Occasional statto attack

Discussion on LUFC and absolutely anything... welcome to the Dark Side
User avatar
Phil LUFC
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2008 12:26 pm
Location: Scunthorpe

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Phil LUFC » Mon Feb 25, 2019 7:37 am

ChairmanMeaow wrote:Looks like we’re mathetically safe if we win Tuesday.
Safe in Feb? Been a while

Being a sad twat I played around with a predictor yesterday to confirm no-one is mathematically safe so far (thought various head to heads somewhere might take too many points out for someone).

A win in Tuesday would make us the first to achieve that this season as well as putting us back top. It's probably enough to make Norwich safe too, wasn't many spare points after getting everyone to at least 66 (bar the current bottom 2).

User avatar
Devi
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2013 6:15 pm
Location: Crystal Palarse

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Devi » Mon Feb 25, 2019 8:17 am

Yeah, but we can still make 15th, right?
I like it. What is it?

User avatar
Phil LUFC
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2008 12:26 pm
Location: Scunthorpe

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Phil LUFC » Tue Feb 26, 2019 11:32 am



Incidentally, his xG model (expected goals) puts us at almost 70% for top 2. Was pushing 80% a month ago though.

Wakefield White
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 11:57 pm
Location: t'other side o't hills

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Wakefield White » Tue Feb 26, 2019 12:25 pm

Phil LUFC wrote:https://twitter.com/experimental361/status/1100315189306634240?s=19

Incidentally, his xG model (expected goals) puts us at almost 70% for top 2. Was pushing 80% a month ago though.


What % are Norwich and the blades?
Fuck you Rod Liddle, fuck you in your cunting fuckface you fucking third division cunt!
(courtesy of Ponte)

User avatar
Phil LUFC
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2008 12:26 pm
Location: Scunthorpe

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Phil LUFC » Tue Feb 26, 2019 2:03 pm

Wakefield White wrote:
Phil LUFC wrote:https://twitter.com/experimental361/status/1100315189306634240?s=19

Incidentally, his xG model (expected goals) puts us at almost 70% for top 2. Was pushing 80% a month ago though.


What % are Norwich and the blades?

This is the most recent I can find, think there may have been a Twitter only update:
https://experimental361.com/2019/02/17/ ... -feb-2019/

User avatar
Blackwhite
Joined: Sun Feb 24, 2008 1:07 am
Location: Arse end of nowhere

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Blackwhite » Tue Feb 26, 2019 3:37 pm

I'm counting the minutes until you have to explain this to someone, and tell Kenny why the sky is blue.
You know, I'm sick of following my dreams, man. I'm just going to ask where they're going and hook up with 'em later.

User avatar
kennyb41
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 7:10 am

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby kennyb41 » Tue Feb 26, 2019 3:52 pm

Probably be better off explaining why the human body is building up resistance to antibiotics so rapidly in the short time they've been available narcissistic bigot and how we might extend life again to 140 years, clever fckers that we are.

Got any footy analysis for us yet ? Thought not Hey no doubt you'll drag that from the internet as well like all your other utter shyte....it's what we're expecting, shall I eagerly await your QPR oneliners again :mrgreen:

The wannabe loved self styled medicine man....don't make me fckin laugh.

:basket:
Just coz you're paranoid doesn't mean people aren't after you....Show me a good loser and i'll show you a fcking loser...I owe I owe it's off to work I go.

User avatar
ChairmanMeaow
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2008 8:26 pm

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby ChairmanMeaow » Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:28 am

Mathematically safe! :cheers:

User avatar
Blackwhite
Joined: Sun Feb 24, 2008 1:07 am
Location: Arse end of nowhere

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Blackwhite » Sat Mar 02, 2019 8:09 am

ChairmanMeaow wrote:Mathematically safe! :cheers:

:mrgreen:
You know, I'm sick of following my dreams, man. I'm just going to ask where they're going and hook up with 'em later.

Mr Reality
Joined: Mon Apr 02, 2012 2:17 pm

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Mr Reality » Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:52 am

Phil LUFC wrote:https://twitter.com/experimental361/status/1100315189306634240?s=19

Incidentally, his xG model (expected goals) puts us at almost 70% for top 2. Was pushing 80% a month ago though.


87 looks about right.

So 20 more should do it.

User avatar
eric olthwaite
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 10:14 pm
Location: Over there, behind that bush

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby eric olthwaite » Sat Mar 02, 2019 12:20 pm

I feel like the likely points total has been falling because all the top teams are taking points off each other. Think all the top three would struggle to get to 90 now, which is historically pretty low. On current PPG projections:

6 Fingers 89.29
LUFC 88.06
Blunts 86.59
Smog 79.45
WBA 78.86
Brizzle 73.88
FL’s etc 71.09

Usual caveats; obviously GD plays a part when points aren’t actually to two decimal places and variance will be greater in a short run of games.

But it does look like last night may have made it a three horse race.

User avatar
eric olthwaite
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 10:14 pm
Location: Over there, behind that bush

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby eric olthwaite » Sat Mar 02, 2019 1:10 pm

I went back to the 2012 table again.

Around 33-35 games

Final table

What's interesting is that three top teams separate out at just this point in the season, and then all three change positions pretty much all the way to the line. Top two finish on 89/88.

The good news (I suppose) is that the team which finishes third on significantly higher points - West Ham - went up through the playoffs.

It's going to be a wild ride, this, all the way into April.

Mr Reality
Joined: Mon Apr 02, 2012 2:17 pm

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Mr Reality » Sat Mar 02, 2019 1:30 pm

eric olthwaite wrote:I feel like the likely points total has been falling because all the top teams are taking points off each other. Think all the top three would struggle to get to 90 now, which is historically pretty low. On current PPG projections:

6 Fingers 89.29
LUFC 88.06
Blunts 86.59
Smog 79.45
WBA 78.86
Brizzle 73.88
FL’s etc 71.09

Usual caveats; obviously GD plays a part when points aren’t actually to two decimal places and variance will be greater in a short run of games.

But it does look like last night may have made it a three horse race.


I wouldn't rule west brom out Just yet. With Gayle and Rodriguez they have the fire power to put a run of wins together. Last night I think they were taken back by the ferocity after the short turn around from QPR.

User avatar
eric olthwaite
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 10:14 pm
Location: Over there, behind that bush

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby eric olthwaite » Sat Mar 02, 2019 2:06 pm

I think the point about WBA is that they may have the division’s best squad. But they have an inexperienced manager and they have not, all season, shown themselves capable of putting a proper challenging run together. I don’t know what circumstances now could cause them to find another gear.

User avatar
Phil LUFC
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2008 12:26 pm
Location: Scunthorpe

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Phil LUFC » Sat Mar 02, 2019 3:41 pm

eric olthwaite wrote:I think the point about WBA is that they may have the division’s best squad. But they have an inexperienced manager and they have not, all season, shown themselves capable of putting a proper challenging run together. I don’t know what circumstances now could cause them to find another gear.

Indeed. I'd say Harvey Barnes was their most influential player this season too (and he's back at Leicester now).

User avatar
Mustafaster
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 10:02 am
Location: PC Brigade House.

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Mustafaster » Sat Mar 02, 2019 4:19 pm

eric olthwaite wrote:I think the point about WBA is that they may have the division’s best squad. But they have an inexperienced manager and they have not, all season, shown themselves capable of putting a proper challenging run together. I don’t know what circumstances now could cause them to find another gear.

True.
Their squad is very good, but the manager's rubbish.
Playing 4-3-3 against us is suicide. We'll always dominate against a 3 in midfield.
They'll get top 6 but not autos.
Mirrors and copulation are abominable, since they both multiply the numbers of men.

User avatar
LSD&2Es
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 10:06 am
Location: Surrey

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby LSD&2Es » Sun Mar 03, 2019 12:23 am

The Chief: "trust me, you can't have too many years with a club like Leeds."

User avatar
Phil LUFC
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2008 12:26 pm
Location: Scunthorpe

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Phil LUFC » Fri Mar 08, 2019 12:34 pm

Stumbled on this a month late but worth sharing as it pretty much says we're the best in the division and are going up as fucking champions:
https://experimental361.com/2019/02/04/ ... -feb-2019/

User avatar
the flying pig
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 8:24 am

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby the flying pig » Fri Mar 08, 2019 12:52 pm

Phil LUFC wrote:Stumbled on this.... it pretty much says we're the best in the division and are going up as fucking champions:
https://experimental361.com/2019/02/04/ ... -feb-2019/


i'm not sure about the method or results, but i'm a skyscraper-sized fan of the conclusion :thumbl:

User avatar
eric olthwaite
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 10:14 pm
Location: Over there, behind that bush

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby eric olthwaite » Fri Mar 08, 2019 1:35 pm

Phil LUFC wrote:Stumbled on this a month late but worth sharing as it pretty much says we're the best in the division and are going up as fucking champions:
https://experimental361.com/2019/02/04/ ... -feb-2019/


Interesting. The pessimist's take-aways from there are:

- Shots taken per goal scored is higher than our three rivals
- Shots faced per goals conceded is lower than those three, too.

Stating the bleedin' obvious but convert a few more chances and tighten up a bit and we absolutely annihilate this division. If you apply the average of the other three's goals per shot to our number of shots we'd have scored 76 rather than 59. An extra goal every other game: that would have to be worth at least another ten points, never mind the GD.

It's all a bit dubious if you don't know where our missed shots came from and why we conceded, but it does look as if we're doing everything right in the middle of the park at least.


Return to “The Square Ball”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 13 guests