Brexshit Blunderland

Discussion on LUFC and absolutely anything... welcome to the Dark Side
User avatar
Blackwhite
Joined: Sun Feb 24, 2008 1:07 am
Location: Arse end of nowhere

Re: Brexshit Blunderland

Postby Blackwhite » Fri May 24, 2019 6:43 pm

Ta. Long week.
You know, I'm sick of following my dreams, man. I'm just going to ask where they're going and hook up with 'em later.

User avatar
Devi
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2013 6:15 pm
Location: Crystal Palarse

Re: Brexshit Blunderland

Postby Devi » Fri May 24, 2019 8:48 pm

jackos wrote:
Blackwhite wrote:
Devi wrote:And there’s no way they’d revoke.

That's our prerogative, Shirley... Or am I missing something :scratch:


“They” as in BlowJobs crowd.


Precisely.

To be fair, I don’t see any Tory revoking. It’d cause an immediate party collapse.
I like it. What is it?

User avatar
Blackwhite
Joined: Sun Feb 24, 2008 1:07 am
Location: Arse end of nowhere

Re: Brexshit Blunderland

Postby Blackwhite » Fri May 24, 2019 9:34 pm

That is increasingly looking like an inevitability, TBH. I'm not sure what can prevent it.
You know, I'm sick of following my dreams, man. I'm just going to ask where they're going and hook up with 'em later.

User avatar
Vampire
Joined: Sat Aug 23, 2008 4:19 am

Re: Brexshit Blunderland

Postby Vampire » Sat May 25, 2019 4:06 am

Devi wrote:
Blackwhite wrote:
Ponte wrote:And the time between now and the deadline will be taken up by a Tory leadership circus.

Meaning we have to revoke. I'll take that.

I’ll take it too but if the lunatics take the asylum over any more, it’ll be no deal on 31-10...


Whilst May’s resignation increases the complexity and uncertainty with respect to Brexit, I think it also undoubtably increases the risk of no deal.

First, the next Conservative Leader (and PM) will undoubtably be a more hard line Brexiteer. That’s because whatever happens in the ballot of Tory MPs, the top two must run off in a further ballot of the 120,000 increasingly extremist membership. To win that vote, the two front runners will have to compete with one another on pledges to deliver a harder Brexit.

It seems inconceivable to me that anyone could win a Conservative membership ballot without some sort of support for no deal. The best anyone could get away with would be “ask Brussels for X and if they refuse then no deal” - which at least gets a negotiation going. But the EU is unlikely to offer any significant concessions meaning the new Leader would either have to claim some token concession as victory or be drawn by his membership pledges towards no deal.

Second - there is a possibility the new Leader will call a General Election to strengthen his/her position in Parliament. That may sound crazy given recent Conservative losses in local and EU elections - but a new Leader usually gets a honeymoon and a bounce in the polls. Many Conservative voters deserting to the Brexit Party will return to the fold under a Leader more committed to hard Brexit. And the Opposition Labour Party is in total disarray - Corbyn’s pro Brexit leadership of an overwhelmingly pro Remain party is now haemorrhaging votes to Remain Parties such as the Lib Dems just as I have repeatedly said that it would.

Indeed - it is not inconceivable that Farage’s Brexit Party may even do some sort of electoral deal with a new hard line Conservative Leader. With the Labour Opposition already haemorrhaging votes to Remain parties, and the Lib Dems resurgent off the back of that (level pegging with Labour in London according to some polls), and Change UK further splitting the Remain vote, a First Past the Post electoral system could deliver a hard Brexiteer Conservative Leader a majority with not much more than 30% of the vote.

It’s all conjecture of course and too early to say how this will play out - but two things are clear to me: (1) that May’s departure increases uncertainty; and (2) that it also increases the risk of a no deal Brexit. Neither are good news for the UK economy - so no surprise to see Sterling the worst performing of the ten major currencies this month so far.
There will be no end to the problems afflicting mankind until economists become rulers, or, by some miracle, rulers become economists.

London_White
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2008 3:17 pm
Location: exiled in west sussex

Re: Brexshit Blunderland

Postby London_White » Sat May 25, 2019 8:16 am

I think we'll end up with no deal only because I can't see any new Tory leader being able to come up with one in five months. Equally I can't see there being a GE this side of the October deadline, why even give the brexit party/ukip a platform? Surely the most 'sensible' option for the new leader would be to get the country out, do your best to unite a fragmented party and take advantage of a dismal opposition. They only have to take a look back at the last shambles to be able to see that a GE with the leave vote split doesn't benefit them.

User avatar
Blackwhite
Joined: Sun Feb 24, 2008 1:07 am
Location: Arse end of nowhere

Re: Brexshit Blunderland

Postby Blackwhite » Sat May 25, 2019 8:27 am

No Deal exit is no less deadly and no better prepared for than it was, as far as I can see.

It will be interesting to see what the numbers are like when there isn't a possible deal to be had as an alternative; how many Tory MPs will want their constituents drumming on the door asking about radiotherapy or insulin shortages, or why they can't get good champers any more. (The real suffering as ever will happen amongst the less eloquent or engaged.)

I still hope that the sanity of the place is collectively intact, but somebody needs to start telling Truths, and let's face it, it won't be BoJo.
You know, I'm sick of following my dreams, man. I'm just going to ask where they're going and hook up with 'em later.

User avatar
Vampire
Joined: Sat Aug 23, 2008 4:19 am

Re: Brexshit Blunderland

Postby Vampire » Sat May 25, 2019 9:49 am

London_White wrote: Equally I can't see there being a GE this side of the October deadline, why even give the brexit party/ukip a platform?


I understand your thinking and the calculation would depend on a number of factors, but put yourself in the position of (for the sake of argument) Boris Johnson after winning the leadership.

You’ve been elected on a hard Brexit platform - but the numbers in Parliament haven’t changed. It’s a hung Parliament with your Government propped up by the DUP. The number’s aren’t there for the current withdrawal agreement. The EU won’t provide significant concessions. And the Parliament has a majority of Remainers totally opposed to no deal. You could very easily disappear in the same quagmire that consumed May.

At the same time (as often happens with a new leader) your party gets a bounce in the polls. The opposition is in disarray and haemorrhaging votes to remain parties such as the Lib Dems. The Remain vote is increasingly split across several parties - which won’t help any of them under First Past the Post. IF you could come to some kind of agreement with Farage - whose sole aim has always been merely to get the UK out of the EU - your chances of a Conservative majority based on a hard Brexit manifesto would be very good.

Of course, you’d still need Corbyn’s support under the Fixed Terms Parliament Act - but he could barely refuse having been calling for an election almost every day for the last 6 months. Which he has been cynically doing to avoid calling for a second referendum under Labour’s “compromise” policy of only calling for the latter once it is clear it cannot get the former.
There will be no end to the problems afflicting mankind until economists become rulers, or, by some miracle, rulers become economists.

User avatar
Blackwhite
Joined: Sun Feb 24, 2008 1:07 am
Location: Arse end of nowhere

Re: Brexshit Blunderland

Postby Blackwhite » Sat May 25, 2019 11:14 am

I'd forgotten the glory of this fine day with Kerry :lol: :lol: :lol:





Yeah, PM Boris. That'll fly straight.
You know, I'm sick of following my dreams, man. I'm just going to ask where they're going and hook up with 'em later.

User avatar
eric olthwaite
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 10:14 pm
Location: Over there, behind that bush

Re: Brexshit Blunderland

Postby eric olthwaite » Sat May 25, 2019 12:37 pm

I can’t see us not being fucked, I honestly don’t know what the way out is. A GE would probably deliver a few fewer seats for Tories and Labour resulting in another pointless hung parliament.

User avatar
Blackwhite
Joined: Sun Feb 24, 2008 1:07 am
Location: Arse end of nowhere

Re: Brexshit Blunderland

Postby Blackwhite » Sat May 25, 2019 1:54 pm

Interesting stats.



They can't all be dying off already, can they? Collective gammon apoplexy?
You know, I'm sick of following my dreams, man. I'm just going to ask where they're going and hook up with 'em later.

User avatar
jackos
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 7:49 am
Location: Stockholm

Re: Brexshit Blunderland

Postby jackos » Sat May 25, 2019 3:01 pm

Blackwhite wrote:Interesting stats.
They can't all be dying off already, can they? Collective gammon apoplexy?


I’d wait until tomorrow 10pm before trying to draw any conclusions, exit polls are illegal until then so anything before that will be speculation at best

User avatar
Blackwhite
Joined: Sun Feb 24, 2008 1:07 am
Location: Arse end of nowhere

Re: Brexshit Blunderland

Postby Blackwhite » Sun May 26, 2019 11:37 am

Johnson plummeting in the runner's odds, seemingly.


Wafts of fresh coffee on the morning breeze...
You know, I'm sick of following my dreams, man. I'm just going to ask where they're going and hook up with 'em later.

User avatar
jackos
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 7:49 am
Location: Stockholm

Re: Brexshit Blunderland

Postby jackos » Mon May 27, 2019 5:23 am

May gone, Tory party all in for a no deal exit, disastrous Election for Labour and still not even a slight hint that Corbyn might resign? How far do Labour have to fall before he and his supporters get it?

User avatar
Ponte
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 9:36 am
Location: Between a rock and a hard place.

Re: Brexshit Blunderland

Postby Ponte » Mon May 27, 2019 6:08 am

jackos wrote:May gone, Tory party all in for a no deal exit, disastrous Election for Labour and still not even a slight hint that Corbyn might resign? How far do Labour have to fall before he and his supporters get it?

Emily Thornberry was very straight to the point on t’box last night. Stating that Labour now had to do what they should have done before and firmly campaign for a 2nd ref with remain on the paper.
You agree not to post any abusive, obscene, vulgar, slanderous, hateful, threatening or sexually-orientated material. Doing so may lead to you being immediately and permanently banned.
Hmmm.

User avatar
jackos
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 7:49 am
Location: Stockholm

Re: Brexshit Blunderland

Postby jackos » Mon May 27, 2019 6:56 am

Ponte wrote:Emily Thornberry was very straight to the point on t’box last night. Stating that Labour now had to do what they should have done before and firmly campaign for a 2nd ref with remain on the paper.


Saw that, thought she was very clear, hadn't heard of her before last night, hope she has support in the shadow cabinet. :thumbl:

User avatar
MightyWhite
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 11:38 am
Location: Notts

Re: Brexshit Blunderland

Postby MightyWhite » Mon May 27, 2019 7:25 am

I feel like last night should hurt the case for a 2nd referendum. If the narrative is that folk would vote differently with all the facts at their disposal, well last night was the closest we’ll get to a confirmatory vote and outright remain only managed 6% more than ‘crash out in a ball of fire playing the theme music from The Dambusters’ parties. I don’t see where the mandate comes from, it looks like another 50/50 split to me
Keep Fighting
@lufchris - contributes to your daily bullshit quota in easy 140 charactor installments

User avatar
AndyPaul
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2008 9:27 am
Location: Middlesbrough

Re: Brexshit Blunderland

Postby AndyPaul » Mon May 27, 2019 7:56 am

Even if you believe in Brexit I struggle to understand how anyone could vote for a party that has that cretin Farage involved :scratch:

User avatar
Blackwhite
Joined: Sun Feb 24, 2008 1:07 am
Location: Arse end of nowhere

Re: Brexshit Blunderland

Postby Blackwhite » Mon May 27, 2019 8:31 am

MightyWhite wrote:‘crash out in a ball of fire playing the theme music from The Dambusters’ parties.


Much in favour of this particular nomenclature for the cunts.



Agree with your point, except for the fact that campaigning on the facts will change the ratios. Your suggested name change made into real, actual, rotting Bomber Command-era flesh.
You know, I'm sick of following my dreams, man. I'm just going to ask where they're going and hook up with 'em later.

User avatar
Mustafaster
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 10:02 am
Location: PC Brigade House.

Re: Brexshit Blunderland

Postby Mustafaster » Mon May 27, 2019 9:14 am

As an EU citizen living in continental Europe can I just say.
You voted Farage as the biggest single party, it looks increasingly likely that Boris will get the gig.
So...
Go on, fuck off and leave. With or without a deal as you see fit, but go.
There's 27 other countries, all with their own problems that need sorting, we have a continent to build.
So ... errr... So long, and thanks for all the fish.
Mirrors and copulation are abominable, since they both multiply the numbers of men.

User avatar
Ponte
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 9:36 am
Location: Between a rock and a hard place.

Re: Brexshit Blunderland

Postby Ponte » Mon May 27, 2019 9:28 am

Mustafaster wrote:As an EU citizen living in continental Europe can I just say.
You voted Farage as the biggest single party, it looks increasingly likely that Boris will get the gig.
So...
Go on, fuck off and leave. With or without a deal as you see fit, but go.
There's 27 other countries, all with their own problems that need sorting, we have a continent to build.
So ... errr... So long, and thanks for all the fish.

That’s bollocks, Musta. The increase in vote share for LD, Green, Change, SNP cancels out any notion that Brexit is the popular choice. It just looks that way as the remain voters were split between a few parties. And this was a vote with a 30 odd % turnout.
This shit is far from over. You ain’t rid of us yet :thumbl:
You agree not to post any abusive, obscene, vulgar, slanderous, hateful, threatening or sexually-orientated material. Doing so may lead to you being immediately and permanently banned.
Hmmm.


Return to “The Square Ball”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: rss1969, simon from cleck and 11 guests