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Re: football bets

Posted: Sun Sep 03, 2017 5:47 pm
by Quiffy
welshwhite wrote:
Ontolly wrote:Ever the optimist me - I'm waiting until after we under perform at our next two home games before putting a wedge on better odds than 10/1 :thumbl:


On the other side of the coin, if we win our two next games our odds will shorten, I will be putting some more money on us if they do...its all very open this year. I can see us going for it big time in the January transfer window if we're up there with a chance.

indeed, wtf are cardiff doing at 6/1? just shows that the bookies are not confident at all about this market. if they can price colin's mob as second favourites then a couple of wins against burton and brum will definitely shorten our odds. invest your money now ontolly.

Re: football bets

Posted: Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:36 pm
by Ontolly
I have taken counsel and punted 20 at 10/1. When I drag this thread up next April we shall raise our glasses to whatsisname and the other one.

Re: football bets

Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:52 am
by Ontolly
Just had a cheeky double on Leeds and Barnsley winning tonight. I know it's money down the drain but Barnsley are 20/1 in a two horse race and we are like 3/1 or something.

And there's probably a reason for that :pale: :roll:

Re: football bets

Posted: Tue Sep 26, 2017 4:28 pm
by Supernorm
Marchingontogether is running tonight, 6:40 Chelmsford, currently 5/4. :bounce:

football bets

Posted: Tue Sep 26, 2017 7:33 pm
by Still Hates Gordon Watson
Supernorm wrote:Marchingontogether is running tonight, 6:40 Chelmsford, currently 5/4. :bounce:


Started top of the betting table as favourite and finished sixth. Seems about right tonight sadly.

Re: football bets

Posted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 6:39 am
by Supernorm
Still Hates Gordon Watson wrote:
Supernorm wrote:Marchingontogether is running tonight, 6:40 Chelmsford, currently 5/4. :bounce:


Started top of the betting table as favourite and finished sixth. Seems about right tonight sadly.


My mate's lad reminded me it was running, when he sent me a screenshot of his Marchingontogether/Leeds Utd double :pale:
I'd 8 quid on it :cry:

Re: football bets

Posted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 11:53 am
by FER
Saw and ad for Coral (I think) offering 33/1 on Citeh last night. Small print said can only bet £1 and any winnings paid in free bets. Fuck's the point?

... I know, I know, to suck you in etc. etc. but, come on!

football bets

Posted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 5:18 pm
by Still Hates Gordon Watson
FER wrote:Saw and ad for Coral (I think) offering 33/1 on Citeh last night. Small print said can only bet £1 and any winnings paid in free bets. Fuck's the point?

... I know, I know, to suck you in etc. etc. but, come on!


I get shit like that from LUFC all the time. Noticed last week that they seem to have switched from Coral to Ladbrokes.

Re: football bets

Posted: Thu Sep 28, 2017 11:37 am
by FER
Saw some lad on Twitter after the Ipswich game who'd bet with Paddy on Leeds to win and Lasogga to score. They refused to pay him out because of the own goal. Fuck knows how they figured that one out!

Re: football bets

Posted: Thu Sep 28, 2017 11:43 am
by topbin
FER wrote:Saw some lad on Twitter after the Ipswich game who'd bet with Paddy on Leeds to win and Lasogga to score. They refused to pay him out because of the own goal. Fuck knows how they figured that one out!


This was sorted the next morning though, I think. Still, abhorrent behaviour from PaddyPower (who'da thunk?)

Re: football bets

Posted: Thu Sep 28, 2017 12:16 pm
by dirty leeds
Would have been an interesting discussion if he'd had Leeds to win and Pablo to score, though. That ball was going in... :mrgreen:

Re: football bets

Posted: Thu Nov 16, 2017 9:25 am
by Tycipa
I don't gamble so maybe this is not news to those that do but I was absolutely staggered to read this week that Bet365 took in bets last year to the value of £47bn. They made £500m in profit which means that the rest less expenses went back to the punter - have I got that right?

Re: football bets

Posted: Thu Nov 16, 2017 11:01 am
by Ontolly
Tycipa wrote:I don't gamble so maybe this is not news to those that do but I was absolutely staggered to read this week that Bet365 took in bets last year to the value of £47bn. They made £500m in profit which means that the rest less expenses went back to the punter - have I got that right?


I'd say that they declared 500m profit for tax purposes. The punter wouldn't have got that much back :rambo:

Re: football bets

Posted: Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:21 pm
by Quiffy
roughly £500m out of £47bn = 1.06%, which seems pretty reasonable, given that bet365's betting margin is 4.5%, ie their gross profit on bets will be about £2.1bn.

http://www.top100bookmakers.com/profit-margin/

so their expenses must be about 3.44%, which is about £1.62bn.

no wonder the peaky blinders wanted some of the action.

Re: football bets

Posted: Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:32 pm
by the flying pig
Tycipa wrote:I don't gamble so maybe this is not news to those that do but I was absolutely staggered to read this week that Bet365 took in bets last year to the value of £47bn. They made £500m in profit which means that the rest less expenses went back to the punter - have I got that right?


so pretty much exactly a 1% profit margin.

maybe a crude rule of thumb might be that they make a 'gross' margin of say a few percent gambling, but that more than half of that goes on overheads [not least the CEO's sizeable paypacket].

bookmaking is for sure a high volume-low margin business.

the difference i suppose between buy & sell prices [which i'm no expert on] will reveal somethign about their gross margins.

[edit] i started posting this hours ago, before i saw quiffy's post, which looks more detailed/considered/informed than mine.

Re: football bets

Posted: Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:51 pm
by Quiffy
think this is how it works, for sunday, on bet 365 the odds are

leeds 15/8 = 34.7% chance (8/23)
draw 11/5 = 31.3% chance (5/16)
midds 6/4 = 40% chance (4/10)
total = 106%, so a 6% mark up on the game, not the 4.5% as in the link.

Re: football bets

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:04 am
by welshwhite
I went to put 3 quid on potato head to score first last night, had problems logging into my Bet Victor account, cut a long story short put 33 quid on by mistake. He missed a pen and headed in the rebound...result almost 200 quid won.

29/11/2017 GBP 33.00 Single: WAYNE ROONEY @ 5/1 Returns: £198.00
EVENT SELECTION PRICE E/W TERMS RESULT STATUS
Everton v West Ham ENG Premier League 1st Goal Scorer - 90 Mins Wayne Rooney 5/1 Win only Won Settled

Re: football bets

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:15 am
by Supernorm
welshwhite wrote:I went to put 3 quid on potato head to score first last night, had problems logging into my Bet Victor account, cut a long story short put 33 quid on by mistake. He missed a pen and headed in the rebound...result almost 200 quid won.

29/11/2017 GBP 33.00 Single: WAYNE ROONEY @ 5/1 Returns: £198.00
EVENT SELECTION PRICE E/W TERMS RESULT STATUS
Everton v West Ham ENG Premier League 1st Goal Scorer - 90 Mins Wayne Rooney 5/1 Win only Won Settled

Nice one :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

Re: football bets

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:35 am
by Devi
Quiffy wrote:think this is how it works, for sunday, on bet 365 the odds are

leeds 15/8 = 34.7% chance (8/23)
draw 11/5 = 31.3% chance (5/16)
midds 6/4 = 40% chance (4/10)
total = 106%, so a 6% mark up on the game, not the 4.5% as in the link.


That’s precisely how it works.

#onetimelicencedbookie

E2a the same is true where more than three options present (eg horse racing). Bookies will offer combined odds of ITRO 105-115%, irrespective of the number of runners.

Re: football bets

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:26 pm
by Dale White
We are a bit skinny on paddy power for a home win on Friday, 13/10 owt better out there ?