The state of UK politics

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Devi
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Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Devi » Fri May 03, 2019 12:10 pm

Im not convinced Green votes are entirely protest votes, given the recent flare up of 'green' issues. Lib Dems might be more protest. Ive never quite understood a local UKIP vote (and dont intent to start now).

I do, however, share the widely held (?) view that the Big 2 are going to have a very, very bumpy May 23rd.
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Yeboah
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Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Yeboah » Fri May 03, 2019 12:15 pm


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Vampire
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Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Vampire » Fri May 03, 2019 12:17 pm

Yeboah wrote:
Prof Curtice says Eurosceptic votes increased.


I’d love to see the analysis behind that - you got a link?

Yeboah wrote:I don’t think anyone is voting LD or Green by choice, it’s a protest vote against Lab and Con. from people who have no other choice in their area, and don’t want to spoil their ballots.


That’s a bit of a sweeping statement. People vote for all sorts of reasons but I’d be surprised if there aren’t a lot of pro Remain voters supporting those parties because they have an unequivocal pro Remain platform.

Yeboah wrote:% increases (from historic lows) also is a misleading stat.


Agree - and another reason why it’s such a terrible night for Labour. These seats were last contested in 2015 when the Conservatives did well and Labour had a bad result - so from that low base against a terrible mid term Government - they should have gained hundreds of seats. Instead, they’ve lost seats.

Yeboah wrote:Turnout volume and large increase in spoiled ballots cannot be ignored either.


Turnout doesn’t look all that much lower than usual for local elections. I think this spoilt paper thing is a bit sensationalist - how many as a percentage of voters? Pretty small beer really.
There will be no end to the problems afflicting mankind until economists become rulers, or, by some miracle, rulers become economists.

Yeboah
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Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Yeboah » Fri May 03, 2019 12:26 pm


Yeboah
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Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Yeboah » Fri May 03, 2019 12:30 pm

Elections analyst Prof John Curtice says that both Conservatives and Labour were "punished" by voters in local elections, with a similar drop in the share of the vote.

"We knew already that the Conservatives were in deep trouble as a result of their failure to deliver Brexit, but it also looks as if the Labour Party is being punished, because of the dissatisfaction with the way it's been reacting to the Brexit impasse," he tells BBC News.

But, he says, parties suffered most "where they were seen as part of the establishment", with Labour's vote falling most in the north and the Conservatives in the south.

He says it is a "wider protest" than Leave supporters abandoning Conservatives and Labour.

Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats made gains in places where they had previously been strong, not in the most pro-European areas, Prof Curtice says.

He says they were "beginning to act once again as the party of protest, which used to be their traditional role until they went into coalition with the Conservatives".

UKIP's vote was down from its peak in 2015, but higher than last year, when the party "came close to disappearing".

"We do have evidence that the Eurosceptic vote is back up," he says. "There’s a warning sign for the Conservatives."


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-poli ... 095/page/4

Yeboah
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Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Yeboah » Fri May 03, 2019 12:33 pm

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-d ... e-48143204

Labour lose control of bolsover for first time in 40 years.

70% leave area

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Vampire
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Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Vampire » Fri May 03, 2019 1:29 pm

Yeboah wrote:
Vampire wrote:Looks like a terrible night for Labour.

Governments always do badly in mid term elections - but this Conservative Government - the worst UK Government in my lifetime - was always going to be hammered. Any half decent Opposition would normally be a clear beneficiary - but instead Labour has lost seats too.

Some silly noises being made by McDonnell and the Lexiteers about the message from leave areas that Labour now needs to get on and deliver Brexit - sorry “jobs first Brexit” - as it’s called by the Leader who promised to put authenticity above spin.

Not sure that’s borne out by the transfer of votes from Labour to parties with a clear Remain platform - eg the Lib Dems and Greens.

And let’s not forget the biggest Remain areas in the UK - London and Scotland - didn’t vote in these elections. When the significant numbers of former Labour voting Remainers there get to pass their judgement on Corbyn’s pro Brexit policy - sorry “jobs first Brexit” policy - I suspect yesterday’s losses will look trivial.



Apart from Corbyn, main problem for Labour is that the Party members have a fundamentally different view on Brexit to their traditional core vote.

And no one there has the intelligence or ability to form a position and stick to it.

If they took a pro brexit position they’d eliminate Farage at a stroke.


The polling evidence contradicts you there. The vast majority of Labour supporters are pro Remain - so they stand to lose far more votes than they would gain from Corbyn’s pro Brexit policy.


Labour will win more votes than it loses by backing another referendum

The latest YouGov poll, published today, reinforces this point. Just 18% of Labour supporters think the UK was right to vote to leave the EU; 74% say we were wrong. Excluding the don’t knows (8%), the party divides: right 20%, wrong 80%.


And pro Remain sentiments are even more pronounced among the membership - which needs to be motivated to effectively fight elections.

Labour members significantly more opposed to Brexit than Corbyn

Labour members are significantly more opposed to Brexit than Jeremy Corbyn is, with 72% of them thinking their leader should fully support a second referendum, according to a study of attitudes in the party.

The polling, part of an ongoing wider academic study into attitudes in various parties, found that only 18% opposed Labour campaigning for a second referendum, while 88% would then opt for remain if such a vote was held.



As I said in my earlier post, the extent of the backlash against Labour from pro Remain areas has been significantly under-stated in these elections because the biggest Remain voting areas - London and Scotland - didn’t vote. That’s a backlash to come - and Labour has a lot of votes to lose in those areas.
There will be no end to the problems afflicting mankind until economists become rulers, or, by some miracle, rulers become economists.

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Vampire
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Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Vampire » Fri May 03, 2019 1:34 pm

Yeboah wrote:Elections analyst Prof John Curtice says that both Conservatives and Labour were "punished" by voters in local elections, with a similar drop in the share of the vote.

"We knew already that the Conservatives were in deep trouble as a result of their failure to deliver Brexit, but it also looks as if the Labour Party is being punished, because of the dissatisfaction with the way it's been reacting to the Brexit impasse," he tells BBC News.

But, he says, parties suffered most "where they were seen as part of the establishment", with Labour's vote falling most in the north and the Conservatives in the south.

He says it is a "wider protest" than Leave supporters abandoning Conservatives and Labour.

Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats made gains in places where they had previously been strong, not in the most pro-European areas, Prof Curtice says.

He says they were "beginning to act once again as the party of protest, which used to be their traditional role until they went into coalition with the Conservatives".

UKIP's vote was down from its peak in 2015, but higher than last year, when the party "came close to disappearing".

"We do have evidence that the Eurosceptic vote is back up," he says. "There’s a warning sign for the Conservatives."


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-poli ... 095/page/4


Respect to Professor Curtis but he’s merely stated there is evidence the Eurosceptic vote is “back up” - he hasn’t stated what that evidence actually is. I just can’t see it myself in an election where pro Remain parties have made heavy gains and pro Brexit parties heavy losses.
There will be no end to the problems afflicting mankind until economists become rulers, or, by some miracle, rulers become economists.

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Vampire
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Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Vampire » Fri May 03, 2019 2:00 pm

I do think that was quite rude of Rhys to heckle his Prime Minister in North Wales today - especially as she’d obviously made an effort to learn a bit of Welsh.

There will be no end to the problems afflicting mankind until economists become rulers, or, by some miracle, rulers become economists.

Yeboah
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Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Yeboah » Fri May 03, 2019 2:20 pm

@vampire

So if in the referendum, labour stronghold constituencies voted Leave in the main, the polls suggest they’ve changed their mind?

Don’t think that’s true when you look at what’s happened in

Sunderland
Middlesbrough
Bolsover

Plus where the brexit party is in the polls country wide for the EU elections.


Plus in Coopers constituency, Pontefract, massive leave and Labour fortress they came within 40 and 80 votes of losing councillors to independents. Unheard of territory.

In a GE I think most people would swing back behind traditional alliances, no one sensible wants to risk a Corbyn govt.

Yeboah
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Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Yeboah » Fri May 03, 2019 2:23 pm


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Vampire
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Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Vampire » Fri May 03, 2019 2:43 pm

Yeboah wrote:@vampire

So if in the referendum, labour stronghold constituencies voted Leave in the main, the polls suggest they’ve changed their mind?

Don’t think that’s true when you look at what’s happened in

Sunderland
Middlesbrough
Bolsover

Plus where the brexit party is in the polls country wide for the EU elections.


Plus in Coopers constituency, Pontefract, massive leave and Labour fortress they came within 40 and 80 votes of losing councillors to independents. Unheard of territory.

In a GE I think most people would swing back behind traditional alliances, no one sensible wants to risk a Corbyn govt.


The polling data is pretty clear that Labour will win far more votes and seats supporting Remain than supporting Brexit. It’s hardly rocket science to deduce that from polls showing over 70% of Labour voters and over 80% of members being Remainers. That doesn’t mean they may not lose some seats - but net gains will clearly be higher supporting Remain according to the polling evidence.

A couple of things you need to be careful of in your analysis:

First, just because a majority of voters in some Northern Labour seats voted Leave doesn’t mean a majority of Labour voters in those seats voted leave. Leave got over the line with Tory and UKIP votes. Even in those leave voting seats Labour may alienate more of its own voters with a pro Brexit platform than pro Remain. And it’s not going to win Tory votes by out Brexiting the Tories, UKIP, or Farage.

Second, just because Labour loses a Leave Council doesn’t mean that’s solely down to voters thinking it’s pro Remain (which btw it isn’t according to official policy). As previously noted people vote for a range of different reasons - some of them may simply have been voting out a poorly run Council. There’s insufficient data on Council voting at this early stage to make a call - but there’s more than enough data to prove beyond doubt that the overwhelming majority of Labour voters are Remain and the Party therefore stands to lose more than it gains by being (as it currently is) pro Brexit.
There will be no end to the problems afflicting mankind until economists become rulers, or, by some miracle, rulers become economists.

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Devi
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Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Devi » Fri May 03, 2019 2:47 pm

eric olthwaite wrote:
eric olthwaite wrote:Smells like a bit of a hot take, but here’s one way of looking at the local election results so far:

UKIP (ultra brexit) -70%
CON (hard brexit) -25%
LAB (sneaky brexit) -10%
LD (Remain) +110%
GRN (Remain) +550%


The source didn't state, hence my not taking it particularly seriously. Looking at Greens, I can only imagine that it could be total vote increase?


Found the source (@A50challenge on Twatter). Seems it’s a simplistic growth / decline analysis of the number of councillors across the contested seats.

If that is of any worth.
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Yeboah
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Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Yeboah » Fri May 03, 2019 2:47 pm


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Mustafaster
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Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Mustafaster » Fri May 03, 2019 2:48 pm

Maybe they should just appoint Farage as leader and have done with it.
Bound to win the next election.
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Vampire
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Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Vampire » Fri May 03, 2019 3:02 pm

Yeboah wrote:https://twitter.com/tony_robinson/status/1124297214472400898?s=21


You do realise he is pro Remain and one of the many quitting Labour in droves because of Corbyn’s pro Brexit policy?

As I’ve said, the polling evidence is clear - Labour’s voting base is over 70% Remain, their membership base over 80% remain, so they have far more to lose than gain from Corbyn’s pro Brexit duplicity. We’re already seeing it - we’ll see it even more in elections in Remain heartlands such as London and Scotland (not voting in these elections).
There will be no end to the problems afflicting mankind until economists become rulers, or, by some miracle, rulers become economists.

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eric olthwaite
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Re: The state of UK politics

Postby eric olthwaite » Fri May 03, 2019 3:03 pm

Devi wrote:Im not convinced Green votes are entirely protest votes, given the recent flare up of 'green' issues


Yes, there a number of overlapping things. One is happy coincidental timing with XR. Then there are Labour remainers who won't touch the Lib Dems post-2010. I voted Green partly because our Green councillors have been good, to date.

Yeboah
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Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Yeboah » Fri May 03, 2019 3:04 pm

Vampire wrote:
Yeboah wrote:@vampire

So if in the referendum, labour stronghold constituencies voted Leave in the main, the polls suggest they’ve changed their mind?

Don’t think that’s true when you look at what’s happened in

Sunderland
Middlesbrough
Bolsover

Plus where the brexit party is in the polls country wide for the EU elections.


Plus in Coopers constituency, Pontefract, massive leave and Labour fortress they came within 40 and 80 votes of losing councillors to independents. Unheard of territory.

In a GE I think most people would swing back behind traditional alliances, no one sensible wants to risk a Corbyn govt.


The polling data is pretty clear that Labour will win far more votes and seats supporting Remain than supporting Brexit. It’s hardly rocket science to deduce that from polls showing over 70% of Labour voters and over 80% of members being Remainers. That doesn’t mean they may not lose some seats - but net gains will clearly be higher supporting Remain according to the polling evidence.

A couple of things you need to be careful of in your analysis:

First, just because a majority of voters in some Northern Labour seats voted Leave doesn’t mean a majority of Labour voters in those seats voted leave. Leave got over the line with Tory and UKIP votes. Even in those leave voting seats Labour may alienate more of its own voters with a pro Brexit platform than pro Remain. And it’s not going to win Tory votes by out Brexiting the Tories, UKIP, or Farage.

Second, just because Labour loses a Leave Council doesn’t mean that’s solely down to voters thinking it’s pro Remain (which btw it isn’t according to official policy). As previously noted people vote for a range of different reasons - some of them may simply have been voting out a poorly run Council. There’s insufficient data on Council voting at this early stage to make a call - but there’s more than enough data to prove beyond doubt that the overwhelming majority of Labour voters are Remain and the Party therefore stands to lose more than it gains by being (as it currently is) pro Brexit.


Love to see where the polling was done.... in real actual results, they appear to be nonsense. On your other points I disagree completely so we will need to agree to differ.

7/10 labour held constituencies voted leave in 2016 ref.

https://labourheartlands.com/labour-con ... ve-the-eu/

This isn’t just a selected few northern places.

I think in reality there are 2 labour parties who are trying to do-exist under 1 banner.

Traditional northern core vote
London

The traditional labour vote sides with Farage on EU in the main, hence his current 10 point poll lead. And the comments by Sunderland leader, Pontefract councillor and result in Boro mayoral race.

Labour voters outside of London, overwhelming back brexit based an actual election results.

If the Tory govt. continues on a sudo remain course despite everything then swinging behind a proper brexit for labour (which is what the leader wants) would bring them many, many more votes.

Membership don’t want it, but the members can’t get them into power. They are a hinderance.

Yeboah
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Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Yeboah » Fri May 03, 2019 3:06 pm

Vampire wrote:
Yeboah wrote:https://twitter.com/tony_robinson/status/1124297214472400898?s=21


You do realise he is pro Remain and one of the many quitting Labour in droves because of Corbyn’s pro Brexit policy?

As I’ve said, the polling evidence is clear - Labour’s voting base is over 70% Remain, their membership base over 80% remain, so they have far more to lose than gain from Corbyn’s pro Brexit duplicity. We’re already seeing it - we’ll see it even more in elections in Remain heartlands such as London and Scotland (not voting in these elections).


It was the leadership is shit comment that tickled me....he can do what he wants. He was funny with someone else’s script....once.

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Vampire
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Re: The state of UK politics

Postby Vampire » Fri May 03, 2019 3:21 pm

Yeboah wrote:
Vampire wrote:
Yeboah wrote:https://twitter.com/tony_robinson/status/1124297214472400898?s=21


You do realise he is pro Remain and one of the many quitting Labour in droves because of Corbyn’s pro Brexit policy?

As I’ve said, the polling evidence is clear - Labour’s voting base is over 70% Remain, their membership base over 80% remain, so they have far more to lose than gain from Corbyn’s pro Brexit duplicity. We’re already seeing it - we’ll see it even more in elections in Remain heartlands such as London and Scotland (not voting in these elections).


It was the leadership is shit comment that tickled me....


That’s a given - no need to debate that.
:mrgreen:
There will be no end to the problems afflicting mankind until economists become rulers, or, by some miracle, rulers become economists.


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