the top two must run off in a further ballot of the 120,000 increasingly extremist membership. To win that vote, the two front runners will have to compete with one another on pledges to deliver a harder Brexit.
It seems inconceivable to me that anyone could win a Conservative membership ballot without some sort of support for no deal. The best anyone could get away with would be “ask Brussels for X and if they refuse then no deal” - which at least gets a negotiation going. But the EU is unlikely to offer any significant concessions meaning the new Leader would either have to claim some token concession as victory or be drawn by his membership pledges towards no deal.
Second - there is a possibility the new Leader will call a General Election to strengthen his/her position in Parliament. That may sound crazy given recent Conservative losses in local and EU elections - but a new Leader usually gets a honeymoon and a bounce in the polls. Many Conservative voters deserting to the Brexit Party will return to the fold under a Leader more committed to hard Brexit. And the Opposition Labour Party is in total disarray - Corbyn’s pro Brexit leadership of an overwhelmingly pro Remain party is now haemorrhaging votes to Remain Parties such as the Lib Dems
just as I have repeatedly said that it would.
Indeed - it is not inconceivable that Farage’s Brexit Party may even do some sort of electoral deal with a new hard line Conservative Leader. With the Labour Opposition already haemorrhaging votes to Remain parties, and the Lib Dems resurgent off the back of that (level pegging with Labour in London according to some polls), and Change UK further splitting the Remain vote, a First Past the Post electoral system could deliver a hard Brexiteer Conservative Leader a majority with not much more than 30% of the vote.
It’s all conjecture of course and too early to say how this will play out - but two things are clear to me: (1) that May’s departure increases uncertainty; and (2) that it also increases the risk of a no deal Brexit. Neither are good news for the UK economy - so no surprise to see Sterling the worst performing of the ten major currencies this month so far.
There will be no end to the problems afflicting mankind until economists become rulers, or, by some miracle, rulers become economists.