Occasional statto attack

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Blackwhite
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Blackwhite » Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:08 pm

"memorably described", dear heart.

Try harder. 8)
You know, I'm sick of following my dreams, man. I'm just going to ask where they're going and hook up with 'em later.

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dirty leeds
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby dirty leeds » Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:14 pm

eric olthwaite wrote:Re: dirty’s metric about us only having one game against a ‘contender’ left to play.

It occurs to me that it isn’t beyond the realms of possibility that Cardiff, Blackburn and Swansea could all be contenders by the time we play them.


Yeah, I know. Cardiff don't lose many; they draw a lot. Blackburn have definitely picked up. I'd say they are probably the most dangerous team we play away from home - but we'll have huge away support that match. We don't actually have to go unbeaten all the way through [as nice as it would be]. We just have to keep winning enough.

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eric olthwaite
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby eric olthwaite » Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:16 pm

It’s those Cardiff fuckers I worry about. Hope that one’s not a six pointer.
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Blackwhite
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Blackwhite » Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:36 pm

eric olthwaite wrote:It’s those Cardiff fuckers I worry about. Hope that one’s not a six pointer.

Oh God.


I hope I get Corona, I'm gonna smash the modem. I'm that old.
You know, I'm sick of following my dreams, man. I'm just going to ask where they're going and hook up with 'em later.

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eric olthwaite
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby eric olthwaite » Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:35 am

So I had a quick look at this time last season. The numbers represent PPG up to 36 games, then for the final 10 games. I realise one season isn’t really statistically robust, but I was wondering whether there’s any sort of ‘sprint for the line’ effect.

There is, for every other set of cunts:

Norwich 2.00 2.20
Blunts 1.89 2.10
LUFC 1.94 1.30
WBA 1.69 1.90
Villa 1.42 2.50
FLDC 1.53 1.90

I think our current PPG would land us on 87 points. We could do with a couple more.
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Phil LUFC
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Phil LUFC » Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:56 am

eric olthwaite wrote:So I had a quick look at this time last season. The numbers represent PPG up to 36 games, then for the final 10 games. I realise one season isn’t really statistically robust, but I was wondering whether there’s any sort of ‘sprint for the line’ effect.

There is, for every other set of cunts:

Norwich 2.00 2.20
Blunts 1.89 2.10
LUFC 1.94 1.30
WBA 1.69 1.90
Villa 1.42 2.50
FLDC 1.53 1.90

I think our current PPG would land us on 87 points. We could do with a couple more.

Ahem, top 3 over the past 5 seasons. There's a definite trend (which we bucked last season). Every one of them below 70 points at this stage got at least 21 points from the last 10. Cardiff in 17/18 (on 73 at this point) are the lowest of the sides to tail off (aside from us last season) and they still got 90 points. Might add playoff winners (where it's not the team who finished 3rd) for next week.
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eric olthwaite
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby eric olthwaite » Tue Mar 03, 2020 9:11 am

Not sure that's quite looking from the same angle? Your chart has eg Newcastle in second by ultimate points total, but their drop off in the last ten was nearly as bad as ours last year. Maybe they were home and hosed early on and stopped giving a fuck?

So, anyway, rank that table by % increase / decrease for the top six teams, last five seasons. Then we'll talk :thumbl:
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Quiffy
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Quiffy » Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:48 pm

saw a stat about our run in over the last 10 games - we're against on average the 15th placed team, no news there, but this time last year in our last 10 games we were against on average the 15th placed team and we only managed 13 points from them games.

just using this to keep my feet on the ground. it's different this year innit?
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dirty leeds
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby dirty leeds » Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:50 pm

Quiffy wrote:saw a stat about our run in over the last 10 games - we're against on average the 15th placed team, no news there, but this time last year in our last 10 games we were against on average the 15th placed team and we only managed 13 points from them games.

just using this to keep my feet on the ground. it's different this year innit?



Yes.

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Matt White
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Matt White » Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:50 am

Quiffy wrote:saw a stat about our run in over the last 10 games - we're against on average the 15th placed team, no news there, but this time last year in our last 10 games we were against on average the 15th placed team and we only managed 13 points from them games.

just using this to keep my feet on the ground. it's different this year innit?


Ah but using my patented weighted form guide (where recent matches weigh more), the average is 11th placed now. Our position is 3rd BTW. "Only" Hudds (5th), Fulham (2nd), Luton and Blackburn are top 10

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Phil LUFC
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Phil LUFC » Mon Jun 22, 2020 5:44 pm

My latest attempt to deal with LUFC related stress during these final few weeks:


Purely on the mathematical worst case (and probably incorrect due to head to heads though I have adjusted for Preston v Cardiff), the job we have to do to go up is the same job Brentford have to do to make the play-offs - 18 points from 24 available.

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eric olthwaite
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby eric olthwaite » Sat Jun 27, 2020 5:38 pm

Trying to make sense of what we’ll need to get promoted. There’s only one season in the last ten when the top place has had fewer points after 39 games.

Pragmatically, Brentford shouldn’t really expect do better than 2ppg, so even a point per game might do us from here.
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Phil LUFC
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Phil LUFC » Sat Jun 27, 2020 5:44 pm

eric olthwaite wrote:Trying to make sense of what we’ll need to get promoted. There’s only one season in the last ten when the top place has had fewer points after 39 games.

Pragmatically, Brentford shouldn’t really expect do better than 2ppg, so even a point per game might do us from here.

I'm sticking with mathematically, anything else feels foolish. I can see Brentford getting 5 wins from their 7 games and while its unlikely they'll go unbeaten I'm assuming 2 draws. 17 points takes them to 83 in which case 10 points will be enough. You may be right on 1PPG but if that's what we achieve we'll be shitting ourselves for the last 2 or 3 games.

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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Munson » Tue Jul 28, 2020 7:42 am

:scratch: Apparently a large percentage of footballers do not like stats.

Paywall article on Athletic about use/ownership of player stats and class action...

Mischevious lawyering? breach of personal data usage? or late April Fools attempt?

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Professor Weeto
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Professor Weeto » Tue Jul 28, 2020 7:51 am

Munson wrote::scratch: Apparently a large percentage of footballers do not like stats.

Paywall article on Athletic about use/ownership of player stats and class action...

Mischevious lawyering? breach of personal data usage? or late April Fools attempt?


I was having a bit of a rant about this the other day. Seems utterly ridiculous on the surface of things, and remains so under scrutiny imo, but it does seem like a lot of the argument is around gambling firms using player statistics and data to make money off of vulnerable people. The solution, imo, is to band gambling firms from using such data, rather than kicking up some of the blood money to the players.


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