Occasional statto attack

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MightyWhite
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 11:38 am
Location: Notts

Occasional statto attack

Postby MightyWhite » Thu Mar 09, 2017 1:30 pm

Tommy wrote:I'd take a draw against QPR. They're in good form and their away record is very good.


Come on Tommy, even 17th placed Leeds would be looking for a win in this one!

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eric olthwaite
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 10:14 pm
Location: Over there, behind that bush

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby eric olthwaite » Thu Mar 09, 2017 3:56 pm

Phil LUFC wrote:While listening to last nights game, I got a bit carried away, t'was a tough listen and something had to be done or I'd have no finger nails this morning!

QPR up next, they're on their best run of form (over prior 6 games) since they won the opening 2 games of the season, 4 wins 2 defeats in the last 6, we have 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in the same period:
Leeds v QPR.png

Its not a gimme.

I'll probably post a similar image ahead of each remaining game (if anyone's interested) but if anyone wants to maintain their own copy, here's the file, just populate W/L/D for each team at the top.
Championship Form 16-17.xlsx


Phil, for your next trick I'd like a result predictor for remaining games for the top seven, weighted to take account of:
- Each term's performance home and away
- Performance against top / middle / bottom thirds reflecting each of their opponents' current status.

End of the weekend will do; no rush.

:lol:

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Tommy
Joined: Thu Dec 09, 2010 7:07 pm
Location: UK

Occasional statto attack

Postby Tommy » Thu Mar 09, 2017 5:34 pm

MightyWhite wrote:
Tommy wrote:I'd take a draw against QPR. They're in good form and their away record is very good.


Come on Tommy, even 17th placed Leeds would be looking for a win in this one!

And we'd be lucky to get one given QPR's form - specifically their away form. Nobody benefits from pretending our opposition are going to be easy to beat when form suggests otherwise. If we win, great but a draw wouldn't be a bad result.

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Tycipa
Joined: Thu Jul 19, 2012 4:39 pm

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Tycipa » Thu Mar 09, 2017 5:46 pm

There's no point in debating anything positive at the moment with Tommy, he's having a blue period. Even if he had the best sex of his life he'd wake up in the morning thinking he'd caught something and was going to die a horrible death.
The fact that we are not taking care of the planet, our children will pay the consequences. With football it will be the same because we're destroying football and in the future we'll see the negative effects. Those who have power are responsible for it.

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Phil LUFC
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2008 12:26 pm
Location: Scunthorpe

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Phil LUFC » Thu Mar 09, 2017 6:57 pm

eric olthwaite wrote:
Phil LUFC wrote:While listening to last nights game, I got a bit carried away, t'was a tough listen and something had to be done or I'd have no finger nails this morning!

QPR up next, they're on their best run of form (over prior 6 games) since they won the opening 2 games of the season, 4 wins 2 defeats in the last 6, we have 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in the same period:
Leeds v QPR.png

Its not a gimme.

I'll probably post a similar image ahead of each remaining game (if anyone's interested) but if anyone wants to maintain their own copy, here's the file, just populate W/L/D for each team at the top.
Championship Form 16-17.xlsx


Phil, for your next trick I'd like a result predictor for remaining games for the top seven, weighted to take account of:
- Each term's performance home and away
- Performance against top / middle / bottom thirds reflecting each of their opponents' current status.

End of the weekend will do; no rush.

:lol:

:mrgreen: That sounds like a lot of work. I won't pretend I wouldn't be interested in that, with an effort to factor in form of both teams at the time of those past games / forecast of next game dictating predicted form for game after etc... But suspect it's beyond me to produce something like that I can drive without a fuck of a lot of manual entry.

I'm thinking about it though, suspect 2 grids would do, one with dates, one with scores. I mostly fine the time while listening to midweek non televised away games, don't even know when the next one is.

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Blackwhite
Joined: Sun Feb 24, 2008 1:07 am
Location: Arse end of nowhere

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Blackwhite » Thu Mar 09, 2017 7:19 pm

Is there no end to the service you provide, Phil? Scores on the doors and all this too - makes up for the loss of Gaz and his bootstraps :salute:
You know, I'm sick of following my dreams, man. I'm just going to ask where they're going and hook up with 'em later.

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Phil LUFC
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2008 12:26 pm
Location: Scunthorpe

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Phil LUFC » Thu Mar 09, 2017 8:06 pm

I just piss about with spreadsheets, occasionally there's some inspiration but I'm not in Gaz' league of statting, not even close. Generally happy to waste days making something work to save regular hour bursts of maintenance.

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Phil LUFC
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2008 12:26 pm
Location: Scunthorpe

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Phil LUFC » Sun Mar 12, 2017 9:40 am

Right Eric, I realise you weren't actually expecting owt but I found myself thinking about it. You probably wanted a full forecast of results until the end of the season but I've come up with this completely made up nonsense, calculated using:
1. Overall form (last 6 and weighted towards most recent 2 games, then middle 2)
2. Home/Away form (whichever is relevant, weighted as above)
3. Overall points
4. Overall Home/Away points
5. Points against top/middle/bottom 8 (whichever is relevant)
6. Home/Away points against top/middle/bottom 8 (whichever is relevant)
7. GD for all 4 of those scenarios too

I've weighted it towards form.

This is QPR:
Leeds v QPR v3 1.png
Leeds v QPR v3 2.png


Of course, it also says Newcastle v Fulham should have been a draw :thumbl: .

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Phil LUFC
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2008 12:26 pm
Location: Scunthorpe

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Phil LUFC » Sun Mar 12, 2017 9:41 am

And this is what it says after yesterdays results for Brighton:
Leeds v Brighton v3 1.png
Leeds v Brighton v3 2.png

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eric olthwaite
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 10:14 pm
Location: Over there, behind that bush

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby eric olthwaite » Sun Mar 12, 2017 4:44 pm

:shock: :salute: :cheers:

'kin 'ell!

So is it now possible to run that to the end of the season and tell us how many points we end on?

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Phil LUFC
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2008 12:26 pm
Location: Scunthorpe

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Phil LUFC » Sun Mar 12, 2017 6:23 pm

Based on today's form, yes. Would take a while to extend assuming results for us and all teams we'll face.

I'll chuck up some predictions for all games in the next week and see how badly that works out before chucking the sheet up on here.

EDIT: There's 2 games Tuesday:
Brentford v Wolves = Brentford/Draw
Fulham v Blackburn = Fulham

This is what it says for our last 9:
Brighton (H) = Draw
Reading (A) = Draw
Brentford (A) = Draw
Preston (H) = Leeds/Draw
Newcastle (A) = Draw
Wolves (H) = Leeds
Burton (A) = Draw
Norwich (H) = Leeds
Wigan (A) = Leeds

So, 15-17 points apparently but can't say I see us remaining unbeaten. It'll look a lot less rosy if we lose a few and drop down that form table. There isn't really a sensible "punching above our weight" adjustment, not purely from results anyway.

It's a tough run in that, 4 teams in the top 8 then Brentford and Burton currently in the top half of the form table. Things will have changed by the time we play Wolves, Norwich and Wigan.

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eric olthwaite
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 10:14 pm
Location: Over there, behind that bush

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby eric olthwaite » Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:19 pm

Statting is clearly an east coast thing...

Anyway, I just did this on random and it put us ending in 6th with Fulham in 8th below Norwich. Not quite sure I see that :scratch:

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Tommy
Joined: Thu Dec 09, 2010 7:07 pm
Location: UK

Occasional statto attack

Postby Tommy » Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:33 pm

I did it too and the result looks basically akin to what I predicted in t'other thread a while ago. I'm going to post it in here so I can see how accurate it ends up being. My guess is the positions will end up being more or less right but not the points or goal difference (fuck knows how it calculated that).

Image

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eric olthwaite
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 10:14 pm
Location: Over there, behind that bush

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby eric olthwaite » Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:40 pm

We win every remaining game, all other results randomised. Fuck yeah!

Image

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Tommy
Joined: Thu Dec 09, 2010 7:07 pm
Location: UK

Occasional statto attack

Postby Tommy » Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:45 pm

Newcastle to finish with anywhere between 85 and 102 points then.

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Phil LUFC
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2008 12:26 pm
Location: Scunthorpe

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Phil LUFC » Mon Mar 13, 2017 5:02 pm

Reading seem most likely to slip out to me, in no small part due to having to play Wed then us in their next 2. They've lost 6 out of 6 away against teams in the top 8 so I'm predicting a Wednesday win on Friday night. Wednesday go to Barnsley after that, my sheet says draw but Barnsley will be well up for that one.

After we've all played 39 games (after April 1st), I'm expecting:
Fulham 69
Leeds 68
Reading 65
Sheff Wed 65

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welshwhite
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 9:15 pm

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby welshwhite » Mon Mar 13, 2017 5:43 pm

So, if we do go up what are the stats for the three promoted teams in the last five seasons not getting relegated back into the Championship. What could we expect to do?

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Phil LUFC
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2008 12:26 pm
Location: Scunthorpe

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Phil LUFC » Mon Mar 13, 2017 5:57 pm

welshwhite wrote:So, if we do go up what are the stats for the three promoted teams in the last five seasons not getting relegated back into the Championship. What could we expect to do?

Fuck it up in the worst possible way?

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welshwhite
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 9:15 pm

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby welshwhite » Mon Mar 13, 2017 6:15 pm

Phil LUFC wrote:
welshwhite wrote:So, if we do go up what are the stats for the three promoted teams in the last five seasons not getting relegated back into the Championship. What could we expect to do?

Fuck it up in the worst possible way?


Probably, Smaller supported clubs seem to do ok though. Suppose the biggest factor comes down to the ownership and how the club is run?

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eric olthwaite
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 10:14 pm
Location: Over there, behind that bush

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby eric olthwaite » Mon Mar 13, 2017 8:43 pm

welshwhite wrote:Smaller supported clubs seem to do ok though. Suppose the biggest factor comes down to the ownership and how the club is run?


Wonder if this is something to do with the idea that smaller clubs might not have a mahoosive history of debt and liabilities, and are therefore easier to build up with stability?


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