The state of UK politics

Discussion on LUFC and absolutely anything... welcome to the Dark Side
Yeboah
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2012 11:06 am

Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Yeboah » Fri May 03, 2019 3:24 pm

Small beer you say?



User avatar
Vampire
Joined: Sat Aug 23, 2008 4:19 am

Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Vampire » Fri May 03, 2019 3:31 pm

Yeboah wrote:
Vampire wrote:
Yeboah wrote:@vampire

So if in the referendum, labour stronghold constituencies voted Leave in the main, the polls suggest they’ve changed their mind?

Don’t think that’s true when you look at what’s happened in

Sunderland
Middlesbrough
Bolsover

Plus where the brexit party is in the polls country wide for the EU elections.


Plus in Coopers constituency, Pontefract, massive leave and Labour fortress they came within 40 and 80 votes of losing councillors to independents. Unheard of territory.

In a GE I think most people would swing back behind traditional alliances, no one sensible wants to risk a Corbyn govt.


The polling data is pretty clear that Labour will win far more votes and seats supporting Remain than supporting Brexit. It’s hardly rocket science to deduce that from polls showing over 70% of Labour voters and over 80% of members being Remainers. That doesn’t mean they may not lose some seats - but net gains will clearly be higher supporting Remain according to the polling evidence.

A couple of things you need to be careful of in your analysis:

First, just because a majority of voters in some Northern Labour seats voted Leave doesn’t mean a majority of Labour voters in those seats voted leave. Leave got over the line with Tory and UKIP votes. Even in those leave voting seats Labour may alienate more of its own voters with a pro Brexit platform than pro Remain. And it’s not going to win Tory votes by out Brexiting the Tories, UKIP, or Farage.

Second, just because Labour loses a Leave Council doesn’t mean that’s solely down to voters thinking it’s pro Remain (which btw it isn’t according to official policy). As previously noted people vote for a range of different reasons - some of them may simply have been voting out a poorly run Council. There’s insufficient data on Council voting at this early stage to make a call - but there’s more than enough data to prove beyond doubt that the overwhelming majority of Labour voters are Remain and the Party therefore stands to lose more than it gains by being (as it currently is) pro Brexit.


Love to see where the polling was done.... in real actual results, they appear to be nonsense. On your other points I disagree completely so we will need to agree to differ.

7/10 labour held constituencies voted leave in 2016 ref.

https://labourheartlands.com/labour-con ... ve-the-eu/

This isn’t just a selected few northern places.

I think in reality there are 2 labour parties who are trying to do-exist under 1 banner.

Traditional northern core vote
London

The traditional labour vote sides with Farage on EU in the main, hence his current 10 point poll lead. And the comments by Sunderland leader, Pontefract councillor and result in Boro mayoral race.

Labour voters outside of London, overwhelming back brexit based an actual election results.

If the Tory govt. continues on a sudo remain course despite everything then swinging behind a proper brexit for labour (which is what the leader wants) would bring them many, many more votes.

Membership don’t want it, but the members can’t get them into power. They are a hinderance.


Happy to agree to differ but I have posted clear polling evidence that shows over 70% of Labour voters and over 80% of members are pro Remain - so it’s not rocket science to deduce their net gain would be higher pro Remain than pro Brexit. The polling was nationwide.

As I’ve already said, just because some Labour constituencies voted leave, doesn’t mean a majority of Labour voters in those constituencies voted leave.

To some extent you are making a similar mistake as Nigel Farage whose claim about 5 million labour voters has been fact checked and found to be wrong.

Firstly, there is no precise figure to show how the Brexit vote split in 2017.

We know that 35 per cent of Labour voters from 2015 voted Leave in 2016, according to YouGov.

But as the 2017 ballot paper did not ask people about their views on Brexit and we know polling varied wildly throughout that period, it is hard to say exactly what the number would be now.

Various studies have attempted to work it out.

A survey by the British Election Study estimated 30 per cent of Labour voters in 2017 also voted leave in the referendum – which is around four million people.

But because the survey has a margin of error – four percentage points – it means the exact figure could be 26 per cent (3.3 million voters) or 34 per cent (4.4 million voters).

Other estimates show the number of Labour Leave voters as around 3.1 million people (Ipsos-Mori) or 3.2 million people (Lord Ashcroft polling).

YouGov also did some more research and estimated that 29 per cent of voters who chose Labour in 2017 also voted Leave in 2016 – making the figure around 3.5 million Labour-Leavers.

Whatever the answer, it seems unlikely that Farage’s five million figure is correct.

The high-end of the range is 4.4 million and most estimates show between three and four million voters.

The “betrayal” narrative has another problem – if you assume that Labour should follow approximately 30 per cent of its voters who picked Leave, what about the 70 per cent who didn’t?

As second referendum campaigner Femi Oluwole explained (using YouGov’s research):

And as this three-way polling for a deal, no deal and Remain (from YouGov again) shows, Labour supporters back Remain by a huge margin.

It would be impossible for Labour (or any major party bar UKIP) to completely satisfy their voters on Brexit because the referendum did not split down traditional party lines.

It's unclear how Farage came up with his five million figure but based on the evidence that is available, it looks like he's out by a few million votes.
There will be no end to the problems afflicting mankind until economists become rulers, or, by some miracle, rulers become economists.

User avatar
Vampire
Joined: Sat Aug 23, 2008 4:19 am

Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Vampire » Fri May 03, 2019 3:32 pm

Yeboah wrote:Small beer you say?




That is pretty impressive!
:lol:

But it is one constituency - love to know how it was organised. Nationwide?
There will be no end to the problems afflicting mankind until economists become rulers, or, by some miracle, rulers become economists.

User avatar
Devi
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2013 6:15 pm
Location: Crystal Palarse

Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Devi » Fri May 03, 2019 3:37 pm

Yeboah wrote:Labour voters outside of London, overwhelming back brexit based an actual election results.

If the Tory govt. continues on a sudo remain course despite everything then swinging behind a proper brexit for labour (which is what the leader wants) would bring them many, many more votes.

Membership don’t want it, but the members can’t get them into power. They are a hinderance.


If Labour voters 'outside London' want the same thing the 'Leader' wants, how come Labour has lost 100+ councillors... outside London? Or are you applying Treeza's logic that a massive swing to Pro-Remain parties across the piece indicates a nationwide desire to leave?

The Brexit party will, Im sure, do well on 23 May. But I'd still not imagine there'll be a measurable, electoral majority for Brexit itself. (I'd crunch the numbers but cant be arsed. Im with Tony.)
I like it. What is it?

User avatar
Devi
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2013 6:15 pm
Location: Crystal Palarse

Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Devi » Fri May 03, 2019 3:40 pm

Also this, from Auntie:

But if you take a close look at the figures in Sunderland, the complexity of Labour's political problems are revealed.
Its vote fell by nearly 17 points there - while UKIP's went up by 4.5.
The pro-Remain Lib Dems saw their vote rise by nearly 10 points and the Greens by 8.5.
Indeed, the combined vote of the Lib Dems and Greens was 21.4%, not far off UKIP's 23.9%.
The swing from Labour to the Lib Dems was about 13% and to the Greens 10%.
Those in Labour's ranks who wanted a stronger commitment to another referendum on any Brexit deal are arguing now that the party is losing support in some Leave areas by failing to appeal enough to those who voted Remain.
Defections to the Lib Dems and the Greens suppressed the Labour vote, and further flatters UKIP's performance.
I like it. What is it?

Yeboah
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2012 11:06 am

Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Yeboah » Fri May 03, 2019 3:41 pm

Devi wrote:
Yeboah wrote:Labour voters outside of London, overwhelming back brexit based an actual election results.

If the Tory govt. continues on a sudo remain course despite everything then swinging behind a proper brexit for labour (which is what the leader wants) would bring them many, many more votes.

Membership don’t want it, but the members can’t get them into power. They are a hinderance.


If Labour voters 'outside London' want the same thing the 'Leader' wants, how come Labour has lost 100+ councillors... outside London? Or are you applying Treeza's logic that a massive swing to Pro-Remain parties across the piece indicates a nationwide desire to leave?

The Brexit party will, Im sure, do well on 23 May. But I'd still not imagine there'll be a measurable, electoral majority for Brexit itself. (I'd crunch the numbers but cant be arsed. Im with Tony.)


Massive swing....from fuck all to a bit more than fuck all. :lol:

People didn’t vote Labour or Tory because they don’t trust either of them, simple concept. Voted for anyone but.

In my local election, the independent got more than 60% of the vote!

Yeboah
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2012 11:06 am

Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Yeboah » Fri May 03, 2019 3:42 pm

Vampire wrote:
Yeboah wrote:Small beer you say?




That is pretty impressive!
:lol:

But it is one constituency - love to know how it was organised. Nationwide?




Great Yarmouth ended up with 1000 spoilt papers.

User avatar
Devi
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2013 6:15 pm
Location: Crystal Palarse

Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Devi » Fri May 03, 2019 3:43 pm

Between them, the Tories and Labour have lost over 1000 councillors.
Between them, Lib Dems and Greens have gained just shy of 700 (at the latest numbers.

Thats a massive swing, whichever way you cut it.
I like it. What is it?

User avatar
Vampire
Joined: Sat Aug 23, 2008 4:19 am

Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Vampire » Fri May 03, 2019 3:55 pm

Devi wrote: Im with Tony.)


Does that mean you’re resigning too?
There will be no end to the problems afflicting mankind until economists become rulers, or, by some miracle, rulers become economists.

User avatar
eric olthwaite
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 10:14 pm
Location: Over there, behind that bush

Re: The state of UK politics

Postby eric olthwaite » Fri May 03, 2019 3:57 pm

Devi wrote:Also this, from Auntie:

But if you take a close look at the figures in Sunderland, the complexity of Labour's political problems are revealed.
Its vote fell by nearly 17 points there - while UKIP's went up by 4.5.
The pro-Remain Lib Dems saw their vote rise by nearly 10 points and the Greens by 8.5.
Indeed, the combined vote of the Lib Dems and Greens was 21.4%, not far off UKIP's 23.9%.
The swing from Labour to the Lib Dems was about 13% and to the Greens 10%.
Those in Labour's ranks who wanted a stronger commitment to another referendum on any Brexit deal are arguing now that the party is losing support in some Leave areas by failing to appeal enough to those who voted Remain.
Defections to the Lib Dems and the Greens suppressed the Labour vote, and further flatters UKIP's performance.


I understand Sunderland's a bit misleading. Apparently there were issues around this cunt and how the local party handled the fall out. The Beeb not giving all the information? Shocked, I am.

Yeboah
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2012 11:06 am

Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Yeboah » Fri May 03, 2019 4:06 pm

eric olthwaite wrote:
Devi wrote:Also this, from Auntie:

But if you take a close look at the figures in Sunderland, the complexity of Labour's political problems are revealed.
Its vote fell by nearly 17 points there - while UKIP's went up by 4.5.
The pro-Remain Lib Dems saw their vote rise by nearly 10 points and the Greens by 8.5.
Indeed, the combined vote of the Lib Dems and Greens was 21.4%, not far off UKIP's 23.9%.
The swing from Labour to the Lib Dems was about 13% and to the Greens 10%.
Those in Labour's ranks who wanted a stronger commitment to another referendum on any Brexit deal are arguing now that the party is losing support in some Leave areas by failing to appeal enough to those who voted Remain.
Defections to the Lib Dems and the Greens suppressed the Labour vote, and further flatters UKIP's performance.


I understand Sunderland's a bit misleading. Apparently there were issues around this cunt and how the local party handled the fall out. The Beeb not giving all the information? Shocked, I am.


Closer to home...?

And if we are talking cunts.....


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-48148755

Too prize...

Yeboah
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2012 11:06 am

Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Yeboah » Fri May 03, 2019 4:10 pm

Devi wrote:Between them, the Tories and Labour have lost over 1000 councillors.
Between them, Lib Dems and Greens have gained just shy of 700 (at the latest numbers.

Thats a massive swing, whichever way you cut it.


Do you honestly believe that it would be replicated at a GE?

Or even in the euros?

Lots of people feel politically homeless and in an election perceived as ‘not that important’ they protest vote.

Interesting to note that both Tory and Lab vote would be 28% if a GE.

Behind the brexit party in the polls.

User avatar
Devi
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2013 6:15 pm
Location: Crystal Palarse

Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Devi » Fri May 03, 2019 4:12 pm

Vampire wrote:
Devi wrote: Im with Tony.)


Does that mean you’re resigning too?


Resigned.

33 years voting, 22 years membership, 5 or 6 of which 'actively activist'...

I'm done.
I like it. What is it?

User avatar
Devi
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2013 6:15 pm
Location: Crystal Palarse

Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Devi » Fri May 03, 2019 4:18 pm

Yeboah wrote:
Devi wrote:Between them, the Tories and Labour have lost over 1000 councillors.
Between them, Lib Dems and Greens have gained just shy of 700 (at the latest numbers.

Thats a massive swing, whichever way you cut it.


Do you honestly believe that it would be replicated at a GE?

Or even in the euros?

Lots of people feel politically homeless and in an election perceived as ‘not that important’ they protest vote.

Interesting to note that both Tory and Lab vote would be 28% if a GE.

Behind the brexit party in the polls.


Frankly, I wouldnt be at all surprised if the political landscape isn't massively redrawn at the next GE, so yes: I do see huge losses for both the Big 2, and (probably) a few wins for Farage. It might even be interesting to see him at Westminster (if he'd deign to show up, of course), and just how badly he'd fare in the British parliamentary system.

I would, however, be dumbstruck if he/his won a GE.

Are you suggesting that people will see May 23rd as 'not that important'? You really think people will come back to Labour at a 2021 (or whenever) GE?
I like it. What is it?

User avatar
Vampire
Joined: Sat Aug 23, 2008 4:19 am

Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Vampire » Fri May 03, 2019 4:23 pm

Devi wrote:
Vampire wrote:
Devi wrote: Im with Tony.)


Does that mean you’re resigning too?


Resigned.

33 years voting, 22 years membership, 5 or 6 of which 'actively activist'...

I'm done.


I hope you don’t mean that.

It’s a dilemma - you think staying in his hopeless - but you leave you make them stronger. Labour may be an 80% Remain Party - but with all the resignations that could soon be 60% - much easier for the Corbynite Lexiteers.

TBF to Corbyn one of the things I do respect him for is he stayed in during the Kinnock and Blair years. And TBF to Blair I read somewhere he personally intervened to stop Corbyn being deselected during that period. (Not sure the hard left will be similarly charitable).

I’d just urge you - hang in there - you’ll achieve more inside than outside.

One thing I don’t understand is why this massive pro Remain majority can’t call a special conference and mandate the leadership on a 2nd referendum. Instead they keep accepting “compromise” positions that commit Corbyn to nothing - “the option” for a second referendum if “snow falls over London in July” type of thing. Just don’t get it.
There will be no end to the problems afflicting mankind until economists become rulers, or, by some miracle, rulers become economists.

Poshwhite
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2014 6:21 pm

Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Poshwhite » Fri May 03, 2019 4:37 pm

Sorry, those figures are bollocks! Or at least presented out of context.



Malton & Norton isn't a council. It is two wards in Ryedale District Council. Together they totalled 34 spoilt ballots, or about 0.5% of total votes cast.



Only Great Yarmouth (5% of turnout) provides a summary of votes across the district instead of publishing individual ward results. It might be Friday afternoon but I can't be arsed checking every result. Random spot checks on a couple of wards suggest that about 2% or 3% of ballots have been spoilt in these districts. Although this is a big rise from a usual rate of 0.5% I'm not sure this is the huge protest vote story that some are making out (especially as these councils are in some of the more enthusiastic parts of Brexitland).

User avatar
eric olthwaite
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 10:14 pm
Location: Over there, behind that bush

Re: The state of UK politics

Postby eric olthwaite » Fri May 03, 2019 5:45 pm

Interesting outlier, but in the four Lewes town wards on the District Council Lib Dems lost seats to Greens. Now nine Greens and one (long-standing) indie.

Just as a minor local politics aside, dear old Ruth the indie is generally recognised to be mad as a box of frogs but if you ask to look into something she does, and she doesn’t stop until she gives you the best answer she can. Something in there about folk generally recognising people who make an effort, regardless of party loyalty.

Andymac-47
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 3:06 pm
Location: Belfast

Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Andymac-47 » Fri May 03, 2019 5:47 pm

Pissing myself over here, an openly gay DUP candidate (Allison Bennington) has won a seat on the Antrim & Newtonabbey council. We just might be moving forward here. :cheers: :cheers: Just have bring the rest of the UK with us.
In other news, The Free Presbyterian church are holding a protest to try and stop the Belfast Marathon taking place this Sunday, it's God's day of rest....... back to normal in 5 seconds. :(
Andymac

User avatar
eric olthwaite
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 10:14 pm
Location: Over there, behind that bush

Re: The state of UK politics

Postby eric olthwaite » Fri May 03, 2019 6:50 pm

Our Lord moves in mysterious ways :lol:

User avatar
jackos
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 7:49 am
Location: Stockholm

Re: The state of UK politics

Postby jackos » Fri May 03, 2019 8:37 pm

Vampire wrote:
Vampire wrote:Does that mean you’re resigning too?

Devi wrote:Resigned.

33 years voting, 22 years membership, 5 or 6 of which 'actively activist'...

I'm done.

I’d just urge you - hang in there - you’ll achieve more inside than outside..


Would agree with that. If we let the extremists win we're fucked. Far too few "ordinary" people are involved in communities and political parties these days. Corbynites managed to steal the Labour party from its members, Boris and his clan of self serving oinks control the Tory party. We're all fucked of we leave our future to the likes of them.


Return to “The Square Ball”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 11 guests