Occasional statto attack

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Ponte
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 9:36 am
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Ponte » Fri Mar 08, 2019 3:09 pm

eric olthwaite wrote:
Phil LUFC wrote:Stumbled on this a month late but worth sharing as it pretty much says we're the best in the division and are going up as fucking champions:
https://experimental361.com/2019/02/04/ ... -feb-2019/


Interesting. The pessimist's take-aways from there are:

- Shots taken per goal scored is higher than our three rivals
- Shots faced per goals conceded is lower than those three, too.

Stating the bleedin' obvious but convert a few more chances and tighten up a bit and we absolutely annihilate this division. If you apply the average of the other three's goals per shot to our number of shots we'd have scored 76 rather than 59. An extra goal every other game: that would have to be worth at least another ten points, never mind the GD.

It's all a bit dubious if you don't know where our missed shots came from and why we conceded, but it does look as if we're doing everything right in the middle of the park at least.


If I was a fan of another club I'd say Leeds were nailed on to go up. As I'm not, I don't think we are.
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Hmmm.

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Phil LUFC
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2008 12:26 pm
Location: Scunthorpe

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Phil LUFC » Fri Mar 08, 2019 5:54 pm

Ponte wrote:
eric olthwaite wrote:
Phil LUFC wrote:Stumbled on this a month late but worth sharing as it pretty much says we're the best in the division and are going up as fucking champions:
https://experimental361.com/2019/02/04/ ... -feb-2019/


Interesting. The pessimist's take-aways from there are:

- Shots taken per goal scored is higher than our three rivals
- Shots faced per goals conceded is lower than those three, too.

Stating the bleedin' obvious but convert a few more chances and tighten up a bit and we absolutely annihilate this division. If you apply the average of the other three's goals per shot to our number of shots we'd have scored 76 rather than 59. An extra goal every other game: that would have to be worth at least another ten points, never mind the GD.

It's all a bit dubious if you don't know where our missed shots came from and why we conceded, but it does look as if we're doing everything right in the middle of the park at least.


If I was a fan of another club I'd say Leeds were nailed on to go up. As I'm not, I don't think we are.

Aye, that was behind my initial flippant opinion on it. It'd be hard to conclude anything else, I'd assume the goals would start to flow based on the last game being 4-0. My (positive) LUFC based on conclusion is we'll finish 2nd to Sheff Utd based on that last chart. More negative would be: I don't expect Norwich to fall away so I'm probably saying Sheff Utd are marginally more effective and will pip us on GD.

Regardless of what it may mean for the rest of the season, no-one can say we're lucky to be where we are.

nic
Joined: Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:49 am

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby nic » Fri Mar 08, 2019 8:45 pm

..

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eric olthwaite
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 10:14 pm
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby eric olthwaite » Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:11 am

nic wrote:The polar opposite of Leeds position is the two bottom teams of the division. So it shows that the team plays well by creating chances and stopping the opposition getting chances. It is our conversion rate that stops us of being several points clear, and as always its scoring goals that wins matches. There is no reason to suppose our conversion rate will stay the same, and if we improve it, such a Bamford making most of the chances he gets, then GD may not be an issue.


Remarkable post. Initially appears to be written in bot-glish, but then isn’t entirely incorrect x

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Blackwhite
Joined: Sun Feb 24, 2008 1:07 am
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Blackwhite » Sat Mar 09, 2019 8:09 am

Didn't try to sell you a handbag either, so somehow both great for us and terrible for Tfp when he forgets her birthday AGAIN.
You know, I'm sick of following my dreams, man. I'm just going to ask where they're going and hook up with 'em later.

nic
Joined: Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:49 am

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby nic » Sat Mar 09, 2019 10:35 am

:thumbd:

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Phil LUFC
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Location: Scunthorpe

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Phil LUFC » Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:41 pm

With 10 games to go I found myself idly wondering what our general record is like in the last 10 games of seasons which matter. Did some quick checks:
89-90: 15pts
91-92: 18pts
98-99: 17pts (wasn't enough for a CL place)
99-00: 12pts (was enough thanks to Bradford's amazing efforts against Liverpool)
09-10: 15pts
05-06: 9pts (we're 1 point ahead of where we were this time that season, we'd have needed 23pts from 30 to finish 2nd (21 if we'd beaten 2nd place Sheff Utd instead of drawn))
16-17: 10pts (Fuck Garry Monk)

I've turned it over to stats for some proper analysis across our history. Every cunt has been banging on about burnout, no cunt has really mentioned our uncanny ability to fall just short.

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Blackwhite
Joined: Sun Feb 24, 2008 1:07 am
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Blackwhite » Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:48 pm

This might answer the Nature/Nurture question too :lol:
You know, I'm sick of following my dreams, man. I'm just going to ask where they're going and hook up with 'em later.

Wakefield White
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 11:57 pm
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Wakefield White » Tue Mar 12, 2019 12:23 am

Just seen this
Fuck you Rod Liddle, fuck you in your cunting fuckface you fucking third division cunt!
(courtesy of Ponte)

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the flying pig
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 8:24 am

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby the flying pig » Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:16 am

Phil LUFC wrote:With 10 games to go I found myself idly wondering what our general record is like in the last 10 games of seasons which matter. Did some quick checks:
89-90: 15pts
91-92: 18pts
98-99: 17pts (wasn't enough for a CL place)
99-00: 12pts (was enough thanks to Bradford's amazing efforts against Liverpool)
09-10: 15pts
05-06: 9pts (we're 1 point ahead of where we were this time that season, we'd have needed 23pts from 30 to finish 2nd (21 if we'd beaten 2nd place Sheff Utd instead of drawn))
16-17: 10pts (Fuck Garry Monk)

I've turned it over to stats for some proper analysis across our history. Every cunt has been banging on about burnout, no cunt has really mentioned our uncanny ability to fall just short.


Cheers P, just put you on ignore :thumbl:

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eric olthwaite
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby eric olthwaite » Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:30 am

Phil LUFC wrote:With 10 games to go I found myself idly wondering what our general record is like in the last 10 games of seasons which matter. Did some quick checks:
89-90: 15pts
91-92: 18pts
98-99: 17pts (wasn't enough for a CL place)
99-00: 12pts (was enough thanks to Bradford's amazing efforts against Liverpool)
09-10: 15pts
05-06: 9pts (we're 1 point ahead of where we were this time that season, we'd have needed 23pts from 30 to finish 2nd (21 if we'd beaten 2nd place Sheff Utd instead of drawn))
16-17: 10pts (Fuck Garry Monk)

I've turned it over to stats for some proper analysis across our history. Every cunt has been banging on about burnout, no cunt has really mentioned our uncanny ability to fall just short.


Appreciate the effort Phil, but surely this is meaningless unless you place it in the context of ppg for the particular season. And cherry picking seasons is a bit dodgy too.

I might have a look at how our league position changed in the final ten games (or maybe I won't, just in case!)

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dirty leeds
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 12:13 pm
Location: London

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby dirty leeds » Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:34 am

the flying pig wrote:Cheers P, just put you on ignore :thumbl:


:mrgreen: Harsh.

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Devi
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2013 6:15 pm
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Devi » Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:42 am

On a (related?) issue, I got to thinking yesterday about MB as a manager, and where he may / may not excel, in terms of league vs cup competitions (on the basis that the playoffs are in essence, a two round cup competition) and whether that might suggest where we'd "need" to finish.

I shouldn't have looked at wiki.

Copa America? Runner up.
Copa Libertadores? Runner up.
Europa League? Runner up.
FA Cup 18/19? Fell at the first.
EFL Cup 18/19? Fell at the second.
Olympic gold, winner, 25 years ago...

Arse. Seems we need to get automatic.
I like it. What is it?

Wakefield White
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 11:57 pm
Location: t'other side o't hills

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Wakefield White » Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:42 am

eric olthwaite wrote:
Phil LUFC wrote:With 10 games to go I found myself idly wondering what our general record is like in the last 10 games of seasons which matter. Did some quick checks:
89-90: 15pts
91-92: 18pts
98-99: 17pts (wasn't enough for a CL place)
99-00: 12pts (was enough thanks to Bradford's amazing efforts against Liverpool)
09-10: 15pts
05-06: 9pts (we're 1 point ahead of where we were this time that season, we'd have needed 23pts from 30 to finish 2nd (21 if we'd beaten 2nd place Sheff Utd instead of drawn))
16-17: 10pts (Fuck Garry Monk)

I've turned it over to stats for some proper analysis across our history. Every cunt has been banging on about burnout, no cunt has really mentioned our uncanny ability to fall just short.


Appreciate the effort Phil, but surely this is meaningless unless you place it in the context of ppg for the particular season. And cherry picking seasons is a bit dodgy too.

I might have a look at how our league position changed in the final ten games (or maybe I won't, just in case!)


For context
94-95: 21 points
98-99: 19 points (by my count, from wikipedia)
00-01: 25 points
Fuck you Rod Liddle, fuck you in your cunting fuckface you fucking third division cunt!
(courtesy of Ponte)

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Phil LUFC
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2008 12:26 pm
Location: Scunthorpe

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Phil LUFC » Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:54 am

eric olthwaite wrote:
Phil LUFC wrote:With 10 games to go I found myself idly wondering what our general record is like in the last 10 games of seasons which matter. Did some quick checks:
89-90: 15pts
91-92: 18pts
98-99: 17pts (wasn't enough for a CL place)
99-00: 12pts (was enough thanks to Bradford's amazing efforts against Liverpool)
09-10: 15pts
05-06: 9pts (we're 1 point ahead of where we were this time that season, we'd have needed 23pts from 30 to finish 2nd (21 if we'd beaten 2nd place Sheff Utd instead of drawn))
16-17: 10pts (Fuck Garry Monk)

I've turned it over to stats for some proper analysis across our history. Every cunt has been banging on about burnout, no cunt has really mentioned our uncanny ability to fall just short.


Appreciate the effort Phil, but surely this is meaningless unless you place it in the context of ppg for the particular season. And cherry picking seasons is a bit dodgy too.

I might have a look at how our league position changed in the final ten games (or maybe I won't, just in case!)

Indeed, exactly why I turned it over to stats for a proper view. I think it's fair to exclude seasons battling at the bottom, they're only going to lower the averages, unless some clever cunt can normalise in a meaningful way. Equally for any season (such as last) where we had nothing to play for long before the end.

Certainly the context of whether the last 10 is notably worse than the preceding 36 is critical (or whatever, 28 or 32 in some years).

There are some shocking examples in the list but it's by no means complete (the other 2 league 1 years and the first back in the championship, most if not all of the Revie era), there must be some amazingly positive finishes under pressure somewhere in our history.

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eric olthwaite
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 10:14 pm
Location: Over there, behind that bush

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby eric olthwaite » Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:56 am

You utter bastard Phil, you've made me do this now.

Year / Posn after 36 / (change) / Final posn

2018 13 (0) 13
2017 4 (-3) 7
2016 13 (0) 13
2015 13 (-2) 15
2014 13 (-2) 15
2013 10 (-3) 13
2012 10 (-4) 14
2011 5 (-2) 7
2010 2 (0) 2 L1
2009 5 (+1) 4 L1

:shock:

I can therefore pretty much confirm that Leeds United Football Club are a team of relentless professional chokers.

If it's any consolation, our performance when there's something to play for appears very marginally better.

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eric olthwaite
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 10:14 pm
Location: Over there, behind that bush

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby eric olthwaite » Thu Mar 14, 2019 7:24 am

Remaining opponents, current position in form table:

Sheff U 1
Millwall 15
Birmingham 22
PNE 4
Sheff Weds 5
Wigan 24
Brentford 6
Villa 7
Ipswich 18

Not that this means much really, QPR are 23

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dirty leeds
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 12:13 pm
Location: London

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby dirty leeds » Thu Mar 14, 2019 8:07 am

eric olthwaite wrote:Remaining opponents, current position in form table:

Sheff U 1
Millwall 15
Birmingham 22
PNE 4
Sheff Weds 5
Wigan 24
Brentford 6
Villa 7
Ipswich 18

Not that this means much really, QPR are 23


PNE and Brentford are the tests. Anybody at home, I'm more bullish about. If we do beat Sheff U, it's going to feel very close. While we are playing Millwall and Brum, Sheff U face Bristol at home and Preston away. It's a chance to pull clean away... or, indeed, make up lost ground, if we fuck up on Sat. [And even Norwich are away at Boro quite soon.]
Oops, there goes another set of clean-ons.

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eric olthwaite
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Location: Over there, behind that bush

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby eric olthwaite » Fri Mar 15, 2019 1:25 pm

Ben Mayhew, the stats blog fella, says here that we're 90% certain of auto if we beat Blunts, 50/50 if we lose.

No pressure there, then.

:puker:

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Ponte
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 9:36 am
Location: Between a rock and a hard place.

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Ponte » Fri Mar 15, 2019 2:31 pm

eric olthwaite wrote:Ben Mayhew, the stats blog fella, says here that we're 90% certain of auto if we beat Blunts, 50/50 if we lose.

No pressure there, then.

:puker:


Football is constantly on my mind atm. It's horrible
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Hmmm.


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