Occasional statto attack

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eric olthwaite
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 10:14 pm
Location: Over there, behind that bush

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby eric olthwaite » Tue Apr 16, 2019 2:52 pm

Interesting for the status of our opponents:


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Phil LUFC
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2008 12:26 pm
Location: Scunthorpe

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Phil LUFC » Sat Apr 20, 2019 2:31 pm

I thought I'd compare results for the top 3 against everyone in the division, see where each of us has been dropping points. Unsurprisingly it's results against Birmingham which really fucked us.

Sheff Utd have the better results against the top 6 picking up 17 points vs 14 for us and Norwich (though both us and Norwich still have to play Villa again), our GD is superior in that mini league.

We're 7 points better than Norwich and 12 better than Sheff Utd against sides in the top half, all of us have 1 left to play.

After that, we'd be top right down to games against 17th place QPR (though Norwich would be a point behind with a game in hand) but this is the batch of games which we've suffered most in - against 13th-18th we've taken 11 points from 33 (with Brentford still to play). Norwich have taken 21 from 30 with Blackburn and Stoke to play; Sheff Utd have taken 24 from 33 with Stoke to play.

Results against the bottom 6 are much of a muchness really but have cost us a 7 goal swing vs Sheff Utd despite them picking a point less.

Conclusion: Villa scare the fuck out of me right now but we do seem to be better suited to playing the divisions better teams.

Top3 Comparison.png

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AndyPaul
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2008 9:27 am
Location: Middlesbrough

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby AndyPaul » Sat Apr 20, 2019 4:46 pm

So what you're saying Phil is we're going up?

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Phil LUFC
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2008 12:26 pm
Location: Scunthorpe

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Phil LUFC » Sat Apr 20, 2019 5:08 pm

AndyPaul wrote:So what you're saying Phil is we're going up?

I'm mostly saying we would have some sort of a chance in the play-offs but we probably need to avoid Boro as they'll sit deep and frustrate us. The many dropped points against teams 13th-18th is probably because those are the sides who've shown a lack of ambition against us but have enough quality to execute that plan. Brentford the only team in that block who don't play that way (especially at home) :burnley: .

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Phil LUFC
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2008 12:26 pm
Location: Scunthorpe

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Phil LUFC » Sun May 05, 2019 4:27 pm

Copied across from today's CyberKop.

Experimental 361's scatter diagram updates from this season. In summary, in the last 8 games we've increased our dominance but taken a much smaller proportion of our chances AND our opponents have needed fewer chances to score. None of this is really news and all very worrying ahead of the playoffs.

Shots Per Game
We've crept up from 15 to 16 per game on average, I feel this has only gone up if anything in the last few games. Facing just under 10 per game consistently all season, the divisions best for the most part.
After 10 games
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After 17 games
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After 21 games
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After 30 games
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After 38 games
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Full Season
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Attacking Effectiveness
You can see easily how we've gone backwards by this measure. If these stats were done on blocks of games rather than season to date I suspect the reduction would be much more obvious. The drop off in the last 8 games really is alarming in context of how much its moved the needle in this view!
After 10 games
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After 17 games
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After 21 games
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After 30 games
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After 38 games
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Full Season
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Defensive Effectiveness
The amount of shots we face largely remains the same, the quantity of chances faced per goal massively dropped between December and February. It did recover between the Feb and March updates but the end of season view is back close to the Feb low point. The last 8 games have caused a noticeable swing, which is clearly alarming. I might need a mathematician to confirm this but I think this means the last 8 games have been fully 3.5 fewer shots faced per goal conceded (at about 5.5-6 shots per goal conceded).
After 10 games
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After 17 games
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After 21 games
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After 30 games
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After 38 games
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Full Season
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Expected Goals
This has only increased as the season has progressed in at attacking sense and remained largely static at the other end. We remain very good but we're not taking as many chances as we should whilst conceding too many of the few we ship.
After 10 games
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After 17 games
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After 21 games
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After 30 games
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After 38 games
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Full Season
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eric olthwaite
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 10:14 pm
Location: Over there, behind that bush

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby eric olthwaite » Sun May 05, 2019 9:04 pm

One for wild stats corner:



Since Klich played every game, I suppose he’s par. Tyler, though.

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Phil LUFC
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2008 12:26 pm
Location: Scunthorpe

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Phil LUFC » Mon May 06, 2019 4:39 pm

More from Experimental 365, attaching effectiveness by player, now and in December. Roofe/Bamford bang on where they're supposed to be, Klich and Hernandez above.
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Season end views for the rest of the top 6 for comparison:
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Blackwhite
Joined: Sun Feb 24, 2008 1:07 am
Location: Arse end of nowhere

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Blackwhite » Mon May 06, 2019 5:37 pm

Bamford being bang on where he needs to be would be a nice change.
You know, I'm sick of following my dreams, man. I'm just going to ask where they're going and hook up with 'em later.

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Still Hates Gordon Watson
Joined: Mon Oct 15, 2012 7:01 pm

Occasional statto attack

Postby Still Hates Gordon Watson » Thu May 16, 2019 9:06 pm

Not quite sure where this belongs but Sunderland getting past Portsmouth tonight has made it five out of five lower place teams getting through to Wembley so far. Wonder if that’s happened before? Not sure that Donny will complete the set at Charlton tomorrow, mind.

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Phil LUFC
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2008 12:26 pm
Location: Scunthorpe

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Phil LUFC » Sun May 19, 2019 8:51 pm

Seems Bielsa is a fan of the charts I posted links to the other week, when he says we need more chances than our rivals to score, it seems quite likely this is his data source.

Mr Reality
Joined: Mon Apr 02, 2012 2:17 pm

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Mr Reality » Sun May 19, 2019 8:59 pm

Maths is power.

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Oheddieeddie
Joined: Sat Mar 05, 2011 1:35 pm
Location: Tacky with sweat and poisonous particulates.

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Oheddieeddie » Sun May 19, 2019 9:37 pm

Mr Reality wrote:Maths is power.


X2

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eric olthwaite
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 10:14 pm
Location: Over there, behind that bush

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby eric olthwaite » Mon May 20, 2019 8:17 am

Well, pedantically, maths is just information, and information interpreted wisely might enable power.

But whatevs.

Mr Reality
Joined: Mon Apr 02, 2012 2:17 pm

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Mr Reality » Mon May 20, 2019 6:10 pm

eric olthwaite wrote:Well, pedantically, maths is just information, and information interpreted wisely might enable power.

But whatevs.


Amen.

Yeboah
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2012 11:06 am

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Yeboah » Mon May 20, 2019 6:14 pm

Oheddieeddie wrote:
Mr Reality wrote:Maths is power.


X2


Did Farke or Wilder use them?

Mr Reality
Joined: Mon Apr 02, 2012 2:17 pm

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Mr Reality » Mon May 20, 2019 6:22 pm

Yeboah wrote:
Oheddieeddie wrote:
Mr Reality wrote:Maths is power.


X2


Did Farke or Wilder use them?


You need to ask them.

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Devi
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2013 6:15 pm
Location: Crystal Palarse

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Devi » Mon May 20, 2019 6:38 pm

I thought physics was power, and maths was application?
I like it. What is it?

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Blackwhite
Joined: Sun Feb 24, 2008 1:07 am
Location: Arse end of nowhere

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Blackwhite » Mon May 20, 2019 7:44 pm

Devi wrote:I thought physics was power, and maths was application?

Biology is chemistry, chemistry is physics, physics is maths, and maths is...
You know, I'm sick of following my dreams, man. I'm just going to ask where they're going and hook up with 'em later.

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Mustafaster
Joined: Mon Feb 11, 2008 10:02 am
Location: PC Brigade House.

Re: Occasional statto attack

Postby Mustafaster » Mon May 20, 2019 11:20 pm

Blackwhite wrote:
Devi wrote:I thought physics was power, and maths was application?

Biology is chemistry, chemistry is physics, physics is maths, and maths is...

A language.
Everything is language.
Mirrors and copulation are abominable, since they both multiply the numbers of men.


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