Occasional statto attack

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Devi
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Devi » Thu Jan 03, 2019 2:17 pm

You went there, Eric. You only bloody went there.

I FIFY though.

you have to go back to 2005 for a team in first after 26 games (Ipswich) to miss out on auto. I would go as far as to suggest we will see a collapse of our inevitably usual proportions to miss the playoffs from here.


Oh. And then there's this.

And we know what happened next.
I like it. What is it?

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eric olthwaite
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby eric olthwaite » Thu Jan 03, 2019 2:23 pm

Devi wrote:And we know what happened next.


We finished in the playoffs?

:rabbit:

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Quiffy
Joined: Thu May 01, 2008 6:56 pm

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Quiffy » Tue Jan 08, 2019 12:38 pm



this relates to one of bielsa's post match comments about how 'inefficient' we were in front of goal, meaning that to score enough goals we have to create more than enough chances, which in turn makes us more vulnerable at the back because of the tactics necessary to create those extra chances.

i do expect the return of bamford to help sort this out, based on how comfortable he looks in front of goal for the u23's, trouble is his recurring knee injury. a bit of research shows bamford joined leeds 6 weeks after bielsa joined, so i presume his 'efficiency' was one of the factors behind us signing him.
increasing doubt, decreasing hope, even my imaginary friend went and changed his mind.

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eric olthwaite
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby eric olthwaite » Tue Jan 08, 2019 1:55 pm

Quiffy wrote:https://twitter.com/LUFCDATA/status/1082597433400545280

this relates to one of bielsa's post match comments about how 'inefficient' we were in front of goal, meaning that to score enough goals we have to create more than enough chances, which in turn makes us more vulnerable at the back because of the tactics necessary to create those extra chances.

i do expect the return of bamford to help sort this out, based on how comfortable he looks in front of goal for the u23's, trouble is his recurring knee injury. a bit of research shows bamford joined leeds 6 weeks after bielsa joined, so i presume his 'efficiency' was one of the factors behind us signing him.


I think one aspect of our poor conversion ratio is the tendency to try and walk it in? One thing I noticed at QPR was that the whole of their front line was quick and they caught us on the break several times, but were generally too shit to score. We're generally not that quick, and the approach to build-up passing seems to lead to us always attacking 11 men in the final third because we give them time to get back. Arguably teams playing teams further down the table put less effort into tracking back, I suppose.

I sometimes wonder whether there might be a bit of a mismatch between Bielsaball and the level we're playing at? What we need is players with the exceptional skill level needed to work the ball through packed defences, and a few of ours aren't that.

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Blackwhite
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Blackwhite » Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:07 pm

Don't know if it's just my shit interpretation but in a few games lately where the opposing team defend at the hallway line continually, occasionally Douglas or someone will think fuck it and dink a long ball into the gap to run onto. It always seems to induce real panic, and shamefully I wish we did it a bit more often, mixing it up amongst the glorious Bielsaball.
You know, I'm sick of following my dreams, man. I'm just going to ask where they're going and hook up with 'em later.

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Ontolly
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Ontolly » Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:13 pm

Blackwhite wrote:Don't know if it's just my shit interpretation but in a few games lately where the opposing team defend at the hallway line continually, occasionally Douglas or someone will think fuck it and dink a long ball into the gap to run onto. It always seems to induce real panic, and shamefully I wish we did it a bit more often, mixing it up amongst the glorious Bielsaball.

Douglas tried that once too often and now he's "injured". We'll have no mixing up of anything in these parts thank you very much :thumbd:
The only thing we knew for sure about Henry Porter was that his name wasn't Henry Porter.

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Phil LUFC
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2008 12:26 pm
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Phil LUFC » Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:24 pm

eric olthwaite wrote:
Quiffy wrote:https://twitter.com/LUFCDATA/status/1082597433400545280

this relates to one of bielsa's post match comments about how 'inefficient' we were in front of goal, meaning that to score enough goals we have to create more than enough chances, which in turn makes us more vulnerable at the back because of the tactics necessary to create those extra chances.

i do expect the return of bamford to help sort this out, based on how comfortable he looks in front of goal for the u23's, trouble is his recurring knee injury. a bit of research shows bamford joined leeds 6 weeks after bielsa joined, so i presume his 'efficiency' was one of the factors behind us signing him.


I think one aspect of our poor conversion ratio is the tendency to try and walk it in? One thing I noticed at QPR was that the whole of their front line was quick and they caught us on the break several times, but were generally too shit to score. We're generally not that quick, and the approach to build-up passing seems to lead to us always attacking 11 men in the final third because we give them time to get back. Arguably teams playing teams further down the table put less effort into tracking back, I suppose.

I sometimes wonder whether there might be a bit of a mismatch between Bielsaball and the level we're playing at? What we need is players with the exceptional skill level needed to work the ball through packed defences, and a few of ours aren't that.

Isn't that just typical good team vs worse team though? Early in the season (and last come to think of it) when all things are equal, every team is going out there to implement their own style and see what happens but it doesn't take long before a high number of teams are setting up to nullify what they believe to be a superior opponent. More often than not we're facing teams who have no real intention of being drawn out because Bielsaball. We could really do with Klich finding his outside the box shooting boots again.

QPR was a bit different but our 2nd string is clearly not on the same level as our best XI (given the injuries at least). Derby should also be quite open.

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Quiffy
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Quiffy » Tue Jan 08, 2019 3:00 pm

eric olthwaite wrote:I think one aspect of our poor conversion ratio is the tendency to try and walk it in? One thing I noticed at QPR was that the whole of their front line was quick and they caught us on the break several times, but were generally too shit to score. We're generally not that quick, and the approach to build-up passing seems to lead to us always attacking 11 men in the final third because we give them time to get back. Arguably teams playing teams further down the table put less effort into tracking back, I suppose.

I sometimes wonder whether there might be a bit of a mismatch between Bielsaball and the level we're playing at? What we need is players with the exceptional skill level needed to work the ball through packed defences, and a few of ours aren't that.


yeah i'd agree we're guilty of taking too many touches in and around the box. samu, as inventive as he was, definitely used to sometimes faff too long. there was a certain decisiveness about bamford's goals in those recent games that made me think he could make a big difference here, he got his shots off early, it doesn't allow the keepers chance to get their footing and positions set, or defenders as much chance to block.

klich seems to have lost his shooting boots as well, so defenders know what we're going to try and do most of the time.

i also keep thinking back to the signing of chapman at the end of '89, which may turn out to be a foolish comparison, i just remember being on the kop a couple of times back then and his early contributions definitely didn't please. he looked clumsy but if he saw a chance he'd go for it.
increasing doubt, decreasing hope, even my imaginary friend went and changed his mind.

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dirty leeds
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby dirty leeds » Tue Jan 08, 2019 3:28 pm

Quiffy wrote:klich seems to have lost his shooting boots as well, so defenders know what we're going to try and do most of the time.


I agree: he has. He will score this weekend, though, against FL'sDC. It's decided.

Also agree with you on Bamford. He appears to do his stuff early and with confidence; takes people ever-so-slightly by surprise. We could really do with him asap.

Chieftain626
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Chieftain626 » Tue Jan 08, 2019 3:51 pm

dirty leeds wrote:
Quiffy wrote:klich seems to have lost his shooting boots as well, so defenders know what we're going to try and do most of the time.


I agree: he has. He will score this weekend, though, against FL'sDC. It's decided.

Also agree with you on Bamford. He appears to do his stuff early and with confidence; takes people ever-so-slightly by surprise. We could really do with him asap.


Seems like he hasn't connected on his shots recently, always scuffing them or miss timing.

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Quiffy
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Quiffy » Sun Jan 13, 2019 3:03 pm



and the last time we didn't use an academy player, in 2009, our manager was an academy player.
increasing doubt, decreasing hope, even my imaginary friend went and changed his mind.

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eric olthwaite
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby eric olthwaite » Tue Jan 22, 2019 8:37 pm

18 games to get 36 points

12 wins 6 losses
11 wins 3 draws 4 losses
10 wins 6 draws 2 losses
9 wins 9 draws

Bit scary, when you see it written down like that.

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Devi
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Devi » Tue Jan 22, 2019 8:41 pm

Put another way, 2ppg

We’re at 1.93 to date.

So we have to do better than the top placed team to get to the promised land...

Stats, eh?
I like it. What is it?

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eric olthwaite
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby eric olthwaite » Tue Jan 22, 2019 9:04 pm

Well, yeah. I think 90’s probably good for first but almost guaranteed safe for second.

We need 1.96 for the season, currently on 1.93 . Win this weekend and we’re back up to 1.96. Fine margins and all that.

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Phil LUFC
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Phil LUFC » Tue Jan 22, 2019 9:19 pm

eric olthwaite wrote:18 games to get 36 points

12 wins 6 losses
11 wins 3 draws 4 losses
10 wins 6 draws 2 losses
9 wins 9 draws

Bit scary, when you see it written down like that.

I've put more thought into this kind of thing than is probably healthy recently (see twatter).

The way I see it, the top end looks bang on average (maybe we're a few points short of average for league leaders), 87 seems likely to be enough for 2nd at this stage. On an assumption everyone will drop at least 10 more points, no-one outside the current top 6 is reaching that margin. Bristol would need something better than Fulham last season, Hull need to win all but 2 of their 18.

The above looks a lot but every other team needs at least a little bit more than that basically. It's ours to lose (and that is exactly what worries me). If we're playing catch-up in 3 games time I'll be very worried.

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jackos
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby jackos » Tue Jan 22, 2019 9:45 pm

If we make it to 2nd of March and we're still in the top two I reckon we're home. If we pick up 6pts from our next two games it will look very decent as well.

If we lose our next two we're fucked .....

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eric olthwaite
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby eric olthwaite » Tue Jan 22, 2019 10:56 pm

jackos wrote:If we make it to 2nd of March and we're still in the top two I reckon we're home. If we pick up 6pts from our next two games it will look very decent as well.

If we lose our next two we're fucked .....


Yeah, Rotherham's a must win. We need to take advantage of Norwich vs Blades, we need a win to help break the sequence and - more than anything - if we don't get three points from games like this we're screwed. It's not hyper-critical that we beat Norwich and Boro but it would put a ton of pressure on us if we lose both.

A couple of weeks ago I was cheering the 'softer' games towards the end of the season, now I'm feeling like I'd like to bank a few of these bastards right now to give us a break.

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Quiffy
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Quiffy » Sun Jan 27, 2019 12:06 pm

updated to today...
Quiffy wrote:a half by half analysis, as if each half was independent, to get an idea of the influence of the half time teamtalk/tactical changes/substitutions/fitness.
team, fh result, sh result
stoke, won, draw
derby, won, won
rotherham, draw, won
swansea, draw, draw
norwich, won, won
middlesboro, draw, draw
millwall, draw, draw
preston, won, won
brum, lost, won
sheff wed, lost, won
hull, draw, won
brentford, draw, draw
blackburn, drew, lost
ipswich, won, won
forest, lost, won
wigan, draw, won
west brom, draw, lost
bristol, draw, won
reading, draw, won
sheff U, draw, won
qpr, draw, won
bolton, draw, won
villa, lost, won
blackburn, won, drew
hull, lost, lost
forest, lost lost
derby, won, won
stoke, drew, lost
rotherham, lost won


that's all of the league games and if they were independent events, where the result at half time didn't influence the second half in any way....
first half = 36 points
second half = 60 points

note: we've benefited from half times more in recent games, it wasn't a pattern in the first few games.


so if we'd had 58 individual halves of football, we'd have claimed 36 points from the first half games and 60 points from the second half games. In other words we're 66.7% more successful in the second half.
increasing doubt, decreasing hope, even my imaginary friend went and changed his mind.

Mr Reality
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Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Mr Reality » Sun Jan 27, 2019 12:18 pm

Interesting although that is looking at each half as an individual where as you can argue that what happens in the first half can influence what happens in the second with subs/cards/tactical changes. Like yesterday it was noticeable how everyone seemed to passing quicker in the second half compared to the first.

I also think superior fitness and conditioning must play a part particularly in the stat about come backs and scoring first.

rss1969
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2013 3:52 pm

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby rss1969 » Sun Jan 27, 2019 8:01 pm

Mr Reality wrote:Interesting although that is looking at each half as an individual where as you can argue that what happens in the first half can influence what happens in the second with subs/cards/tactical changes. Like yesterday it was noticeable how everyone seemed to passing quicker in the second half compared to the first.

I also think superior fitness and conditioning must play a part particularly in the stat about come backs and scoring first.


Agreed. I am hoping that superior coaching also plays a big part. The players know that they need to keep doing the same things.......maybe with more urgency/tempo/care in the 2nd half but we play the same way rather than ripping it all up with 30 minutes to go and start playing hoofball.

It looked to me that Klich started making more of his early season runs 2nd half and hopefully this will lead to more of the same from him in the games to come.


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