football bets

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Quiffy
Joined: Thu May 01, 2008 6:56 pm

Re: football bets

Postby Quiffy » Sun Sep 03, 2017 5:47 pm

welshwhite wrote:
Ontolly wrote:Ever the optimist me - I'm waiting until after we under perform at our next two home games before putting a wedge on better odds than 10/1 :thumbl:


On the other side of the coin, if we win our two next games our odds will shorten, I will be putting some more money on us if they do...its all very open this year. I can see us going for it big time in the January transfer window if we're up there with a chance.

indeed, wtf are cardiff doing at 6/1? just shows that the bookies are not confident at all about this market. if they can price colin's mob as second favourites then a couple of wins against burton and brum will definitely shorten our odds. invest your money now ontolly.
increasing doubt, decreasing hope, even my imaginary friend went and changed his mind.

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Ontolly
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 9:36 pm
Location: Shrewsbury

Re: football bets

Postby Ontolly » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:36 pm

I have taken counsel and punted 20 at 10/1. When I drag this thread up next April we shall raise our glasses to whatsisname and the other one.
The only thing we knew for sure about Henry Porter was that his name wasn't Henry Porter.

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Ontolly
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 9:36 pm
Location: Shrewsbury

Re: football bets

Postby Ontolly » Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:52 am

Just had a cheeky double on Leeds and Barnsley winning tonight. I know it's money down the drain but Barnsley are 20/1 in a two horse race and we are like 3/1 or something.

And there's probably a reason for that :pale: :roll:
The only thing we knew for sure about Henry Porter was that his name wasn't Henry Porter.

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Supernorm
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 8:36 am
Location: NI

Re: football bets

Postby Supernorm » Tue Sep 26, 2017 4:28 pm

Marchingontogether is running tonight, 6:40 Chelmsford, currently 5/4. :bounce:
Gripper wrote: "I did a Shaolin Qi-Gong taster sesh a few weeks back. Dead good it was" :lol: :lol: :lol:

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Still Hates Gordon Watson
Joined: Mon Oct 15, 2012 7:01 pm

football bets

Postby Still Hates Gordon Watson » Tue Sep 26, 2017 7:33 pm

Supernorm wrote:Marchingontogether is running tonight, 6:40 Chelmsford, currently 5/4. :bounce:


Started top of the betting table as favourite and finished sixth. Seems about right tonight sadly.

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Supernorm
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 8:36 am
Location: NI

Re: football bets

Postby Supernorm » Wed Sep 27, 2017 6:39 am

Still Hates Gordon Watson wrote:
Supernorm wrote:Marchingontogether is running tonight, 6:40 Chelmsford, currently 5/4. :bounce:


Started top of the betting table as favourite and finished sixth. Seems about right tonight sadly.


My mate's lad reminded me it was running, when he sent me a screenshot of his Marchingontogether/Leeds Utd double :pale:
I'd 8 quid on it :cry:
Gripper wrote: "I did a Shaolin Qi-Gong taster sesh a few weeks back. Dead good it was" :lol: :lol: :lol:

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FER
Joined: Sun May 04, 2008 8:44 am
Location: Hanging Out The Back Of Winona Ryder

Re: football bets

Postby FER » Wed Sep 27, 2017 11:53 am

Saw and ad for Coral (I think) offering 33/1 on Citeh last night. Small print said can only bet £1 and any winnings paid in free bets. Fuck's the point?

... I know, I know, to suck you in etc. etc. but, come on!
Squareball Prediction League Champion 2004/2005

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Still Hates Gordon Watson
Joined: Mon Oct 15, 2012 7:01 pm

football bets

Postby Still Hates Gordon Watson » Wed Sep 27, 2017 5:18 pm

FER wrote:Saw and ad for Coral (I think) offering 33/1 on Citeh last night. Small print said can only bet £1 and any winnings paid in free bets. Fuck's the point?

... I know, I know, to suck you in etc. etc. but, come on!


I get shit like that from LUFC all the time. Noticed last week that they seem to have switched from Coral to Ladbrokes.

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FER
Joined: Sun May 04, 2008 8:44 am
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Re: football bets

Postby FER » Thu Sep 28, 2017 11:37 am

Saw some lad on Twitter after the Ipswich game who'd bet with Paddy on Leeds to win and Lasogga to score. They refused to pay him out because of the own goal. Fuck knows how they figured that one out!
Squareball Prediction League Champion 2004/2005

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topbin
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 9:15 pm
Location: Leeds

Re: football bets

Postby topbin » Thu Sep 28, 2017 11:43 am

FER wrote:Saw some lad on Twitter after the Ipswich game who'd bet with Paddy on Leeds to win and Lasogga to score. They refused to pay him out because of the own goal. Fuck knows how they figured that one out!


This was sorted the next morning though, I think. Still, abhorrent behaviour from PaddyPower (who'da thunk?)

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dirty leeds
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 12:13 pm
Location: London

Re: football bets

Postby dirty leeds » Thu Sep 28, 2017 12:16 pm

Would have been an interesting discussion if he'd had Leeds to win and Pablo to score, though. That ball was going in... :mrgreen:

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Tycipa
Joined: Thu Jul 19, 2012 4:39 pm

Re: football bets

Postby Tycipa » Thu Nov 16, 2017 9:25 am

I don't gamble so maybe this is not news to those that do but I was absolutely staggered to read this week that Bet365 took in bets last year to the value of £47bn. They made £500m in profit which means that the rest less expenses went back to the punter - have I got that right?
The fact that we are not taking care of the planet, our children will pay the consequences. With football it will be the same because we're destroying football and in the future we'll see the negative effects. Those who have power are responsible for it.

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Ontolly
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 9:36 pm
Location: Shrewsbury

Re: football bets

Postby Ontolly » Thu Nov 16, 2017 11:01 am

Tycipa wrote:I don't gamble so maybe this is not news to those that do but I was absolutely staggered to read this week that Bet365 took in bets last year to the value of £47bn. They made £500m in profit which means that the rest less expenses went back to the punter - have I got that right?


I'd say that they declared 500m profit for tax purposes. The punter wouldn't have got that much back :rambo:
The only thing we knew for sure about Henry Porter was that his name wasn't Henry Porter.

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Quiffy
Joined: Thu May 01, 2008 6:56 pm

Re: football bets

Postby Quiffy » Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:21 pm

roughly £500m out of £47bn = 1.06%, which seems pretty reasonable, given that bet365's betting margin is 4.5%, ie their gross profit on bets will be about £2.1bn.

http://www.top100bookmakers.com/profit-margin/

so their expenses must be about 3.44%, which is about £1.62bn.

no wonder the peaky blinders wanted some of the action.
increasing doubt, decreasing hope, even my imaginary friend went and changed his mind.

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the flying pig
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 8:24 am

Re: football bets

Postby the flying pig » Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:32 pm

Tycipa wrote:I don't gamble so maybe this is not news to those that do but I was absolutely staggered to read this week that Bet365 took in bets last year to the value of £47bn. They made £500m in profit which means that the rest less expenses went back to the punter - have I got that right?


so pretty much exactly a 1% profit margin.

maybe a crude rule of thumb might be that they make a 'gross' margin of say a few percent gambling, but that more than half of that goes on overheads [not least the CEO's sizeable paypacket].

bookmaking is for sure a high volume-low margin business.

the difference i suppose between buy & sell prices [which i'm no expert on] will reveal somethign about their gross margins.

[edit] i started posting this hours ago, before i saw quiffy's post, which looks more detailed/considered/informed than mine.

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Quiffy
Joined: Thu May 01, 2008 6:56 pm

Re: football bets

Postby Quiffy » Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:51 pm

think this is how it works, for sunday, on bet 365 the odds are

leeds 15/8 = 34.7% chance (8/23)
draw 11/5 = 31.3% chance (5/16)
midds 6/4 = 40% chance (4/10)
total = 106%, so a 6% mark up on the game, not the 4.5% as in the link.
increasing doubt, decreasing hope, even my imaginary friend went and changed his mind.

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welshwhite
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 9:15 pm

Re: football bets

Postby welshwhite » Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:04 am

I went to put 3 quid on potato head to score first last night, had problems logging into my Bet Victor account, cut a long story short put 33 quid on by mistake. He missed a pen and headed in the rebound...result almost 200 quid won.

29/11/2017 GBP 33.00 Single: WAYNE ROONEY @ 5/1 Returns: £198.00
EVENT SELECTION PRICE E/W TERMS RESULT STATUS
Everton v West Ham ENG Premier League 1st Goal Scorer - 90 Mins Wayne Rooney 5/1 Win only Won Settled

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Supernorm
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 8:36 am
Location: NI

Re: football bets

Postby Supernorm » Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:15 am

welshwhite wrote:I went to put 3 quid on potato head to score first last night, had problems logging into my Bet Victor account, cut a long story short put 33 quid on by mistake. He missed a pen and headed in the rebound...result almost 200 quid won.

29/11/2017 GBP 33.00 Single: WAYNE ROONEY @ 5/1 Returns: £198.00
EVENT SELECTION PRICE E/W TERMS RESULT STATUS
Everton v West Ham ENG Premier League 1st Goal Scorer - 90 Mins Wayne Rooney 5/1 Win only Won Settled

Nice one :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Gripper wrote: "I did a Shaolin Qi-Gong taster sesh a few weeks back. Dead good it was" :lol: :lol: :lol:

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Devi
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2013 6:15 pm
Location: Crystal Palarse

Re: football bets

Postby Devi » Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:35 am

Quiffy wrote:think this is how it works, for sunday, on bet 365 the odds are

leeds 15/8 = 34.7% chance (8/23)
draw 11/5 = 31.3% chance (5/16)
midds 6/4 = 40% chance (4/10)
total = 106%, so a 6% mark up on the game, not the 4.5% as in the link.


That’s precisely how it works.

#onetimelicencedbookie

E2a the same is true where more than three options present (eg horse racing). Bookies will offer combined odds of ITRO 105-115%, irrespective of the number of runners.
I like it. What is it?

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Dale White
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2008 7:57 pm
Location: Rochdale

Re: football bets

Postby Dale White » Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:26 pm

We are a bit skinny on paddy power for a home win on Friday, 13/10 owt better out there ?
FUCK OFF BATES !!!


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