Ponte wrote:eric olthwaite wrote:Ben Mayhew, the stats blog fella, says here that we're 90% certain of auto if we beat Blunts, 50/50 if we lose.
No pressure there, then.
Football is constantly on my mind atm. It's horrible
Phil LUFC wrote:
I've been following his stats fairly clearly in recent weeks, what's apparent in his model is that points on the board make a huge difference (for obvious reasons). Us and the blades are right at the top of his xG model so I assume he's projecting a draw within his existing forecasts. But he'll pretty much also be forecasting a high probably of wins for each of the top 3 in almost all remaining games so I take it with a pinch of salt.
We dropped over 10% after losing to QPR for example, not really because of that game but because it put us 2nd with no games in hand. We didn't gain anything like as much after beating West Brom because it ultimately changed nothing (I bet the blades draw with Wednesday caused the bigger part of that shift that weekend).
Still, massive game and I've not been able to park it to the side in the way I have other games recently.
Mr Reality wrote:I think it could be a little higher 87 needed given current form. 89 possibly.
eric olthwaite wrote:Mr Reality wrote:I think it could be a little higher 87 needed given current form. 89 possibly.
There are two particular precedents I’ve looked at for tight three way battles: 1998 and 2012. In both cases teams traded places right up to the wire It seems likely that in this situation there’ll be an acceleration in PPG for the top two for the last few games - at least relative to a situation where two teams are away and cruising. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 92/90 for the auto places and unfortunately I don’t think anything will be fixed until the last game or two.
MightyWhite wrote:their great recent defensive record owes as much to the opposition spurning chances as it does great defending
jackos wrote:MightyWhite wrote:their great recent defensive record owes as much to the opposition spurning chances as it does great defending
Five in defence, or was it 8, dirty bastards, looked like they were purposely trying to fuck Bamfordz knee at times, should have had a red and a few more yellows. All that. They waited for our mistake and we lost. 3p is all that matters at this point in the season.
eric olthwaite wrote:Interesting that the next two opponents for both of us are well matched.