Brexshit Blunderland

Discussion on LUFC and absolutely anything... welcome to the Dark Side
User avatar
eric olthwaite
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 10:14 pm
Location: Over there, behind that bush

Brexshit Blunderland

Postby eric olthwaite » Thu Nov 15, 2018 5:18 pm

The issue of whether anyone thinks Brexit is a good or bad idea has been done to death elsewhere, and we've all got opinions which are unlikely to change on here. The point of this thread is for us all to turn a bit Mother Shipton and consider / guess what we think will (rather than should) happen; and the permutations are too complex to work through a poll. So:

- Will May get her deal through tomorrow?
- If not, will she resign or get kicked?
- Who else will get the gig?
- Would the Tories dare call a GE before Brexit?
- Will there be a referendum?
- If so, what options will be on it?
- Will Brexit happen?
- Will A50 get extended?
- Will it be No Deal? EEA? BINO?

In best Mike Reid voice, 'Runaround, NOOOWWW!'

User avatar
Mustafaster
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 10:02 am
Location: PC Brigade House.

Re: Brexshit Blunderland

Postby Mustafaster » Thu Nov 15, 2018 5:50 pm

Good game, good game....

I'm going for the total clusterfuck.
May will be gone by the end of the month and the Tories will appoint one of their many, many utter dunces, my money is on Grayling or Raab.
The Duppers will withdraw support form the Tories and there will be an election in Jan-Feb.
No overall majority and A 50 gets extended sine die until a second referendum, which will be a 50-50 split.
Scotland has a second referendum and chooses independence.
Mirrors and copulation are abominable, since they both multiply the numbers of men.

User avatar
AndyPaul
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2008 9:27 am
Location: Middlesbrough

Re: Brexshit Blunderland

Postby AndyPaul » Thu Nov 15, 2018 6:48 pm

Mustafaster wrote:Good game, good game....

I'm going for the total clusterfuck.
May will be gone by the end of the month and the Tories will appoint one of their many, many utter dunces, my money is on Grayling or Raab.
The Duppers will withdraw support form the Tories and there will be an election in Jan-Feb.
No overall majority and A 50 gets extended sine die until a second referendum, which will be a 50-50 split.
Scotland has a second referendum and chooses independence.


And Leeds still fuck up promotion

User avatar
Quiffy
Joined: Thu May 01, 2008 6:56 pm

Re: Brexshit Blunderland

Postby Quiffy » Thu Nov 15, 2018 7:03 pm

i love a conspiracy theory, so i've just made one up...

may's brexit plan is deliberately bad, she gets a lot of shitheads to resign because of it. eventually a second referendum becomes inevitable, she develops the sympathy of the people for having taken on this mess and can choose exactly who she wants in her cabinet, permanently freezing out the likes of gove, rees-mogg and johnson.

may gets what she originally wanted, to remain, and has a far stronger mandate in the tory party and greater respect from the country as a whole.

(believe it or not, i'm starting to admire that frigid biddy a bit myself)
increasing doubt, decreasing hope, even my imaginary friend went and changed his mind.

User avatar
dirty leeds
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 12:13 pm
Location: London

Re: Brexshit Blunderland

Postby dirty leeds » Thu Nov 15, 2018 7:19 pm

Brexit is not going to happen. We'll have another vote and it will be about 65-35 to remain. And Leeds will win the play-offs, as I said earlier, on a different thread.
Mmmm, this beer is very good.

AmarinderBedi
Joined: Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:24 pm

Re: Brexshit Blunderland

Postby AmarinderBedi » Thu Nov 15, 2018 7:21 pm

Quiffy wrote:i love a conspiracy theory, so i've just made one up...

may's brexit plan is deliberately bad, she gets a lot of shitheads to resign because of it. eventually a second referendum becomes inevitable, she develops the sympathy of the people for having taken on this mess and can choose exactly who she wants in her cabinet, permanently freezing out the likes of gove, rees-mogg and johnson.

may gets what she originally wanted, to remain, and has a far stronger mandate in the tory party and greater respect from the country as a whole.

(believe it or not, i'm starting to admire that frigid biddy a bit myself)


Hear Hear!

User avatar
Quiffy
Joined: Thu May 01, 2008 6:56 pm

Re: Brexshit Blunderland

Postby Quiffy » Thu Nov 15, 2018 7:37 pm

AmarinderBedi wrote:Hear Hear!

actually she reminds me of a crow. a frigid old crow. always there adding an discomforting tone to the dawn chorus.
increasing doubt, decreasing hope, even my imaginary friend went and changed his mind.

User avatar
Vampire
Joined: Sat Aug 23, 2008 4:19 am

Re: Brexshit Blunderland

Postby Vampire » Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:49 pm

May herself defined the options as “this deal, no deal, or no Brexit (People’s vote).” I think there’s at least a fourth option - rejection of her deal followed by further negotiations (whether by her or a different PM).

May’s deal doesn’t appear to have the numbers in Parliament so that option seems highly unlikely.

No deal is possible through collective incompetence - but I still think unlikely mainly because I just don’t think the various leadership groups within both the EU and UK would let it happen.

Rejection of May’s deal followed by further negotiations is certainly possible - whether by a new Tory leader or by Corbyn after an election. Either way, the can would merely be kicked down the road and the harder choices would eventually re-emerge.

No Brexit (Peoples’ Vote) is also possible but the main impediment is Corbyn. He is a lifelong Eurosceptic whose refusal to campaign properly in the referendum is one of the reasons a close referendum was lost. Polls suggest about 80% of his Members are remainers yet he uses the sort of backroom fixes he used to criticise Blair for to deny his members meaningful votes at party conferences. I can’t see him backing a 2nd referendum unless his Party can find a way to prevail upon him, so it would need a realignment of forces in Parliament.

Which brings me to what I have always felt was your main way out of this mess. Collectively, moderate Conservatives, Labour back benchers, Lib Dems and the SNP do have the numbers on the floor of the House to carry a second referendum.

Looked at collectively in this way, most MPs are remainers. If a crisis emerges after May’s deal is voted down - that is your way out. But it would require leadership and courage from many of those MPs who would come under severe pressure - not just from their whips but also the hardcore party activists in their constituencies.
There will be no end to the problems afflicting mankind until economists become rulers, or, by some miracle, rulers become economists.

User avatar
Quiffy
Joined: Thu May 01, 2008 6:56 pm

Re: Brexshit Blunderland

Postby Quiffy » Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:21 pm

Vampire wrote:Which brings me to what I have always felt was your main way out of this mess. Collectively, moderate Conservatives, Labour back benchers, Lib Dems and the SNP do have the numbers on the floor of the House to carry a second referendum.


whatever happened to this new centrist party that, lazarus style, was going to emerge from this mess and save us?

is part of the problem social media with its endless magnification of daft stories and single issues, it makes it harder to see the bigger picture, but the other problem is that the bigger picture is far beyond the scale of 99% of people's ken.
increasing doubt, decreasing hope, even my imaginary friend went and changed his mind.

User avatar
Quiffy
Joined: Thu May 01, 2008 6:56 pm

Re: Brexshit Blunderland

Postby Quiffy » Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:12 pm

- (option 10) sam allardayce gets the job as interim pm.



nicked off fb in case anyone thought i was being humourous.
increasing doubt, decreasing hope, even my imaginary friend went and changed his mind.

User avatar
topbin
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 9:15 pm
Location: Leeds

Re: Brexshit Blunderland

Postby topbin » Fri Nov 16, 2018 8:52 am

I think (ugh) I mostly agree with Vamps.

May hasn't got the numbers to get this through. But what's increasingly clear is that there isn't a deal that will get through. And none of the main "leave" people actually want to be in charge of all this, because then they can't just keep finger pointing and actually have to try and compromise themselves to get something done. My guess is another round of negotiations, with extension to A50 for another 12 months.

I am very pro Labour's policies. But the position on the EU is untenable, so I do think any GE would just put us in the same boat we're in now, probably whichever way it lands. The only way this ship will steer is if someone actively pro-Remain is in charge of either party.

I can see us coming to a middling agreement to show willing from both sides. Something like full remaining in the customs union, freedom of movement but we go as harsh as the EU laws let us on this (and claim a win we already had power over), further sovereignty over some laws (but a token gesture from the EU as we really do have a lot of this anyway, though the Leavers will want to save face). And elongate this for a long while, until a 2nd vote when someone pro-Remain is in charge.

User avatar
topbin
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 9:15 pm
Location: Leeds

Re: Brexshit Blunderland

Postby topbin » Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:36 am

Oh, and to add, anyone feeling sorry for May is only looking at the past week. She's stopped investigations into Aaron Banks. She's been the author of the 'hostile climate' sending innocent people away from their homes and families to die. She has backed every event stripping/selling the NHS. She's decimated the police force (actually more than decimated) and then blames them for security failings. All of her policies show she is a horrible person.

User avatar
Devi
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2013 6:15 pm
Location: Crystal Palarse

Re: Brexshit Blunderland

Postby Devi » Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:36 am

In times like these, this can help.
I like it. What is it?

User avatar
Ponte
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 9:36 am
Location: Between a rock and a hard place.

Re: Brexshit Blunderland

Postby Ponte » Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:29 am

topbin wrote:Oh, and to add, anyone feeling sorry for May is only looking at the past week. She's stopped investigations into Aaron Banks. She's been the author of the 'hostile climate' sending innocent people away from their homes and families to die. She has backed every event stripping/selling the NHS. She's decimated the police force (actually more than decimated) and then blames them for security failings. All of her policies show she is a horrible person.

:salute:
You agree not to post any abusive, obscene, vulgar, slanderous, hateful, threatening or sexually-orientated material. Doing so may lead to you being immediately and permanently banned.
Hmmm.

User avatar
Blackwhite
Joined: Sun Feb 24, 2008 1:07 am
Location: Arse end of nowhere

Re: Brexshit Blunderland

Postby Blackwhite » Fri Nov 16, 2018 12:35 pm

Ponte wrote:
topbin wrote:Oh, and to add, anyone feeling sorry for May is only looking at the past week. She's stopped investigations into Aaron Banks. She's been the author of the 'hostile climate' sending innocent people away from their homes and families to die. She has backed every event stripping/selling the NHS. She's decimated the police force (actually more than decimated) and then blames them for security failings. All of her policies show she is a horrible person.

:salute:

Yep. Fuck her and the dead horse she tried to ride in on.
You know, I'm sick of following my dreams, man. I'm just going to ask where they're going and hook up with 'em later.

Andymac-47
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 3:06 pm
Location: Belfast

Re: Brexshit Blunderland

Postby Andymac-47 » Fri Nov 16, 2018 4:25 pm

Sticking my neck right out here (understatement of the year), but I think this deal is going to go through.
Andymac

User avatar
Devi
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2013 6:15 pm
Location: Crystal Palarse

Re: Brexshit Blunderland

Postby Devi » Fri Nov 16, 2018 5:17 pm

Andymac-47 wrote:Sticking my neck right out here (understatement of the year), but I think this deal is going to go through.


It will, eventually, but not at first pass. The EU will pass it on Nov 25, then parliament will turn it down in mid Dec. Then sometime before Mar 29th, it'll go through.

Thing is, in the absence of any challenge, she can - and will - keep on pushing, till folk get scared its this or nothing (given the 2nd ref won't happen). She's also going to win a no confidence vote - if indeed that ever happens - and point blank wont call a GE, no matter what. (Though I think she has to before the mooted end of the transition period itself, doesnt she?)

About the only good thing I can see here is the possible demise of the ERG, who appear to have badly overplayed their hand.
I like it. What is it?

User avatar
dirty leeds
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 12:13 pm
Location: London

Re: Brexshit Blunderland

Postby dirty leeds » Fri Nov 16, 2018 6:54 pm

48 Tory tosspots will say you're wrong...

Andymac-47
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 3:06 pm
Location: Belfast

Re: Brexshit Blunderland

Postby Andymac-47 » Fri Nov 16, 2018 7:52 pm

dirty leeds wrote:48 Tory tosspots will say you're wrong...


21 at the last count, and Boris is nowhere to be seen or heard.
Andymac

Andymac-47
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 3:06 pm
Location: Belfast

Re: Brexshit Blunderland

Postby Andymac-47 » Fri Nov 16, 2018 7:56 pm

topbin wrote:Oh, and to add, anyone feeling sorry for May is only looking at the past week. She's stopped investigations into Aaron Banks. She's been the author of the 'hostile climate' sending innocent people away from their homes and families to die. She has backed every event stripping/selling the NHS. She's decimated the police force (actually more than decimated) and then blames them for security failings. All of her policies show she is a horrible person.


Agreed. But listening to Mrs Andy (like most people is not so clued up politically) wishes all those bad men who are ganging up on the poor frail women would fuck the fuck off and leave her alone.
Andymac


Return to “The Square Ball”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Blackwhite, Eddies Boots, throbbinrobin and 15 guests