The state of UK politics

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Vampire
Joined: Sat Aug 23, 2008 4:19 am

Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Vampire » Thu Sep 19, 2019 9:48 pm

eric olthwaite wrote:Vamps 'Labour should commit to Remain' argument is utter bollocks (once again).

Suppose Labour did just that and there was a GE. The only possible result would be a massive Tory majority, possibly with some BXP seats, as Leavers abandon Lab / Lib Dems and the Remain vote splits. Hey presto, insta No Deal and further privatisation of everything.


You said that before the Local and Euro elections, and I pointed out the polling evidence to the contrary:

Vampire wrote:
eric olthwaite wrote:There's no question he'd lose seats with a Remain policy and I doubt he'd gain any


That is flatly contradicted by the polling evidence.


Since then, that polling evidence has been confirmed by real results in the Local and European elections. Labour suffered the worst results for the official Opposition in living memory - and against a shambolic mid term Government.

So, you’re flying in the face of overwhelming polling evidence. And the electoral logic really is quite simple. Labour voters are overwhelmingly Remain. Even in so called “Labour Leave” seats the majority of Labour voters voted Remain (Leave got over the line with Conservative/UKIP votes). So, it’s just common sense that Labour has far more to lose by not backing Remain.

You say the Remain vote is split. It is split precisely because Labour keeps adopting pro Brexit fudges to satisfy its Eurosceptic Leader. Before the Local and Euro elections the Lib Dems were a totally discredited party polling mid single digits. Your messiah Corbyn has raised them from the dead like Lazarus. Persisting with a “jobs first” Brexit won’t win back those lost voters - if anything the exodus will increase. Nor will it appeal to Leave voters with a far clearer alternative to vote for. It is another electoral disaster waiting to happen.

But leaving aside the common sense electoral logic and polling evidence, Labour would also be seen as more authentic as a pro Remain Party campaigning for what it believes in - rather than trying to spin a convoluted fudge for (wrongly) perceived electoral gain. And its activists would be more motivated to go out knocking on doors and delivering leaflets.

I can understand Corbyn himself not wanting a pro Remain position because he is a lifelong Eurosceptic. But for Remainers like you, Oaf, to blindly follow your hero over a cliff in the face of overwhelming evidence simply beggars belief.

Fortunately, not all Labour Remainers are quite so dumb judging by the number of resolutions for a pro Remain position pouring in for next week’s conference. Sadly, I fear Corbyn will head this off with another backroom fix with the Union Leaders who control 50% of the votes. But fair play to those Labour Remainers for trying - they get it even if you don’t - and I wish them well for the conference. Anyone on here going?
There will be no end to the problems afflicting mankind until economists become rulers, or, by some miracle, rulers become economists.

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jackos
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Re: The state of UK politics

Postby jackos » Fri Sep 20, 2019 6:00 am

I think you understate the Corbyn effect a tad Vamps, he's your typical marmite figure, it doesn't matter what he does or says, a lot of people either don't trust him, or don't like his politics. Its not just about Brexit.

I think a new referendum is the best idea, I just don't think it should be preceded by an election. Get no deal off the table, stop this ridiculous discussion about the EU trying to trap the UK into something it does not want, agree a deal/transition period, and hold a referendum with all the facts on the table.

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eric olthwaite
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Re: The state of UK politics

Postby eric olthwaite » Fri Sep 20, 2019 6:50 am

jackos wrote:I think a new referendum is the best idea, I just don't think it should be preceded by an election. Get no deal off the table, stop this ridiculous discussion about the EU trying to trap the UK into something it does not want, agree a deal/transition period, and hold a referendum with all the facts on the table.


The trouble is that this is all wishful thinking at the ‘I wish unicorns farted rainbows’ level.

If the government doesn’t want a referendum (it doesn’t) there can’t be a referendum without an election.

How do you plan to ‘stop this ridiculous discussion’ and put ‘facts on the table’? The Tories, Farage and the Daily Express won’t stop existing, just because we’d prefer them to.

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Vampire
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Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Vampire » Fri Sep 20, 2019 6:51 am

jackos wrote:I think you understate the Corbyn effect a tad Vamps, he's your typical marmite figure, it doesn't matter what he does or says, a lot of people either don't trust him, or don't like his politics. Its not just about Brexit.


I don’t under-estimate that Jackos - but the polling evidence I provided to Oaf (see my previous post for the link) was quite clear that, regardless who is Leader, Labour would do far better with a pro Remain policy compared with a pro Brexit or fudged policy.

Yes - they’d do better still without Corbyn but I was responding to Oaf’s theory that a pro Remain policy somehow damages Labour.

jackos wrote:I think a new referendum is the best idea, I just don't think it should be preceded by an election.


Agree it is in the interest of both Remain and Labour that a referendum is held before a GE. Though there’s a question about which options you put on the ballot paper now May’s deal is dead.


BTW Jackos - thought you’d been told to “fuck off” and been banished from this thread by our resident red fascists? You could end up in the gulag come the revolution if you don’t respect their preference for echo chambers!
:mrgreen:
There will be no end to the problems afflicting mankind until economists become rulers, or, by some miracle, rulers become economists.

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kennyb41
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Re: The state of UK politics

Postby kennyb41 » Fri Sep 20, 2019 8:23 am

Labour need to find a way to oust Corbyn with a committed remainer, by hook or by crook.
Just coz you're paranoid doesn't mean people aren't after you....Show me a good loser and i'll show you a fcking loser...I owe I owe it's off to work I go.

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jackos
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Re: The state of UK politics

Postby jackos » Fri Sep 20, 2019 8:43 am

eric olthwaite wrote:The trouble is that this is all wishful thinking at the ‘I wish unicorns farted rainbows’ level.

If the government doesn’t want a referendum (it doesn’t) there can’t be a referendum without an election.

How do you plan to ‘stop this ridiculous discussion’ and put ‘facts on the table’? The Tories, Farage and the Daily Express won’t stop existing, just because we’d prefer them to.



As we disagreed about on the other thread. Johnson & Cummings surrendered their majority in parliament, I think a coalition to prevent a no deal should step in, replace the current incompetents, and take control of the agenda. We do not need an election.

It'd be nice if you could comment on a post without stuff like the unicorns statement, we don't have to agree, there's no need to try poke ridicule everything I write.

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jackos
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Re: The state of UK politics

Postby jackos » Fri Sep 20, 2019 8:50 am

Vampire wrote:BTW Jackos - thought you’d been told to “fuck off” and been banished from this thread by our resident red fascists? You could end up in the gulag come the revolution if you don’t respect their preference for echo chambers!
:mrgreen:


I'm an active trade unionist and representative in a European Works Council, so it makes a change for me to be on the other side. It's usually management, capital and shareholder representatives telling me to shut the fuck up and fuck off, (they are usually more eloquent though). :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

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Devi
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Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Devi » Fri Sep 20, 2019 8:58 am

jackos wrote:I think a coalition to prevent a no deal should step in, replace the current incompetents, and take control of the agenda.


I agree, that agenda being:

- parliament rules out 'no deal'. (It has already, but No Deal remains the default exit on 31-10 or 31-1. It should be permanently ruled out, and the fucktards that support no deal be merrily ignored, unless they can explicitly quantify the upsides to that outcome. "Because you lost' is not, for the avoidance of doubt, an upside.
- reach 'deal' with EU that government (not parliament) accepts. (This may well be Treeza's deal, tbf... within the current government (ie tories) there's likely already a majority for it. That may be the case too in a Kinnock/Flint/Stewart/Clarke/etc 'unity' govt.
- government offers that deal, vs remain in a referendum, with a 66% of the vote (or better still 50% + 1 of the electorate) being required to mandate the result.
- in the event of no mandate, then revoke A50 - in an explicitly temporary way - call a GE, and see who gets a new mandate on whatever party manifesto promise they make (incl the LDs 'permanent revocation').
- new government either re-triggers A50 and does 'new' deal (with 'remain' now off the table, much as that'd personally piss me off), or we stay in and get on with fixing the fuck up that has been the last three (10? 20?) years.

jackos wrote:We do not need an election.


But how does a coalition 'step in' without one?

E2A - should / could any new referendum be run on a PR/AV basis? Might that help break a deadlock? #justathought
I like it. What is it?

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kennyb41
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Re: The state of UK politics

Postby kennyb41 » Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:37 am

jackos wrote:
eric olthwaite wrote:The trouble is that this is all wishful thinking at the ‘I wish unicorns farted rainbows’ level.

If the government doesn’t want a referendum (it doesn’t) there can’t be a referendum without an election.

How do you plan to ‘stop this ridiculous discussion’ and put ‘facts on the table’? The Tories, Farage and the Daily Express won’t stop existing, just because we’d prefer them to.



As we disagreed about on the other thread. Johnson & Cummings surrendered their majority in parliament, I think a coalition to prevent a no deal should step in, replace the current incompetents, and take control of the agenda. We do not need an election.

It'd be nice if you could comment on a post without stuff like the unicorns statement, we don't have to agree, there's no need to try poke ridicule everything I write.


The bigots of this world can't help it Jacko, it's just their persona and jeez aren't they mightily higher than the rest, but usually henpecked boring fckers.

Must dash.
Just coz you're paranoid doesn't mean people aren't after you....Show me a good loser and i'll show you a fcking loser...I owe I owe it's off to work I go.

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eric olthwaite
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Re: The state of UK politics

Postby eric olthwaite » Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:51 am

jackos wrote:It'd be nice if you could comment on a post without stuff like the unicorns statement, we don't have to agree, there's no need to try poke ridicule everything I write.


OK, fair enough. Consider my unicorns withdrawn.

jackos wrote: I think a coalition to prevent a no deal should step in, replace the current incompetents, and take control of the agenda. We do not need an election.


Let's try and game this.

1. Relevant parties agree to a VONC. It passes.
2. A majority of the House needs to agree to support an alternative government.
3. Parliamentary protocol is that the Leader of the Opposition has the first attempt to form an alternative government. It is inconceivable that any other Labour figure could be PM without being leader of the party, and the leadership of the party is not a matter for Parliament.

How about the following:
4. Corbyn agrees to lead a fixed short term coalition government (six months?). In that short period of time there will be an abandonment of Corbyn's 'jobs first Brexit' idiocy and a sensible discussion with the EU which can only encompass the range between May's WA and EEA/EFTA. Sensible, pragmatic, compromise boundaries.
5. Swinson agrees to STFU and get back in her lane, for the agreed short period. Who could reasonably object to Corbyn as leader in a coalition with a fixed short term and limited remit?
6. Govt immediately releases unredacted all research papers compiled by the civil service to date describing the impact of various forms of Brexit.
7. Deal is agreed with EU and put to a referendum, with the caveat that if it is not accepted parliament must immediately vote between a no deal departure or revoke.
8. Following the outcome of the referendum further key dates (related to EU departure if applicable) are fixed in stone and a GE date is set.

Get me; I can fix everything.

Would the various parties accept the above? Nope.

Eddies Boots
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Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Eddies Boots » Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:57 am

wasn't Corbyn's initial proposal for an interim govt until the next GE - and everyone shuddered
its not just that its fixed-term - i would think it has to be that he cannot set any other piece of legislation beyond the scope of brexit/referendum/GE

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eric olthwaite
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Re: The state of UK politics

Postby eric olthwaite » Fri Sep 20, 2019 10:03 am

Eddies Boots wrote: i would think it has to be that he cannot set any other piece of legislation beyond the scope of brexit/referendum/GE


I don't really see why this would be an issue. Legislative time would naturally limit other things that could happen. There's stuff like the Domestic Violence Bill which has cross party support and hasn't yet happened because of time; that could go through.

If Corbyn wanted to, for example, abandon Universal Credit he could only do so with the majority support of parliament.

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Vampire
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Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Vampire » Fri Sep 20, 2019 10:42 am

eric olthwaite wrote:4. Corbyn agrees to lead a fixed short term coalition government (six months?). In that short period of time there will be an abandonment of Corbyn's 'jobs first Brexit' idiocy and a sensible discussion with the EU which can only encompass the range between May's WA and EEA/EFTA. Sensible, pragmatic, compromise boundaries.


He doesn’t have the numbers in Parliament. The Lib Dems (quite rightly) don’t trust him on Brexit. Nor do the old Change UK MPs who also find him toxic because of his handling of anti Semitism (which some of them suffered personally). Moderate Conservatives would be committing suicide with their local parties and electorates if they put someone like him in Downing Street. I’m not even sure all his own MPs would vote for him.

And quite apart from his politics including Euroscepticism, hardly anyone in the House probably thinks him up to it. And given how unpopular he is with the public, what a gift for the Johnson/Cummins “people v Parliament” spin if he heads a Parliamentary coalition.

eric olthwaite wrote:Parliamentary protocol is that the Leader of the Opposition has the first attempt to form an alternative government. It is inconceivable that any other Labour figure could be PM without being leader of the party, and the leadership of the party is not a matter for Parliament.


It’s already been explained to you that history and precedent for Governments of national unity is that they are very rarely led by the Leader of the Opposition. You’re not even right about “first attempt” after a Government falls. After Heath lost his majority in 1974 he had “first attempt” to form a coalition with the Liberals - before Wilson formed Government.

Corbyn is too divisive, toxic, untrusted on Brexit and incompetent to ever get anywhere near the numbers in the current House - so there’s no point him even putting himself forward.

Swinson’s suggestion of Clarke or Harmen seems eminently sensible. They’ve both said they’ll do it. The whole rebel alliance will back them apart from Corbyn and his acolytes. It’s the obvious way forward. If Corbyn wanted to put the country first and stop Brexit he’d acquiesce - it may even help his image with the public a little. Why won’t he?
There will be no end to the problems afflicting mankind until economists become rulers, or, by some miracle, rulers become economists.

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dirty leeds
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Re: The state of UK politics

Postby dirty leeds » Fri Sep 20, 2019 10:51 am

Vampire wrote:Swinson’s suggestion of Clarke or Harmen seems eminently sensible. They’ve both said they’ll do it. The whole rebel alliance will back them apart from Corbyn and his acolytes. It’s the obvious way forward. If Corbyn wanted to put the country first and stop Brexit he’d acquiesce - it may even help his image with the public a little. Why won’t he?


This is pretty much what I've been thinking since the Ken Clarke thing first came up. I don't think Corbyn will ever be up to it, but it could have made him look more statesmanlike. For a bit.

Harman, not Harmen, by the way.

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the flying pig
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Re: The state of UK politics

Postby the flying pig » Fri Sep 20, 2019 11:07 am

more or less uncharted waters but i always thought that KC would be a good choice for a temporary gig like this, i think a number of factors point towards him, e.g. his being such a long standing MP for the party which got the most votes in 2017, having voted for may's deal more than once despite being a staunch europhile, having come up with his own alternative suggestion which was reasonably popular in those daft indicative votes, definitley not wanting the permanent gig.

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eric olthwaite
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Re: The state of UK politics

Postby eric olthwaite » Fri Sep 20, 2019 11:11 am

*uncharted, FFS. As in 'not previously having been mapped'.

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the flying pig
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 8:24 am

Re: The state of UK politics

Postby the flying pig » Fri Sep 20, 2019 11:19 am

ha, fair enough. this morning i listened to the angus kinnear thing on 'talking shutt', i found myself getting similalry angry on an equally pedantic grammatical point.

Yeboah
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Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Yeboah » Fri Sep 20, 2019 12:10 pm

@brett

You've previously stated that a chunk of labour voters voted leave (5m?).

If Labour came out for remain where would these voters go and how would that help them in GE terms.

Your opinion of course and apologies if I've not remembered the number correctly

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Blackwhite
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Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Blackwhite » Fri Sep 20, 2019 5:59 pm

:mrgreen:

Old, but good.
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Quiffy
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Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Quiffy » Fri Sep 20, 2019 6:14 pm

Ken Clarke is a fair shout but i'm not sure his conservative history will make him palatable for those of a red persuasion. a more neutral candidate in this respect is Caroline Lucas. It's hard to have much of a grievance with her.
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