Occasional statto attack

Phil LUFC · Postby **Phil LUFC** » Fri Mar 17, 2017 9:35 pm

Phil LUFC wrote:
Phil LUFC wrote:
Phil LUFC wrote:EDIT: There's 2 games Tuesday:
Brentford v Wolves = Brentford/Draw
Fulham v Blackburn = Fulham

0 out of 2 so far .

Undeterred by that:
Bristol v Huddersfield = Away win
Sheff Wed v Reading = Home win

0 for 4 as it stands :thumbl:

.

Blackwhite · Postby **Blackwhite** » Fri Mar 17, 2017 9:41 pm

Carry on Jonah, seems to be going very well.

Ponte · Postby **Ponte** » Fri Mar 17, 2017 9:53 pm

This is better viewing than my predictions.

Phil LUFC · Postby **Phil LUFC** » Fri Mar 17, 2017 11:02 pm

Ponte wrote:This is better viewing than my predictions.

Great isn't it? Even I'm enjoying it!

This is tomorrow:
Blackburn Rovers v Preston North End = Draw
Nottingham Forest v Derby County = Draw
Birmingham City v Newcastle United = Newcastle
Burton Albion v Brentford = Draw
Cardiff City v Ipswich Town = Draw
Fulham v Wolverhampton Wanderers = Draw
Norwich City v Barnsley = Norwich/Draw
Queens Park Rangers v Rotherham United = QPR
Wigan Athletic v Aston Villa = Draw
Leeds United v Brighton & Hove Albion = Draw

I think I have too much emphasis on the last 2 games, trying to weight things a little as a win and a draw for Wolves couple with Fulham having drawn their last game is suggesting a draw in what must be a home banker? Too many projected draws in general. In summary, this is shit as a predictor :thumbl:

.

MightyWhite · Postby **MightyWhite** » Fri Mar 17, 2017 11:22 pm

*Fires up Bet365 account*

Phil LUFC · Postby **Phil LUFC** » Sun Mar 19, 2017 11:22 am

Phil LUFC wrote:
Ponte wrote:This is better viewing than my predictions.

Great isn't it? Even I'm enjoying it!

This is tomorrow:
Blackburn Rovers v Preston North End = Draw =
Nottingham Forest v Derby County = Draw =
Birmingham City v Newcastle United = Newcastle =
Burton Albion v Brentford = Draw = It was 3-3 going into the last 5 minutes
Cardiff City v Ipswich Town = Draw =
Fulham v Wolverhampton Wanderers = Draw = but
Norwich City v Barnsley = Norwich/Draw =
Queens Park Rangers v Rotherham United = QPR =
Wigan Athletic v Aston Villa = Draw =
Leeds United v Brighton & Hove Albion = Draw = but

I think I have too much emphasis on the last 2 games, trying to weight things a little as a win and a draw for Wolves couple with Fulham having drawn their last game is suggesting a draw in what must be a home banker? Too many projected draws in general. In summary, this is shit as a predictor .

Seems emphasising the most recent 2 games was the correct call after all, predicting an outright Wolves win would have been asking too much I think but happy to be highlighting it wasn't the home slam dunk it may have appeared. Still not a great prediction record but much improved on 0%.

Oh, for anyone who's downloaded the sheet, I didn't realise pasting in results from BBC would change formatting of those cells to locked. There's no password, may want to hit "unprotect sheet" on that tab.

Quiffy · Postby **Quiffy** » Tue May 30, 2017 5:43 pm

just throwing this one to the sharks....
another of my observations over recent years, including yesterday at wembley, is that the team that misses the first penalty in a penalty shoot out often seems to go on and win the shoot out.

i did a quick google of this and only found that the team that shoots first has a 60% chance of winning but failed to find anything else. anyone know a good place to look?

Man Called Sun · Postby **Man Called Sun** » Tue May 30, 2017 6:13 pm

Yes, that book that was out a couple of years ago addressed this. The one about penalties. Shit, forgot its name.

Mr Reality · Postby **Mr Reality** » Tue May 30, 2017 6:43 pm

12 yards.

Mr Reality · Postby **Mr Reality** » Tue May 30, 2017 6:45 pm

There has been talk of shifting the order of pens.
ABBAABBAAB

Phil LUFC · Postby **Phil LUFC** » Tue May 30, 2017 6:51 pm

Mr Reality wrote:There has been talk of shifting the order of pens.
ABBAABBAAB

Aye, then when it gets to sudden death playing until someone is 2 clear of I understood correctly. I like it.

Quiffy · Postby **Quiffy** » Tue May 30, 2017 7:11 pm

Man Called Sun wrote:Yes, that book that was out a couple of years ago addressed this. The one about penalties. Shit, forgot its name.

Mr Reality wrote:12 yards.

ta

Ponte · Postby **Ponte** » Tue May 30, 2017 7:33 pm

Phil LUFC wrote:
Mr Reality wrote:There has been talk of shifting the order of pens.
ABBAABBAAB

Aye, then when it gets to sudden death playing until someone is 2 clear of I understood correctly. I like it.

Aye, a bit like tennis.

Blackwhite · Postby **Blackwhite** » Tue May 30, 2017 10:10 pm

Mr Reality wrote:There has been talk of shifting the order of pens.
ABBAABBAAB

Winner Takes It All?

Phil LUFC · Postby **Phil LUFC** » Wed May 31, 2017 6:15 am

Blackwhite wrote:
Mr Reality wrote:There has been talk of shifting the order of pens.
ABBAABBAAB

Winner Takes It All?

Aye, all the prize Money Money Money.

I'll get my coat.

eric olthwaite · Postby **eric olthwaite** » Tue Nov 21, 2017 9:38 am

Statto.com seems to have died. Does anyone know of an alternative site which lets you look at previous seasons' tables after eg 17 games?

Regarding my thesis that seasons tend towards one of two options: high points for promotion = low points for relegation, or low points for promotion = high points for relegation, gut feeling says that this is going to lean towards the former, and that possibly makes it harder for us to make top six.

the flying pig · Postby **the flying pig** » Tue Nov 21, 2017 9:41 am

eric olthwaite wrote:Statto.com seems to have died. Does anyone know of an alternative site which lets you look at previous seasons' tables after eg 17 games?...

looks like this does: https://www.11v11.com/league-tables/lea ... uary-2015/

Phil LUFC · Postby **Phil LUFC** » Tue Nov 21, 2017 9:54 am

eric olthwaite wrote:Statto.com seems to have died. Does anyone know of an alternative site which lets you look at previous seasons' tables after eg 17 games?

Regarding my thesis that seasons tend towards one of two options: high points for promotion = low points for relegation, or low points for promotion = high points for relegation, gut feeling says that this is going to lean towards the former, and that possibly makes it harder for us to make top six.

Saw a this season vs last tweet the other day, 7th with identical points for us at this stage. Better GD this time round. Newcastle had a couple of points more than Wolves, Brighton a couple less than Sheff Utd.

Didn't look at the other end.

SimonB · Postby **SimonB** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 1:53 pm

Looking at the last 10 seasons of the championship and the average points per game needed to finish 2nd, 6th and 22nd you get the following

Finish 2nd

Highest PPG 2.02
Average PPG 1.89
Lowest PPG 1.72

Currently we are running at 1.57 PPG so to get to 2 PPG for automatic promotion we would need to average 2.4 PPG for the rest of the season.

Finish 6th

Highest PPG 1.74
Average PPG 1.60
Lowest PPG 1.48

For four of the last ten seasons our 1.57 PPG would give us the play offs, but not in the last three seasons. To hit 1.74 PPG we need to average 1.88 PPG

Finish 22nd

Highest PPG 1.17
Average PPG 0.99
Lowest PPG 0.87

So for us to be at least safe we need to average 0.8 PPG for the rest of the season

SimonB · Postby **SimonB** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 2:08 pm

Looking at the last five seasons and the table at the end of the year as compared to the end of the season -

In four of five years the team at the top on New Years Eve won the championship
All teams automatically promoted were in the top 6 on NYE
Only 6 teams in 5 years have fallen out of the top six having been in the top 6 at NYE